2015 NHL Trade Deadline St. Louis Blues Assets
By Kate Cimini
The March 2nd trade deadline approaches and the St. Louis Blues have yet to make any large roster moves, which makes your average fan very, very nervous.
Fans and media alike begin to speculate. Twitter feeds are monitored, the nightly news is always on, and Google alerts for the NHL trade deadline and the St. Louis Blues are set.
The fact is, we have good reason to be nervous, even as the Blues seem sure to hold on to a playoff berth this season.
The St. Louis Blues are sitting second in the Western conference, with the Nashville Predators four points ahead of them in the standings and the Chicago Blackhawks four points behind. While Nashville faces a stretch of eight easy games, practically guaranteeing their continued domination of the Central Division, St. Louis faces down eight not-so easy games.
While Chicago has a nice mix, starting with the Red Wings, Avalanche and Bruins and ending with the Hurricanes, Oilers and Rangers, what this spells for St. Louis is a two week-long fight to hold on to their place in the standings, all the while taking the March 2nd trade deadline into consideration. Add to that we’ve got the fear that St. Louis could start their playoff series on the road and, of course, getting ready for the summer signings with the Tarasenko deal looming over our heads. Do we fight to keep him? Or will he come with too high a price tag for the team that has grown him to retain him?
At Bleedin’ Blue we’ve been looking at what the Blues could do, from improving the defense to the offense to everything in between, but what’s clear from the Blues’ 2nd place in the Western Conference is that they’re going to have to fight to maintain that place.
We need to examine what, or who, the Blues have to give up.
According to Spotrac.com they currently sit at $66.3 million this year, right up against that cap ceiling with only a million and change to spare for playoffs rentals. It’s never easy to make roster moves, but it’s far more difficult when you have to balance the books and you need a player who might cost more than you have to give.
Patrik Berglund and T.J. Oshie
These two names have popped up on trade speculation lists all year. The theory behind it was they’re both middle-of-the-road players, with relatively large cap hits.
According to Spotrac.com, Berglund takes $3.7 million up per year (with a 3-year contract for a total of $11 million) and has a total of 17 points to his name on the third line. He’s not the worst player on the Blues, but looking at his numbers, he’s a solid third-liner. The third line can be the place to train rookies to the NHL way, as we saw with Rattie’s time in St. Louis. While it’s necessary to have that center who can train and help make up for any gaffes, it’s a points gamble, and Berglund hasn’t shown us that his value lies in centering or training rookies. When we look at him on a line with veterans, though, he’s not necessarily much better, production-wise. What Berglund is good at is defensive play, as a quick glance at his stats will show you.
Graph and data taken from ownthepuck.blogspot.ca
As you can see above, Berglund has an abnormally high UA Corsi Against / 60, which tells us he’s incredibly effective at shutting down offensive plays from the opposing team. With Blues defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk out and the Blues’ defense a little shaky, Berglund’s defensive mindset is more than useful in that sense.
However his price tag is still unmanageable.
It’s hard to look at Berglund’s offensive output and say he deserves more than 2 million a season.
And sure, trading Berglund means that the Blues go collectively down a point in terms of Team Handsomeness, but how important is it to look like models when you’re failing out of the second round?
Oshie runs the Blues $4.175 million per year against the cap, with a total contract of more than $20 million over five years. He’s at 15 points and 22 assists, and is well on his way to hitting his highest season ever in points. His points production picked up in December, when his name began circulating on the trade block. Since then he has earned 24 of his 37 points, been named player of the game twice in the past month and in general has done a bang-up job adding pressure up front on the fantastically-named SOB line.
And let’s not forget, he can do this:
Of the two, the Blues will certainly get more in return for Oshie, but will get more bang for their buck if they retain him.
Steve Ott
Steve Ott is your quintessential enforcer that the Blues don’t really use as an enforcer. His contract isn’t the biggest, at $5.2 million over two years, but would buy the Blues some breathing room when it comes to the playoffs. And it’s possible the Sabres would want him back, what with fans having spent all that money on his jersey.
Feb 6, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; The puck squirts free as St Louis Blues center Steve Ott (9) checks Columbus Blue Jackets left wing Matt Calvert (11) during the first period at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Russell LaBounty-USA TODAY Sports
If Hitchcock and Armstrong are looking to get physicality over skill, however, Ott is one of the best to hang on to. His contract isn’t breaking the bank and he’s a good player to send out with one of your top lines when you need to add a reliable checker. He won’t put five goals in unless they’re empty-netters, but he certainly can give your skill players the breathing room to do so.
AHL Assets
Ty Rattie immediately springs to mind. Rattie spent five games with St. Louis when Lehtera was on IR before being sent back down to the AHL to continue developing. He’s a sniper, who is one of the highest goal-scorers on the Chicago Wolves, but struggled to find that shot on a defensive line like Berglund’s.
Next: When Will Rattie Score For The Blues?
Jake Chelios is another name that bears some scrutiny. Chelios might be a good supplemental defender for the Blues; he leans more on the offensive side of defenders and while he has put up a great number of assists over the year, has a -8 plus/minus. Maybe we don’t need another defenseman hanging around, disrupting the balance, but while Shattenkirk is out it seems like a good idea to bring someone up from the Wolves who might be able to contribute some firepower.
Other Options
Of the rest of the Blues, the majority of the money is tied up in five players: Backes, Pietrangelo, Gunnarsson, Stastny and Bouwmeester. None of them are what you would call high-production offensive players, and that seems to be the core that Hitchcock and Armstrong have hitched their wagons to (pun intended). They created a strongly physical, defensive core and are paying skill players to surround them for a couple of years, hoping they have the money to re-sign Tarasenko when his contract expires this summer. Any other players you might make a case to sell off and get some good cash for such as Schwartz, Lehtera, Jaskin are all making far less than their stats tell us they are worth, and as such it would be shocking to see them let go. The players would make out well on a team that is struggling and looking for a rebound such as Buffalo, Edmonton or Arizona, selling off one or two wouldn’t bring the Blues enough financial breathing room that they could afford a high-level player in return.
The easiest option right now may simply be to call up some Wolves players who can assist in the weeks before the playoffs begin to give the core a chance to rest before they are really needed. But while it’s the easiest, it may not be the best fiscally.
Whether the Blues front office likes it or not, in order to keep Tarasenko and a number of other players they will have to free up some cap space over the summer. And that may mean using one of their two remaining compliance buyouts.