St. Louis Blues: Could They Even Afford Artemi Panarin?

The St. Louis Blues have missed out on some good players over their recent history. Rarely do you get another chance to nab those players, but the Blues have to question whether they can really pull it off.

It’s always a past time of sports fans to project things out into the future. St. Louis Blues fans are no different.

We are never satisfied and rarely think the status quo is enough. Even championship teams are always in flux and looking for the next guy to come along.

With that in mind, the Blues and their fans are looking ahead to 2019 and the pending free agency of Artemi Panarin, affectionately known as the Bread Man. Other teams, like Dallas, are looking too.  The Blues had their chance to get him, twice in fact.

The Blues missed out on a chance to draft him in 2010. What a draft that would have been if you got Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko and Panarin all in the same draft. However, the Blues were not alone since all 30 teams passed on him that season and he played in the KHL.

Tarasenko is reported to have begged the Blues to pick Panarin up, but again they passed. Panarin proceeded to sign with Chicago, score 151 points in two years with the Blackhawks and then set a career high of 82 points in his third overall season with Columbus.

Needless to say, the Blues could have used that. Their offense has not been anemic the last three years, but it would be nice to have two or more 30-goal scorers and 70-plus point scorers.

Will the third time be the charm, should Panarin hit the market? Chances are low, mostly due to the reports that he only wants to play in a big market.

So, if that is his opinion, it would likely cost more money to lure him than other teams might have to pay. Or, you can look at a trade and hope the city rubs off on him and he stays. Neither will be cheap, but what would the cost truly be?

Free Agency

If the Blues wait until next summer, then all you have to pay is money. However, as we learned from John Tavares, getting a chance to even discuss a contract with a player is not always easy.

Panarin, with no other considerations, is likely to be around an $8 million a year player. In theory, he could demand even more if he felt there was enough interest.

Compare him with other $7 million-plus players. Ryan O’Reilly and Tarasenko are both making $7.5, with Tarasenko basically giving the Blues a discount on what he’s worth. O’Reilly has never scored 70 points and Tarasenko has done it three times out of six seasons (five complete seasons). Panarin, though his career has only been three years, has never not scored 70-plus points.

Evander Kane just got paid $7 million. His career high is 57 points. There is no reason to think Panarin will look for anything under $8 million, unless it is to join a specific situation.

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$9 million might be pushing it since Steven Stamkos lowered the bar a tiny bit with his hometown discount in Tampa. Panarin doesn’t have the positional value or the years behind him that Stamkos has or Tavares has, so he’s not going to approach those numbers unless a major market team is desperate, which can and does happen.

Joel Edmundson is likely to eat up all the Blues remaining cap space for 2018-19, so let us assume all deals stay as they are going into the year after.

The Blues will gain around $9.45 million in space with three defensive contracts potentially coming off the books. However, if you take up 90% of that with a forward, you’re hard pressed to fill those three defender slots even with cheap prospect contracts. In other words, it is doable, but you’d be squeezing pennies lower in your roster and defense still wins championships.

You also have to consider whether the Blues want to extend Pat Maroon, who is definitely not going to be paid $1.75 next year. Robby Fabbri will also need a new contract, if he is healthy and productive.

So, even if the Blues find a way to maneuver money for 2018-19, they would still have to trade away a Steen-like contract just to make the money work next year.

Trade

This is the more intriguing route, but also the more dangerous one. You have to send quality pieces to Columbus for a player that has stated will give no assurances to any team. Timing would be everything.

The Blues best bet, if they were honestly contemplating a trade for Panarin, would be to wait until after the holiday season but a few weeks before the trade deadline. That is ample time to sell Panarin on St. Louis, while also driving up Columbus’ anxiety over not getting anything in return for a likely departing player.

If you try a trade now, you have to move money plus prospects. You are almost certainly going to lose a player like Jordan Kyrou, plus Alexander Steen and maybe a pick.

If you can keenly play the waiting game, you drive Columbus to take much less, as the Blues did with Kevin Shattenkirk. Columbus might want a bit more, even at a late stage, but I’d be more than fine having a deal that would send Evan Fitzpatrick or Jordan Binnington, Steen and Sammy Blais or Dominik Bokk in return for Panarin.

Again, the problem with a trade is not knowing Panarin’s true intentions. We have rumors circulating that he only wants to be in big markets, which St. Louis is not.

Can you woo him by playing with his friend and a city that treats its players like gold (outside of social media)? If he’s only interested in big city lights, probably not. In that case, you better be one scorer away from winning a Cup in 2018-19 to give up three players and some picks for a few months.

If you think you could get him to stay, then a mid-to-late season trade is a fantastic idea. You’ve cleared the cap space with Steen gone and the defenders likely leaving and further solidified your top-six as potentially one of the more dangerous in the league.

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It could be worth the risk either way. Unfortunately, like with Tavares, we might never get to find out.