St. Louis Blues General Manager Doug Armstrong went before the media Tuesday, saying that re-signing Vladimir Tarasenko was top priority for the club that badly needs to retain its star player, who was among the top goal- and points-scorers in the league during the regular season.
“The St. Louis Blues will not be in the spot on July 5, if he’s not signed, not to be able to match any offer sheet that’s out there,” Armstrong said. “If it means allowing players to go to free agency, or if it means making players sweat it out on what their deal’s going to be, he’s the priority for us.”
Vladimir Tarasenko is not only a phenomenal points-scorer, but according to war-on-ice he is in the top 40 of all NHL players in Corsi-For among those who have played 50 or more games, coming in at a positive possession percentage at 54.97% He averages 1.39 goals per 60 minutes played, which lands him in the top five players in the NHL and averages exactly the same number of assists per 60, demonstrating his versatility as a forward.
While Tarasenko’s cap hit comes in at $1.75 million, according to NHL Numbers he only earned $900,000 over the 2014-2015 season, meaning that he must be offered at least 105% of last year’s money in his new contract.
Tarasenko is worth far more than that.
Apr 11, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) in action during the first period against the Minnesota Wild at Scottrade Center. The Blues won the game 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports
Bleacher Report has estimated that Tarsenko will go for between $6- and $8 million a year, but others, including our own A.P. Andes, have insisted that Tarsenko will fetch around $10 million a year if we’re looking at a contract that spans four or more years.
While it would be smart of a cap team like the Blues to lock Tarsenko up in a bridge contract while they get their finances in order and/or wait for the salary cap to rise, Tarasenko will almost certainly receive offer sheets that could offer him significantly more than the Blues’ first offer.
Once Tarasenko receives an offer sheet, he must sign it and present it to his club if he is interested in the terms of said contract.
Since Tarasenko played for the Blues last year, the St. Louis club has the right of First Refusal, or can take one week (seven days) to match the deal, dollar-for-dollar.
Any number of clubs will be interested in garnering a talent like Tarasenko for themselves. Read on to find out some of the likeliest contenders.
Next: First
Apr 9, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Members of the Colorado Avalanche celebrate with Colorado Avalanche goalie Reto Berra (20) after the game against the Winnipeg Jets at Pepsi Center. Colorado Avalanche won 1-0 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
The Colorado Avalanche
The Avs, who missed the playoffs by a wider margin then their management probably cares to admit, winning just 39 of 82 games in regulation, would almost certainly be among the first to take a good, hard look at their finances to see if they can afford to take on Tarasenko’s salary.
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They would absolutely benefit from Tarasenko’s 50 points (25 goals and 25 assists, not too shabby) and top-five goals-for percentage. The Avalanche’s best player in the goals/60 category is Jarome Iginla at an average of 1.02 goals scored per game and 1.13 assists per game. He sits at 34th in the league and is 37. His age makes Iginla’s accomplishments all that more impressive, but he’s on the downward slope of his career, racking up almost 50 points fewer per-season than he was at his peak (which, in accordance with independent studies on peak performance, was at approximately 28 years of age for the forward).
The Avs have another couple in the top 100 in goals/60 (Tanguay and Duchene), but the most successful teams in the league have far more; the Blues themselves have six while division rivals (and second-round team) Chicago Blackhawks have five.
According to WAR on ice, Colorado had the second-worst Corsi-For % in the league this season at 43.2%, indicating that the Avalanche only had control of the puck 43% of the time they were on the ice. While Tarasenko wasn’t the highest-ranked forward in Corsi-For, but as we already mentioned, he’s no slouch. His 54.97% average would be a boon to a team with an aging superstar like Iginla and whose highest Corsi-For% on the team belongs to Nathan McKinnon at a sub-par 48.6%.
That, for a player like McKinnon, is ridiculous and speaks to the problems the Avalanche had on depth and puck possession. While Colorado’s needs extend beyond simply one superstar forward, a piece like Vladimir Tarasenko would be hard to pass up if the money is available.
Their interest would certainly spark some fierce competition from the Blues, considering the fact that Colorado and St. Louis are division rivals.
Next: Second
Apr 23, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Fans celebrate after a hat trick by Nashville Predators center Filip Forsberg (9) during the third period against the Chicago Blackhawks in game five of the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Bridgestone Arena. The Predators won 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
The Nashville Predators
If you think the Nashville Predators are strong on defense, imagine what Shea Weber and Roman Josi would look like with Vladimir Tarasenko in front of them.
Go ahead, take a second. It turns a good team into a juggernaut, and practically guarantees a solid cup run next season, provided that Tarasenko is affordable enough for the Preds. Nashville sat at approximately $10 million under the cap this year with wounded captain and defenseman Shea Weber taking up the largest chunk of change and middling-to-good goalie Pekka Rinne sitting right behind him.
Nashville has five players currently with them who will enter restricted free agency this summer and five who will become unrestricted free agents. Not all of them will be re-signed, and some of them, like deadline acquisitions Franson and Santorelli, were brought on for a promise they couldn’t quite keep this season, which, if the Predators decide to keep either of them on, could certainly lead to a cheaper get for the club. The Preds will have the money available; the question is: are they willing to spend it?
[Forsberg] seemed to feel quite comfortable even in high-pressure situations, handling the puck with grace and ease. There were some moves that fell flat against a tough Chicago defense, but Forsberg looked quite confident out on the ice.
The best part of this pairing would be that Forsberg still has another year left on his contract at a cap hit of less than $1.5 million before he becomes an RFA and the Preds need to sit down and deal. Tarasenko could be the top-six boost to the offense that the defensively-rich club in Nashville needs.
Next: Third
Apr 11, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; The Toronto Maple Leafs logo on the offices of the Air Canada Centre before the final game of the season against the Montreal Canadiens at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
The Toronto Maple Leafs
The reasoning behind this move practically explains itself. The Leafs are in the East, and thus a completely separate division. Ergo the Blues would be significantly likelier to grit their teeth and let Tarasenko go in the event of a deal they simply couldn’t match financially.
Thanks to some brilliant trading by former Leafs GM Dave Nonis and switching Horton out for Clarkson just days before deadline, the Leafs have a large amount of capital on hand as Horton is on LTIR and may actually remain so for the rest of his NHL career.
The sky may be the limit for a team that is intent on a rebuild and a superstar who won’t fade in and out as Phil Kessel is accused of doing. Tarasenko would be an excellent player to snag for a rebuild, especially for a hockey city like Toronto. If he continues on the upward trend he’s begun this season (and I have every confidence he will), Tank will be a top-ten player in the NHL for years to come.
The only limitation on this trade may actually be Kessel. He and Tarasenko are both right wings, and as many fans may be aware, there’s only one spot on the first line for a right winger. I don’t see the Leafs bumping Kessel down to the second line, but Tarasenko deserves to be on the first line next season wherever he is.
Own The Puck’s Horizontal Evaluative Rankings Optic charts do an excellent job of laying it out on the line for visual learners like me: in everything but time on ice, Tarasenko is a first-line player. He has steadily improved over his first two seasons, but Kessel is still better, netting the same number of goals but 36 assists to Tarasenko’s 25. (Though looking at Kessel’s HERO chart, he is akin to a fourth-liner in shot suppression and blocking shots.)
Whether to start Kessel or Tarasenko on the first line is, of course, is a dilemma that the future GM and coach of a Leafs franchise would love to have.
Next: Fourth
Apr 8, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Boston Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask (40) makes a save on Washington Capitals right wing Troy Brouwer (20) as Bruins defenseman Zdeno Chara (33) defends in the third period at Verizon Center. The Capitals won 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
The Boston Bruins
Snagging Tarsenko could be the best way to make up for ditching Tyler Seguin because a) the Bruins were unprepared to deal with his youth and b) he wasn’t the wing they wanted, but instead a more natural center.
Tarasenko is exactly the winger the Boston Bruins tried to make Tyler Seguin into, a good reader of plays and a consistent scorer throughout the regular season and the post. To top it off, Tarasenko is only on his third year in the NHL. He’s still growing, but his emergence as a points-hungry dynamo is something that would be hard for a team that’s hurting as badly as the Bruins are to pass up.
The Bruins are entering into a period of uncertainty over the next couple of months as they find a new GM and possibly a new coach, considering how set that GM is on bringing his or her own people to the team. Regardless of who comes on Boston will make big changes to the team’s roster over the summer and adding some forward momentum for a team that came in 20th in the league in goals scored this season (as opposed to the 2013-2014 season when they took third in the league in the same category) can only be a positive.
On a line with likely-to-be-signed Ryan Spooner, Tarasenko would have a speedy centerman with playmaking abilities that rival his own. Tarasenko has oftentimes been the driving force of the STL line, as Stastny’s speed isn’t the highest on the ice and Lehtera is content to follow the play and provide support more often than not. Tarasenko isn’t the fastest player out there, either, but once he gets going, he’s hard to stop. His nickname isn’t “Tank” for nothing.
But as interesting as that combination could be, a spot on a line with Bergeron and Marchand could prove deadly for Bruins opponents. This article from the Boston Globe waxes rhapsodic about the pairing of Bergeron and Marchand, but add Tarasenko’s evenly split 50 points into the mix and you’ve got a first line that opposing teams would hate.
