Ken Hitchcock: Is His Job In Danger?

According to this Bleacher Report article published earlier in the week, Ken Hitchcock is one of the seven coaches in the NHL most in danger of losing his job.

It’s not a crazy assumption. Hitchcock was brought on to win Cups for a team that, despite missing the playoffs only three times in its nearly five decade-long incarnation, has never won a Cup. Every season where St. Louis doesn’t make the Finals is a disappointment to the team, to the fans, and to the front office. And while the players are held responsible, no one bears quite as much scrutiny come crunch time as the head coach.

Jonathan Willis writes,

"If the Blues fall in the first round for the third consecutive campaign, Hitchcock’s future with the team will come into question. The Blues on paper should be able to compete with Los Angeles and Chicago but have gone just 4-12 in their last three series against the best teams in the West, resulting in early playoff exits every time."

But while it’s not a completely frivolous idea, and Willis’ reasoning is sound, the article doesn’t take a number of other factors into account. Namely, the players Hitchcock was working with.

It’s true; the Blues haven’t seen a second-round playoff series in the last two years under Hitchcock. But I would argue that the Blues had small chance of seeing those second-rounders, that for them to turn their series’ against the Blackhawks and the Kings into such serious fights was a testament to Hitchcock’s defensive-oriented coaching. Because despite their excellent regular-season records, the past three years for the Blues have been building years.

St. Louis has been waiting for a sniper like Tarasenko to break through.

The 2013-2014 Blues had Alexander Steen and T.J. Oshie as their top points-scorers, and Steen and Backes as the top goal-scorers. While all three are talented players none of them are standout goal-scorers. That season was the best season either Oshie or Steen have had for points, and neither are on pace to match their goals total of the previous season, though Steen may come close in points, thanks to his assists this season.

Next: A.P. Andes Explores Steen's Points And Contract History

It’s clear in examining the evidence of the current and previous seasons that this year’s Blues have cultivated a group of high-scoring forwards in Tarasenko, Steen, Schwartz and Backes. All have crossed 45 points and are the top four goal scorers for St. Louis.

Looking at the previous stats of the three previous seasons show a very different team: one that prized defensive offense (much as they still do) but who didn’t have a dedicated player or two whose strength and main focus was lighting the lamp.

All stats taken from NHL.com

As we can see, the average point totals over the past three years (excluding the shortened 2012-2013 season) come out to approximately the same as Tarasenko and Steen, who currently have with more than a month left on the season.

Each of the players with the highest number of points per season was also the player who scored the most goals for said season.

Tarasenko will almost certainly outstrip Steen’s goal record of 33, the highest of all goal-scorers for the past seven years. It isn’t until we go back to the 2008-09 season that anyone even matched Steen’s goals (Brad Boyes: 33 goals, 39 assists, 72 points) and no one has scored more than 33 goals in a season since Boyes’ 42-goal season of 2007-08.

In comparison, we can look at Chicago and Los Angeles, the teams St. Louis matched up against over the past three seasons in the postseason that they have not been able to move past thus far.

All statistics taken from NHL.com

Each team has at least two high-producing goal scorers that can step up when the other his having an off game or year. In fact, in general the two scorers alternated years at the top of the points race. The only exception involved Marian Hossa and an insane number of assists.

Compared to St. Louis’ above listed top goal scorers, it’s clear that Chicago and L.A. had the upper hand in the past. But with Steen and Tarasenko maturing as players and shooters, this year may well end differently for the St. Louis Blues and Hitchcock.

Next: Blues Cup Run Threatened By Odd-Man Rushes

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