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St. Louis Blues: Five Reasons the Blues Will Beat the Dallas Stars

By Todd Panula |
Mar 12, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; St. Louis Blues defenseman Jay Bouwmeester (19) checks Dallas Stars right wing Patrick Eaves (18) during the third period at the American Airlines Center. The Blues defeated at the Stars 5-4 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 12, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; St. Louis Blues defenseman Jay Bouwmeester (19) checks Dallas Stars right wing Patrick Eaves (18) during the third period at the American Airlines Center. The Blues defeated at the Stars 5-4 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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With a few days between games, there’s always a lot of discussion about who can win a series and why. There are lots of reasons any team could win a series, but here we’re going to list the top five reasons the St. Louis Blue WILL beat the Dallas Stars.

The St. Louis Blues got a big monkey off their back when they defeated the Chicago Blackhawks. Not only did they exit the first round for the first time in four years, but they defeated their perennial nemesis and a team that knocked them out after being up 2-0 in the series two years prior.

Vladimir Tarasenko can say there was no monkey, but we know differently. Players can say it’s no big deal, just one step in a marathon and other such things but the fact is it is a big deal.

These players, the core group anyway, were in danger of being blown up a season ago after faltering against the Minnesota Wild. Instead, a few key moves and essentially telling this group that it’s now or never worked out and they came through.

The one cliche that is true though was it is only that first step. Technically four steps out of 16 needed to reach the ultimate goal. Now, the Dallas Stars stand in the Blues way of ending decades of heart break.

The Stars got in the way several times before, most notably in 1991. The Blues had a stacked team, but like the Blues did to Chicago in 1993, the then Minnesota North Stars took out the Blues en route to the Cup finals.

This season will be different. Not only are the Stars in a different city but some of the current Blues were not even born when that happened. The St. Louis Blues got over the mountain in the first round, but they have more than a mole hill to climb in the second.

Here are the five reasons they will.

Next: Big D Has No D

Feb 16, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; Dallas Stars center Cody Eakin (20) blocks a pass from St. Louis Blues center Paul Stastny (26) during the third period at the Scottrade Center. The Blues defeated the Stars 2-1 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 16, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; Dallas Stars center Cody Eakin (20) blocks a pass from St. Louis Blues center Paul Stastny (26) during the third period at the Scottrade Center. The Blues defeated the Stars 2-1 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /

Dallas Has The Worst Defense In The Playoffs

Technically the headline is a little bit wrong. They had the worst defense going into the playoffs.

Dallas scored the most goals of any team in the regular season. Not the Central Division, not the Western Conference but the entire league. They also scored the most goals in the first round with 21.

However, they couldn’t keep them out.

They allowed 230 goals in the regular season as well. That’s the most of any team that made the playoffs. The only team that came close was the Detroit Red Wings with 224 and they got bumped with ease by the Tampa Bay Lightning in round one.

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While the Stars made key roster moves to shore up the backline, picking up Johnny Oduya and Kris Russell, it hasn’t had the end result they were looking for yet. They allowed 16 goals to an offensively challenged Minnesota team in the first round who were also missing Zach Parise.

The Blues also fared pretty well against the Dallas defense. While the Blues had to go to overtime and/or a shootout to win three of the four games they won against Dallas, the Blues still scored 12 goals in those four wins.

Their defense cost them a chance at the playoffs last season as well. Dallas scored only six fewer goals last season than this, but allowed 30 more so clearly the blueline let them down last season and while improved wasn’t a huge difference maker this year.

The Blues scored 19 goals against a stout defensive team in the Blackhawks, so if they can keep up the tempo and possess the puck as much as they need to, then Dallas’ defensive faults will lead to a Blues win.

Next: The Grinders

Mar 14, 2016; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; St. Louis Blues right wing Scottie Upshall (10) celebrates his goal with teammates against the Calgary Flames during the first period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 14, 2016; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; St. Louis Blues right wing Scottie Upshall (10) celebrates his goal with teammates against the Calgary Flames during the first period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports /

The Fourth Liners

Call them what you will – Fourth line players, journeymen, grinders, role players or whatever else. The Blues have the advantage in this area.

Dallas has a heck of a scoring punch. They’ve built one of the toughest teams to defend in the league. However, after the top two lines, things aren’t quite as sparkling.

Don’t get me wrong, Jason Spezza is a great player and would be playing higher than the third line on most teams. Mattias Janmark and Patrick Eaves are decent as well but Eaves only had 17 regular season points and Janmark only has three assists in the playoffs.

That’s pretty much washed out by a Blues third line that will likely be comprised by David Backes, Patrik Berglund and Alexander Steen.

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Then comes the fourth line. Colton Sceviour, Vernon Fiddler and Travis Moen don’t necessarily strike fear into the hearts of opponents.

Now, to be fair, Steve Ott (or Ryan Reaves), Scottie Upshall and Kyle Brodziak aren’t household names either but we’ve seen what they can do. Until the big boys took hold, game 7 against the Blackhawks belonged to the Blues fourth line.

Upshall played so well that he got a social media movement started behind him. #ReUpshall. He was banging bodies, keeping the ‘Hawks in check and, if not for an inappropriately placed post, he could have scored.

Brodziak has yet to gain a point in the postseason and his regular season numbers aren’t great at first glance, but he came alive at the end of the year. Once his newborn son arrived, Brodziak was scoring goals left and right.

Ott and Reaves, regardless of who plays, need no introduction. They’re similar players. They like to scrap, they like to get under opponents skin and they like to hit. They’re not likely to score, but neither are the guys who play against them.

Beyond just the style are the intangibles. Reaves is itching to get into a game. He’s going to be a beast unleashed if Ken Hitchcock puts him out there. It would be unlike anything Dallas saw against Minnesota.

Ott has more than proven his worth to this team.

He’s proven he can lead without a C on his chest and he can show others how to give more than they thought they had.

Another factor is the punishment.  The Blues as a whole, but the fourth line in particular, like to forecheck.  If they don’t come away with the puck, they’ll put a body on someone.  The Dallas defense is almost all under 200 lbs.  That kind of punishment will wear them down, which in turn will create space later on for the skill guys.

Dallas has some great players. Players capable of winning a series on their own offensively. The Blues fourth line players have shown they can help the team win by example. Nobody would have thought it before, but they might be the missing pieces to the puzzle.

Next: The Moose

Apr 25, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues goalie Brian Elliott (1) blocks a shot against the Chicago Blackhawks during the first period in game seven of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 25, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues goalie Brian Elliott (1) blocks a shot against the Chicago Blackhawks during the first period in game seven of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /

Brian Elliott

We could extend this out to the goaltender position as a whole if we want. However, Brian Elliott was enough of a reason the Blues beat the Blackhawks that he gets the main focus.

Now Stars fans will likely take issue with this. Anti Niemi has won a Stanley Cup and Kari Lehtonen is also a fine goaltender who has won plenty of games over his career.

They are not Elliott or Jake Allen though. Not right now anyway.

Elliott led the regular season in save percentage at .930 and Jake Allen was just behind with .920.  Elliott finished the regular season tied for second in goals against at 2.07 and Allen finished with a not too shabby 2.35.

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Allen finished tied for second with six shutouts and Elliott was tied for fourth with four.

Lehtonen and Niemi were at .905 and .904 respectively and 2.76 and 2.67 for goals against.

Lehtonen does have a better goals against average for the playoffs than Elliott with the comparison being 2.27 to 2.40 but Elliott has a better save percentage due to being shelled by the Blackhawks.

The bottom line might be the hot test.  Neither Lehtonen nor Niemi looked fantastic against the Wild, but they got the job done.  Brian Elliott had a shaky moment here or there, but has been outstanding.

If Elliott falters, the Blues have Allen to fall back on.  While Allen has not received national recognition, baring any setbacks, he has the skills to be one of the best goaltenders in the league in the years to come.

Most fans would take that combination over a couple steady 32 year olds.  Yes, Niemi has a Cup, but as good as the Stars are, they aren’t the 2010 Blackhawks.

Advantage Blues in this category.

Next: A Russian Tank

Apr 17, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) and Chicago Blackhawks right wing Marian Hossa (81) fight for the puck during the first period in game three of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 17, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) and Chicago Blackhawks right wing Marian Hossa (81) fight for the puck during the first period in game three of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports /

Vladimir Tarasenko

It’s honestly hard to argue that the Stars don’t have the advantage in scoring, because they do. Just in terms of playoff scoring, they have to players in the top ten in goals, assists and points (Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza).  Dallas will be without one of their leading scorers in Tyler Seguin for at least two games, which will be one less person to outscore though.

Regardless of opposition, Vladimir Tarasenko has proven to be a playoff beast in a relatively short span. In only 20 career playoff games, Tarasenko has 14 goals and 17 points and doesn’t look like he’s slowing down any time soon.

Eight of his career goals have come against the tight checking Chicago Blackhawks, so he doesn’t always need a ton of space to create. If the previous point about the defense holds true, Tarasenko will have more room to operate against Dallas.

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Tarasenko will need to turn it up a bit against the Stars. In the regular season, he only had four points – split evenly with two goals and two assists – against Dallas.

The man some call Tank, will be a big key in this series. St. Louis rolls out four lines, so keying on Tarasenko alone will not work.

Still, while he is not quite in the vein of Alex Ovechkin, he’s close. He will need to score for the Blues to win this series and he likely will.

He’s proven he can in the playoffs already and he’s proven he can step up in big moments. Though the team gave up his hard earned lead, he scored two big goals and assisted on another in a 4-3 win over the Chicago Blackhawks.

He’s humble and doesn’t care about such things, but continuing to score and help his team win will only further his star status too.

Next: All You Have to Do is Believe

Apr 25, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues teammates celebrate after defeating the Chicago Blackhawks 3-2 in game seven of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 25, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues teammates celebrate after defeating the Chicago Blackhawks 3-2 in game seven of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /

The Blues believe now

This isn’t something you can see or touch or smell or even quantify. You can’t measure it either, but it’s something that can make huge amounts of difference.

This isn’t to say that Dallas doesn’t believe they can win. I’m sure they do. They have former Cup winners with Oduya, Sharp and Niemi. As a team though, they haven’t had to endure what the Blues have.

There are a lot of fresh faces in the Blues’ camp now, but the core group has been through a lot. Players like Backes, Berglund and Steen have seen all the playoff heartbreak from the 2007-08 sweep to the Canucks.

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Key guys like Schwartz, Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk and Tarasenko have been there for all the disappointing first round exits and failures to the Kings and Blackhawks.

Now they’ve all gotten a huge weight off their shoulder. This squad had a first round win over San Jose in 2012, but it wasn’t the same.

They didn’t have the history and disappointment to overcome that year. It was almost a fresh beginning back then.

Now they have overcome a huge hurdle. Getting out of the first round is no great achievement in the grand scheme of things, but for this team it’s a giant first step. Beating a team that has plagued them in the past was the cherry on top of a much needed sundae.

The Blues now know they’re capable of beating the best in the league, not only in the regular season but the playoffs. The Dallas Stars are on the level, skill wise, of the ‘Hawks but St. Louis now knows that their own game is capable of taking down anyone.

Next: Don't Overlook the Stars

The Blues have a seemingly perfect mix of players as well. They have the role players that have been there before with Brouwer, Ott, Upshall and Brodziak. They have their own group of players that have finally gotten over some hurdles and they have the young players like Fabbri and Parayko.

For those guys, this is the new normal. This is how things are supposed to be. They don’t know any better.

That kind of mix, combined with the belief that you not only should but can win is just the recipe for success.

That’s just what the St. Louis Blues plan to have and will have because of these five reasons.

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