St. Louis Blues: Five Potential Vegas Victims Through Expansion Draft
Nearly a week since the 2016-17 NHL season ended, the St. Louis Blues have already made some significant rosters decisions in preparation for next year.
Along with the league’s other 29 teams, the Blues submitted their list of protected players for the upcoming expansion draft on Saturday. The team’s list of protected players could be made public later on Sunday.
According to a report last month from Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Blues have decided to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie. Players with no more than two years of experience, most notably Robby Fabbri and Colton Parayko for St. Louis, are exempt from being selected in the expansion draft.
Expansion draft rules require the Vegas Golden Knights to select one unprotected player from each team, meaning they will take on the contract responsibilities of at least one player who skated with the Blues last season.
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The league’s first expansion draft since 2000 has a reason to bring anticipation and concern. Based on who the Golden Knights select, the Blues could promote some farm system talent to fill the gap. Yet, someone’s departure could leave the Blues scrambling toward free agency or trade talks to fulfill an urgent need previously exhibited by someone’s departure.
Vegas will have the opportunity to select 30 players in a combination with at least 14 forwards, nine defensemen and three goaltenders. Considering the stakes ahead for the Golden Knights and the Blues, there are five likely victims whose hockey careers may continue away from the Gateway City as soon as this week.
Among these five players are three forwards, one defenseman and one goalie who stand out, all holding different levels of experience in the NHL and with the St. Louis Blues.
Vegas Selection 1: Dmitrij Jaskin
Dmitrij Jaskin potted a crucial goal in the fifth game of the second round of playoffs. He has also chimed in five career game-winning goals. He made his contributions count in limited ice time, but a recent history of injuries and the Blues’ improving wing depth leave him on track for exposure.
Why Vegas may or may not select him.
Jaskin offers great physical attributes that make him a breakout candidate as a 6-foot-2 skater at 24 years old. He collected a career-high 13 goals in the 2014-15 campaign. He could thrive in an environment with more consistent playing time and line mates, already posting a career Corsi rating of 54.5.
On the contrary, Vegas may be looking for players that are a little more established in their NHL careers. Jaskin has fluctuated between different levels of gameplay switching between the Blues and former AHL affiliate Chicago Wolves in three of the past four seasons. The Golden Knights may be uncertain where he stacks compared to more-experienced players exposed from other teams.
How might this affect the Blues?
The loss would be more of an issue of depth rather than production. The Blues have players producing similar or better statlines in regards to Jaskin’s production outside of St. Louis. But if injuries pile up for the organization in the early going, missing someone who is at least familiar with the team’s structure might prove costly.
Likeliness of selection
If the Golden Knights choose Jaskin, a mid to late-round selection seems most realistic. He is also guaranteed only $1 million this year before he needs a new contract, offering low-risk, high-reward potential.
Vegas Selection 2: Jori Lehtera
In three seasons with the Blues, Jori Lehtera‘s point production has decreased each year. His face-off abilities and plus-minus ratings have also seen regression, making him a likely candidate to enter the expansion draft unprotected.
Why Vegas may or may not select him.
Perhaps a reason as simple as playing with a consistent Top 10 scorer consistently in Vladimir Tarasenko could influence Vegas to take a gamble. Knowing how to play with skaters of non-North American background, including his native town of Finland, could help the Golden Knights build chemistry and more publicity internationally.
Lehtera’s productivity remains a concern, plus younger options will be available in the draft as he turns 30 in December. His average ice time has decreased each year, and despite averaging two takeaways per giveaways, his defensive awareness is not enough to suffice for a declining offensive skill set.
How might this affect the Blues?
Even though Lehtera is an easy target to expose, the Blues may have to get more creative in finding replacements. Center is a position where the team still has questions about depth and Lehtera has been known for a strong off-ice rapport with several teammates.
Likeliness of selection
Unless the market for a center is very thin come draft day, it would be hard to envision Lehtera being the top choice to select from the Blues. But, reaching 25 assists in his first two seasons shows he could still be an asset for the Golden Knights.
Vegas Selection 3: David Perron
Reaching the 600 game plateau last year, David Perron noticed mixed results in his second go-around with the Blues. He had an eight-game point streak and followed with multiple three-game point streaks in the regular season, but being held goalless in the playoffs and standing with one year left on his contract does not necessarily make him a shoe-in for protection.
Why Vegas may or may not select him.
It seems that Perron has been on the brink of being unprotected in recent weeks, possibly to protect enforcer Ryan Reaves. If he is not, the numbers he put up in Pittsburgh and Anaheim, just a few years ago playing along top Sidney Crosby and Ryan Getzlaf, make him an intriguing Top 6 forward for the team with the right linemates. After all, he played admirably with Patrik Berglund last year.
Most concerning, Perron’s value decreased significantly more from the stretch between the end of the regular season and playoff elimination. With just one assist and eight penalty minutes in 11 playoff games, Perron’s on-ice discipline might not cut it for a Golden Knights team that could compete given the atrocity near the bottom of the Western Conference last year.
How might this affect the Blues?
Perron’s loss would be more of a short-term issue than long-term, as he only has one more year left on his existing contract. Finding a source of scoring with 20-goal, 20-assist potential may not be easy though, not to mention Perron was only one of three Blues to play every single game last year.
Likeliness of selection
This is truly a wild card because of the risk Perron presents if he does not contribute as expected. The 29 year-old’s best chance of getting selected would be if Vegas intends to pair him with a Top 6 center who could become available through the draft.
Vegas Selection 4: Carl Gunnarsson
The second-oldest defensemen on the Blues in terms of age, Carl Gunnarsson signed a three-year contract extension in March 2016. He has quietly found a niche as a third-line defender, but it may work against him in St. Louis’s decisions for protecting blue liners.
Why Vegas may or may not select him
Under the “defense wins championships” theory, some teams may really covet their blue liners and look to protect eight skaters and one goalie rather than the normal 7-3-1 format the Blues are using. Pure defensive abilities could come at a premium and Gunnarsson, at the very least, has offered a consistent backline defensive presence in his career with the Blues and Maple Leafs.
The main problem with Gunnarsson is he does not make too much of a difference on the ice aside from logging minutes when other bodies are fatigued. He has never scored more than 12 points in a season with the Blues and he averages less than half as many hits as he registered in his first four years with Toronto.
How might this affect the Blues?
The Blues have a very wide gap in defensive talent right now. Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko could both be Top 20 defenders, while Joel Edmundson‘s stock is rising after a strong playoffs performance. Unless the Blues look to promote from within with someone such as Jordan Schmaltz, they could miss how Gunnarsson bridges the extremes in blueliner abilities on the roster.
Likeliness of selection
Despite a strong chance of exposure, the most likely way Gunnarsson gets selected is if the other 29 teams protect their defensemen very heavily. He will make $5.8 million until his next contract expires in two years. Vegas’s tight budget already makes the investment only worthwhile if they can keep him longer than two years.
Vegas Selection 5: Carter Hutton
Leading the team in shutouts, Carter Hutton played a strong second half that often went overlooked with starter Jake Allen‘s turnaround. While Allen is the obvious choice to protect for goalie given his age and development, Hutton presents an interesting case for Vegas turning 32 years old in December.
Why Vegas may or may not select him.
There are very few teams that had a back-up goaltender as valuable as Hutton last year. He played a huge stopper role in January when the Blues had their toughest stretch that could have threatened their sixth straight playoff bid, and sometimes teams notice these intangibles when trying to construct their rosters.
However, goaltending could offer the most strength in the expansion draft since teams are only allowed to protect one goalie. The defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins have already hinted at exposing proven netminder Marc-Andre Fleury. Vegas could also wait to sign former Blues goalie Brian Elliott in free agency to occupy a role.
How might this affect the Blues?
Hutton’s potential absence may not affect the workload of Allen very much, but the Blues have benefited from strong goaltending depth behind their number one starters in recent years. If the Golden Knights were to select Hutton, there would be an urgency to find someone who could help St. Louis when Allen needs breaks in net.
Likeliness of selection
Selecting Hutton would likely come after two considerations. The first being that no forwards or defensemen especially fit the needs of the team Vegas is trying to develop. But more likely, the bargain value he could provide compared to other available goaltenders making $1.125 million in his contract year.
Next: St. Louis Blues: Protecting Ryan Reaves Makes Sense
The NHL expansion draft is set for Wednesday, June 21, the same night at the NHL Awards show. The 2017 NHL draft will follow on Friday, June 23.