St. Louis Blues: 3 Reasons To Fear The Dallas Stars And 2 Why Not To
The St. Louis Blues did not have to wait too long to figure out their second round opponent. They will face the Dallas Stars, which is about as unappetizing as their first round opponent.
Winning a Stanley Cup might be (likely is) the hardest thing to do in sports. The St. Louis Blues and their fans know this since it is shoved in our faces yearly that the team has not brought one home yet.
Unlike the NBA playoffs, or any sport really, almost anyone can win it in the NHL. That is especially true this season with the top seeds going out and traditional powers not around.
So, we all knew this was going to be difficult going into it. St. Louis had their back up against the wall facing the Winnipeg Jets.
Winnipeg had dominated the Blues the last few seasons and 2018-19 was no different. Their high-end talent was better than St. Louis’ and they were bigger. We know how that turned out.
Now, the Blues have to face the Dallas Stars. Some will wring their hands and some will shrug.
Dallas is a really good team, but so was Nashville. It was a pick your poison situation and Dallas is the pill the Blues now have to swallow and hope there are no side affects.
It is going to be a tough series. Anyone who thinks this one will end quickly, one way or the other, is mistaken.
With that, let’s look at the reasons the Blues should be worried about the Dallas Stars. There is also a reason or two they should be confident.
Jamie Benn
I try not to use the first person personal in my articles unless necessary. It’s just how I was taught.
That said, I have to here. I can’t stand Jamie Benn. He has honestly risen to the level that Jeremy Roenick and Ed Belfour used to hold back in the day.
For me, he has surpassed anyone that played on the Detroit Red Wings in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. I just can’t stand the way he plays or that smug smile.
I think he is a cheap shot artist and a diver. In that aspect, he is Sidney Crosby without as much whining.
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My opinion on the man has gotten me into hot water in the past. There is even a petition, started by Dallas fans, to have me removed as a writer at the website I used to work at because I called Benn out for overreacting to draw a penalty.
Anyway, the problem is not that he comes off as a jerk to opposing fans. The problem is he is a really good player. Even worse, he owns the Blues right now.
In four games against the Blues in 2018-19, he had five goals. Benn has 10 points against the Blues over the last two seasons alone. That total goes up to 10 goals and 21 points if you include the last four seasons.
The Blues just have not found a way to shut this guy down and he smiles through the entire thing. You just wish they would smack him in the face, but you know they cannot since that would be a penalty.
Additionally, the guy is a load. At 6’2 and 210, he’s not the biggest guy in the league, but he’s built solid. He can muscle up in front of the net but also has the speed and hands to get into all the danger areas.
The Blues are going to have to figure out a way to stop him in this series, or at least slow him down.
More Blues Killers
It is not just Benn that the Blues need to worry about. If that was the case, you could formulate a simple game plan of double-teams or man marking. Instead, there are several guys that usually do damage against the Blues.
One of the prime suspects there is John Klingberg. Klingberg is relatively new to the scene, just breaking into the NHL in 2014-15. Even so, he has managed to be a huge thorn in St. Louis’ side.
Klingberg had seven points in four games against the Blues in 2018-19. On top of that, he had two goals vs. St. Louis and both of them were game winning goals.
In 20 career games against the Blues, Klingberg has 16 points. He is an offensive defenseman, but that’s still too high a percentage against one team. The only teams Klingberg has performed better against was Winnipeg and Minnesota.
Joining him on the backside is former Blue, Ben Bishop. We all know former Blues tend to come back and haunt us like something from the film Poltergeist.
Bishop just manages to shut down the Blues regardless of any revenge factor. He is only .500 for his record, but he has a 2.12 goals against and .926 save percentage lifetime against the Note.
The Blues did get five past him in three games, but he still put up a 1.69 goals against and .941 save percentage. He was even better the prior year.
In two seasons with Dallas he has kept the Blues to 1.67 goals a game and had a .950 save percentage. He could be the missing piece that makes the difference from the Blues winning back in 2016 (both rosters are quite different, but still).
Tyler Seguin has 25 points in 29 career games against the Blues.
These are all just regular season numbers too. These guys step up in the playoffs.
Big D Dominance
Clearly this is a continuation of the last two categories. Player performance usually equals wins when your best players are playing at their best.
Still, perhaps the biggest reason Blues fans did not want to see Dallas is the fact of how the games went. St. Louis went 1-3 against Dallas this year, but that is only have the picture.
St. Louis was outscored 12-4 in the losses. The only thing that sort of evened out the goals per game between the two teams was the Blues winning 3-1 and having two goals in one of the losses.
On top of the scores, the style was not good to watch. The Blues were getting outmuscled, outhustled and outgunned.
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You could argue some of those games came early in the 2019 calendar, but the Blues were starting to turn things around in that period and still lost. A 4-1 loss in early March was particularly harmful to the Blues postseason hopes at that time.
Things were not quite as bad in 2017-18, but St. Louis still lost the season series 2-3. The Blues were the better team on their home ice, which maybe gives them a little hope, but got doubled up every time in Dallas.
As poorly as the Stars can play at times – they did miss the playoffs just like the Blues last season – they still seem to get in St. Louis’ head at times. Benn is a particular irritant in that aspect. The fact he scores too makes it worse.
The Blues are going to have to find a way over this mental hurdle that has been the Stars in 2018-19. Top to bottom, the Blues probably have the better team. We have seen that means very little in the playoffs. Just look at Tampa Bay.
Jordan Binnington
The Dallas Stars have been somewhat of a kryptonite shard against Jordan Binnington. He only had five losses in the regular season and two of them came against the Stars.
Binnington allowed eight goals in three games against Dallas. He owns a rather unimpressive .879 save percentage and 2.76 goals against when playing the Stars. It is a small sample size, but a little worrying.
That said, this is Binnington. He honestly seems to sweat no one and nothing.
Binnington proved he was a playoff goaltender in the Winnipeg series. Other people might disagree, but I do not feel he truly stole games, but he definitely was a huge reason the Blues won that series.
The Jets kept coming and coming, no matter the situation. Binnington kept his composure and made stop after stop. In the entire series, there was only one (maybe two if you are picky) goals that you could say he should have had. Most of the goals against Binnington were ones nobody was going to stop.
So, despite Dallas’ dominance against his team and putting up good numbers against him, he probably does not think about it. Binnington is going to do his homework and look for ways to improve, but I do not think he is in the film room, pouring over footage, trying to figure out why Dallas scored so many goals.
Binnington is going to go into this series like any other and that’s what has made him successful. He does not treat any game or any series like it has any more significance than the other.
We’ve Gone Down This Road Before
Dallas is a really good team. Nobody should be surprised if they manage to win this series.
That does not mean the Blues are outmatched, even if we sometimes fear they are. We were just down that road with the Jets and the Blues took care of their business.
Going into the opening round of the playoffs, everyone said the Jets were probably the worst matchup the Blues could have drawn. They were bigger, stronger, faster and just as talented, if not more.
It was not pretty and we had a lot of nervous nights, but the Blues won and deserved to do so. There is nothing to say the same will not happen against the Stars.
Yes, the Blues were dominated by Dallas throughout the regular season. St. Louis also had a 1-3 regular season record against the Jets.
The Blues were not sharp defensively against the Stars. The Blues got outscored 18-9 in their three regular season losses to the Jets.
That had little impact on the playoff series. The regular season should not impact the Stars series either.
By now, the Blues have proven they can beat anyone and everyone when they play their game. That is not to say the Stars can’t do the same, but if the Blues play their best I like their chances more than most.
Craig Berube proved he had the guts to make lineup changes when the series dictated it. That gives him even more options against the Stars, once the Blues figure out what is working and what might not.
On top of all that, the Blues have home ice. We have seen that home ice meant nothing in the Winnipeg series and across the NHL, really. Even so, you would rather have it than be forced to win so many games on the road.
The key, as with almost every series, will be to hold home ice advantage and steal at least one game in Dallas. Easier said than done, but not impossible by any means.
Like the Blues, Dallas has been playing playoff hockey for months just to get in. They are battle tested, but sometimes that momentum wears off. If it does, the Blues are primed to take advantage.
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Circling back, the Blues just need to worry about themselves. They clicked on enough things against Winnipeg to give them a lot of confidence. There are things they can improve on, but the coaching staff has shown they can and will make the adjustments to correct or cover those mistakes.
The Blues can win this series. I think they will. it is up to them.