3 Reasons St. Louis Blues Win First Game, 1 Reason They Don’t
The St. Louis Blues don’t have things easy with their first game of the 2021 season. There are always reasons why they will or won’t win though.
The St. Louis Blues have to hit the ground, or the ice as it were, running to open the 2021 season. The NHL was likely looking at television matchups more than anything when they paired the Blues with the Colorado Avalanche to start the season.
These are two of the likeliest teams to represent the traditional Western Conference in a Stanley Cup Final, though there technically is no Western Conference this season. Nevertheless, the Blues, Avs and Vegas Golden Knights are all championship contenders and all in one division.
So, opening up the season with a fast team, a team that could win the Stanley Cup and is your primary rival this season will be no easy task. However, the Blues are actually quite suited to get it done.
Beyond just being a talented team, St. Louis has specific reasons they can and maybe will beat the Avalanche in the first game of the season. However, there are almost always two sides to any coin.
So, with that in mind, we’ll also look at the main reason the Blues might lose their first game of the season.
Loss: High Altitude
As an outsider, who has only visited the Denver area a handful of times, it is hard to truly gauge the effects of high altitude. Most visits for myself were as a child or non-strenuous activity.
The one time I somewhat noticed it was when a friend and I went on a hike in the mountains. You could tell the air was a little thinner overall.
Yet, I’ve always brushed it off affecting players too much. They’re pro athletes, in great shape.
The thinking was also if Denver was such a hard pace to play, why is the place not a fortress, almost unwinnable? However, the truth is that high altitude does affect players.
It’s not as though it makes it an unwinnable scenario, since both sides can make mistakes that cost them the game regardless of altitude. Yet, hearing stories of ex-players like Jamie Rivers, it makes more sense.
It’s not so hard to breathe in and of itself, but there simply is not enough oxygen to fill your lungs with each breath. So, you’re constantly trying to recover, making it feel like you’ve just got done with a shift on the ice even if you skipped one.
To me, coming so early in the season, this is more the reason the Blues might not win their first game of the year as opposed to the Avalanche doing something in particular. That is not to take away from the Avs either.
They’re Cup contenders for a reason. They have two of the best scorers in the entire NHL, a good defense and solid goaltending. All of that would make it difficult for the Blues to win anyway.
But with so little preparation time for St. Louis, having to play at high altitude is more likely to affect them as opposed to if they were a week into the season. By then, the Blues would have their legs under them and be in better shape to overcome the high altitude.
Now, you’re going into a situation with no real preseason games and only 10 days of practice/scrimmage. These guys are in tip-top shape, but it’s still likely to be a factor that might sap them of energy earlier than normal. They cannot come out of the gate on fire only to be dead 10 minutes in.
Win: Jordan Binninton
The Blues have a heck of a defense, though it will be a different style of defense than we’ve seen in the past. The players are more dynamic and skate better, but also might get caught up ice more often.
With that in mind, the Blues need their goaltender to be on top of their game. Regardless of what happens the rest of the year, I believe Jordan Binnington will be at his absolute best in this game.
We can argue about his consistency, but he plays best with a chip on his shoulder. He’s had to sit for months with all the chatter of how he fell flat on his face in the 2020 playoffs.
You’re kidding yourself if you think he’s not somewhat aware of all that. That’s actually going to put him on top of his game right away, similar to how the insult of almost going to the ECHL in 2018 put a fire under him when he got his shot in 2019.
We saw glimpses of the 2018-19 Binnington in the team’s final scrimmage game. Though he did allow some goals that were not his fault, he also made some spectacular saves.
There was one towards the end of the contest that was reminiscent of the sprawling save he made in Game 7 against the Boston Bruins. It was not quite as athletic as that, but it showed that Binnington is ready to make those stops.
Binnington will get plenty of work having to go against Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and company. As long as he’s on, the Blues have every shot at winning.
Win: Power Play
One of the keys for the Blues this season will be their revamped power play. The Blues need to score more consistently for them to be a championship squad again.
Statistically, the Blues have had a good power play in recent years. The problem is they go games without a goal and then score a bunch strung together to put their percentage up higher.
I’d rather see them literally score once every third or fourth power play consistently as opposed to going 0-10 and then scoring on four straight power plays to get the same percentage. You have a much better chance to win each game if you’re scoring a power play goal almost every game.
With the firepower the team has spread across their two power play units, the Blues actually have every chance of doing just that if they get more comfortable shooting the puck. Even the announcers during the scrimmage brought up the fact the Blues passed up shots with the goalie pulled or on power plays.
There is no excuse now. You have one of the best pure shooters in Mike Hoffman. You have Ryan O’Reilly with laser precision vision and passing, Brayden Schenn as your workhorse and guys willing to shoot from the point in Torey Krug and David Perron.
The second unit is just as qualified. Robert Thomas can make the passes, Jaden Schwartz will work those corners and look for tips as will Tyler Bozak and then Vince Dunn and Colton Parayko will bomb from the blue line.
We need to see these power play units clicking. Even in the chance they do not score, they need to be moving the puck and making the Avalanche work.
If they can get a goal or two, that really helps things out.
Win: Depth
Arguing team depth against another team is always a dangerous thing. Just imagine any discussion you’ve had with friends about who is the best goalie of all time or best quarterback, but on a team scale.
So, saying the Blues have more depth than the Avalanche is mainly based on perception. However, even I acknowledge that because you see a team all the time, you are going to value their talents more than someone you only see a stat sheet on.
Still, I truly believe the Blues have one of the deepest teams in the NHL and that includes the Avs. Colorado surely has higher top-end talent.
As much as we love someone like O’Reilly or Schenn, they’re probably not quite as good as MacKinnon or Landeskog. They just bring a different style.
However, on the blue line, I’ll take the Blues squad any day. Colorado is no slouch defensively, but after Cale Makar, there’s a dip.
You have Devon Toews, Ian Cole, Conor Timmins, Keaton Middleton, Ryan Graves, Samuel Girard, Dennis Gilbert and Bowen Byram all listed as defenders on their roster.
There are talented players in there as this is not a bad defensive team. However, the Blues have three players that could stake a claim to be a top-pairing defenseman on many other teams.
The Blues roll out Krug, Parayko, Justin Faulk (say what you will, but he’s still a high end player overall), Marco Scandella, Dunn, Robert Bortuzzo and Carl Gunnarsson. They also have Niko Mikkola, who looks like he’ll be a solid defensive defenseman, waiting in the wings.
When Scandella and Bortuzzo are perceived as the weak links, you know you’re doing pretty well. Those two don’t have the game to fly up and down the ice, but they’re steady players who compliment the guys they’re paired with.
St. Louis likely cannot match Colorado in a scoring match, but they can compete with all four lines. Their fourth line players would be higher up the roster on many of the other teams across the league.
We’ve seen Oskar Sundqvist play at a level where he can be a legit second-line player. That’s not likely something sustainable over an entire season, but that shows the caliber of player you have on your final forward group.
St. Louis has enough depth to have a high-energy guy like Sammy Blais or a potential goal scorer like Jordan Kyrou sitting in the press box on any given night. There are actual hard decisions being made as to who plays and on which line.
There’s been plenty of years in the past where guys were playing up too high in the chart. Now, you feel like several are playing too low.
This gives the Blues an advantage that will definitely help them overcome the high altitude. Of course, this depends on them all coming out and playing well as a unit.
Next. Bouwmeester joins list of Blues forced to retire too early. dark
Nevertheless, rolling four lines that can score and three defensive pairs that can both defend and join the rush will counterbalance the skill the Avs have. It gives the Blues their best shot at winning the first game of the year and plenty beyond.