Vladimir Tarasenko: Brett Hull, Meet Pavel Datsyuk
This is the second installment of a three-part series on Vladimir Tarasenko, his prospects as the next NHL superstar and the challenges facing the Blues in signing him to a new contract in the off-season.
In the first piece we examined last year’s ascent and fall back to earth by season’s end of St. Louis Blues’ forward Alexander Steen. Like Tarasenko, Steen put up superstar numbers the first half of the year that faded and then plummeted after a concussion injury three days after he was signed by the Blues to a $17.4 million three-year contract.
Next: 1/3: Is Tarasenko The Next Steen Or Ovechkin?
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Not only is Vladimir Tarasenko the real deal, but in 1-2 years he could very well be the NHL’s most talented and feared offensive threat. Goaltending may still be an issue for many Blues fans going into the playoffs, but ultimately what has kept the Blues from moving on is the absence of a pure scorer, a sniper on the order of an Ovechkin or a Kane.
Those days are over. With this year’s Tarasenko, the Blues have someone who probably would have scored multiple times on the L.A. Kings’ Jonathan Quick back in the 2011-12 Stanley Cup playoffs—and hopefully on the goalie who stands between the Blues and the next round this year.
But will he?
Unless we’re talking Gretzky in 1981-82, the answer is probably that nothing is guaranteed. Any given Sunday and all that.
But Tarasenko gives the Blues an edge they haven’t had since Brett Hull. He has a big shot and his wrister is a laser with eyes for the five-hole or the corners, but his ability to accelerate through defenses, his soft hands, and his ease with deking defenders and goalies out of their uniforms with the puck is reminiscent of Datsyuk at his best. His sick forehand-to-backhand tuck goal against the Rangers (aka the “Forsberg Move”, gif courtesy of @myregularface) after splitting the defense is probably still the goal of the year, but there have been plenty of others. Like Steen, he plays with grit and pursuit, and is willing to go into the corners to take the body and get the puck.
Speaking of Dastyuk, Tarasenko is also a pretty solid two-way player, and that gives him additional value when he is on the ice and the play is going the other way. His speed and skills have improved hugely over last year. Unlike Steen, Tarasenko is only 23 and, like most 23-year-old NHL players, will likely improve his game every year over the next few years.
Tarasenko, on the other hand, is a 23-year-old juggernaut in his third year. The bigger question is: have we seen the top of his numbers potential, or is he just getting warmed up?
For any coach who has faced the Russian already, that has to be a terrifying prospect.
If there is a possible downside with Tarasenko, it might be his durability over time, especially given his style of play. Players and blueliners are getting bigger and taller, and Tarasenko is only 6’ and under 210 lbs., physical stats that do not lend themselves well to holding up under years of grueling play. Keith Tkachuk he isn’t.
Tarasenko also has had more than his share of injuries to start. His rookie season he suffered two concussions, one in the KHL while the NHL was still under lockout, and another one in late February, 2013 on a questionable hit the NHL deemed legal by the Colorado Avalanche’s Mark Olver. The latter caused him to miss 10 games. Then late last year he went out with a broken hand that kept him out the last month of the regular season. To his credit, however, he returned weeks earlier than originally projected, and performed brilliantly on his return.
As for his goal production, Blues fans might have had a cause for concern after the month of January, when Tarasenko scored only two goals in the entire month over a dozen games. At that point it would have been a reasonable question if Tarasenko was going to be a rewrite of the Steen story. After scoring 20 goals in his first 31 games, he has scored only 11 in the 29 games since.
And, although he is back up to seven goals in the month of February with two more games still to play, because of the sharp fall-off in January his numbers over the second half of the season don’t match his numbers over the first half. Is this something to worry about?
Probably not. Most of the league’s elite scorers have a slow period where, for whatever reason, their game just isn’t clicking. Alex Ovechkin, the league’s current leading scorer with 38 goals, went through an 11-game span from November 29, 2014 through December 22, 2014 where he lit the lamp only three times.
As for the comparison to Steen, the key is that whatever happened to Steen last year was off-script. He has worked hard to change things that weren’t working and after a slow start has put up good numbers. But Steen was never going to be an elite scorer in the NHL. If he were, his 2013-14 season would have happened long ago, and more than once or twice.
Tarasenko, on the other hand, is a 23-year-old juggernaut in his third year. The bigger question is: have we seen the top of his numbers potential, or is he just getting warmed up?
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This is an important question, because most scoring superstars—and there is every indication Tarasenko is an emerging one—fall into one of two categories. Some of the greatest elite scorers, Ovechkin, for example, hit numbers very typical of their overall production their very first year. Ovi notched 52 goals along with 54 assists his rookie year. In his third season in 2007-08 he scored 65, a feat he has never come close to equaling since. Tony Amonte scored 35 goals his first season, and despite being one of the most consistent scorers of his era he never reached 50 and broke 40 only three times in his 17 seasons. And, of course, Teemu Selanne never came close to matching his NHL-record rookie season when he scored a virtually-unbreakable 76 goals.
But some of the greatest to ever play the game have had, at least for them, “slow” starts. Wayne Gretzky, for example, scored 43 goals his first year, and notched 51 and 55 respectively in his next two seasons before setting the all-time NHL record for 92 goals and 212 points (a record he would best four years later when he would average over 200 points per season over a five-year span).
Similarly, Mario Lemieux put up the relatively humble numbers of 43 goals and 100 points his rookie year, before eventually amassing 70 and 85 goals respectively in consecutive years (including a monster 199-point season in 1988-89). The Golden Brett racked up only 32 goals and 64 points his first season, and starting four years later, scored over 70 goals three years in a row, including his record 86-goal season in 1990-91.
Does this mean Tarasenko will be scoring 70 goals or more three and four years from now? Maybe not. Every player takes a different path. But the difference between #91 last year and this year is unmistakable, and if he improves even half that much between this season and next, he will be alongside or perhaps even overtaking Ovechkin and Stamkos for the scoring lead.
Last year, he racked up 21 goals and 43 points in 64 games. This year, after only 61 games, he has 31 goals and 60 points. Patrick Kane (now sidelined for an estimated 12 weeks after clavicle surgery), Jakub Voracek and Nicklas Backstrom currently co-lead the NHL with 64 points. Tarasenko is in the top five for both goals and points. The odds are good he will exceed this year’s numbers by a healthy margin next year.
Tarasenko generates a lot of shots on goal, but as he matures he will likely get better at picking his spots when he shoots. It is probably fair to say that the Siberian’s work ethic, his humility, and his determination to better himself at every opportunity are additional weapons that have enhanced his value and created respect across the league for the superstar that he is already becoming, and will continue to become.