St. Louis Blues 2015 NHL Mock Draft: Greer or Jaremko?

This is the third in our 2015 NHL Mock Draft series. Here we focus on prospects for the St. Louis Blues in rounds 3 and 4 of the NHL Entry Draft held on June 25 and 26, 2015, in Sunrise, Florida. The first part will concentrate on forwards, and the second part, to appear later this week, will be on goalies.

The St. Louis Blues have been consistently criticized for having one of the weakest prospect pools among current teams in the NHL. Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Willis’ recently-released (March 5, 2015) re-rankings have the Blues sitting at 25th out of the 30 teams.

While Robby Fabbri and Ivan Barbashev are admittedly two exciting prospects, Willis also notes that if not for those two acquisitions last year, the Blues would be ranked dead last. Meanwhile, the Blues parted with possibly their best remaining prospect, Russian forward Maxim Letunov, to Arizona at the trade deadline.

The Blues in their current avatar will likely never be a Chicago Blackhawks type team that is top-heavy in elite scoring skills, but they absolutely could use more of that than they presently have in either their lineup or their prospects corp.

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Looking at their current prospects, a lack of size and physicality jumps out in a league where the Zdeno Charras and Hal Gills are only likely to increase in frequency. Bobby Fabbri may be the best draft pick outside of Tarasenko they’ve had in a number of years in terms of skills, and surely the Blues have high hopes for him as he develops. His physical stats are the obvious downside for him as an overall package: at 5’10 and 170 size-wise he is slightly taller but lighter than Andy McDonald.

Barbeshev, at 6’1 and 190 is better, a shade bigger than Tarasenko. What the Blues should consider, even if it involves a player with certain risks, is someone with above-average size and stature who has shown at least flashes of brilliance but more in the power-forward Keith Tkachuk/Jagr mold.

With no first-round pick, only one second-round pick, and no third-round pick (with two in the fourth round) the picks need to have the same surgical accuracy as last year’s. The other clear need, especially once Allen is eligible for re-upping, is goaltending. Our own Kate Cimini has provided in-depth analysis of the first two rounds.

Next: St. Louis Blues 2015 Mock NHL Draft: Round Two

Both the Blues’ goalies are essentially only good enough to be backups, and the organization lacks not only a solid starter with tested experience (someone, say, on the level of Corey Crawford), but anyone at all who can consistently play without giving up 3 or 4 goals on 16 shots once every two or three games. Sometimes Elliott just doesn’t seem to see the puck, and Allen’s impressive record plummets against playoff teams.

Last year’s third-round pick for the Blues was Jake Walman, a defenseman and a virtual featherweight at that position at 6’1, 170. Walman, ranked 82nd overall in the draft, was described as possessing elite defense skills. He had 10 goals and 22 points in his first GTHL season with the North York Rangers, and has hovered generally around those numbers in his two years since. By far the most notable stat on his sheet for the 2013-14 season with the Toronto Junior Canadiens is his 87 PIMs in 43 games.

Greer looks like a prime diamond-in-the-rough candidate to assume a place on the Blues in the next couple years.

With that in mind, let’s examine three intriguing offensive possibilities for the Blues in the third/fourth round. While the higher-ranked, older player is presented first, it is conceivable that the Blues may want to risk picking the lower-ranked player (Jaremko) first, because people who know about him are going to want to take him off the board.

Third-Round/Fourth Round Pick #1: A.J. Greer (#71 RANK) – H-EAST

Boston University | 6’2, 204 | Shoots left

Sometimes listed at 6’3, sometimes at 6’2, Greer, a Montreal native, plays LW at Boston University. At his second year at Kimball Union Academy, Greer scored 24 goals and notched 39 assists for 63 points in 34 games. A co-captain of the Wildcats, he played left wing on KUA’s top line, which The Hockey News touted as the “most dangerous line in American prep hockey.”

Ryan Kennedy of THN in his recent piece, “The 50 NCAA players you need to know this season,” ranked Greer 10th:

“Big prep school power forward jumps up to Hockey East for his NHL Draft year.”

While Greer has been described as a powerful, raw talent, his numbers at BU would indicate he is adjusting to the next level of play, as he has only 2 goals and 2 assists this year in 31 games. He is playing on the fourth line, and presumably if he were on the first line with phenom and #2 overall Jack Eichel his numbers would look much different.

Future Considerations on mynhldraft.com has the following to say about Greer:

“A massive and raw power forward…generates a good amount of speed and power with his stride…needs to work on foot speed and to keep his feet moving as that is when he is most dangerous…so physically dominant that at times, he looks like a man amongst boys on the ice and in the corners…needs to be more consistent with his physical play…has good athleticism for such a big kid…has a strong shot and hands that make him dangerous down around the opposition’s crease…needs to put on muscle mass and learn to utilize his impressive reach better…raw talent going the NCAA route…has a very impressive upside. (August 2014).”

Greer looks like a prime diamond-in-the-rough candidate to assume a place on the Blues in the next couple years. He clearly needs development and mentorship on the finer aspects of the game, including two-way play and back-checking, of which there has been no mention.

Because Greer is obviously still probably a couple years away from hitting the ice at Scottrade, the question of which player he would replace is a bit vague. Alexander Steen and Jaden Schwartz, the Blues’ top left wingers, shouldn’t be going anywhere in that time, and the other, Chris Porter, has enforcing skills that would be missed, though possibly by that time the Blues might be well to switch him out.

One option for Greer, still so early in his development, is to replace someone like Steve Ott or Olli Jokinen, both centers who shoot left-handed, if they are still with the team then.

Third-Round/Fourth Round Pick #2: Jake Jaremko – (#107 RANK) HIGH-MN

Minnesota State University | 5’11, 170 | Shoots left

How many high school kids do you suppose play hockey in Minnesota? I am guessing the sport is as prerequisite to life up there as surfing is in California: every kid wants to do it. And Minnesota is a big state.

While his goal production is impressive, his pace of over two assists per game suggests he has incredible vision in transition and sees scoring chances before they develop.

Jake Jaremko just won the 2015 Mr. Hockey award for best high school senior in Minnesota.

Let that sink in for a moment. Jaremko tallied 25 goals and a whopping 54 assists in 29 games (2.72 points per game) for Elk River High School this year. The team was one game away from the State Tournament.

Former Mr. Hockey winners also include Ryan McDonagh and Nick Bjugstad.

So what does this kid bring to the table? A work-in-progress, obviously. And his physical stats are on the order of Fabbri’s. But he is in high school. The mass will develop. This is the scoop on Jaremko according to Elite Prospects :

“A nimble and advantageous two-way forward, Jacob Jaremko is a force to be reckoned with at both ends of the ice. He is a quick thinker, and his hands and feet are just as quick as his mind; effective in all situations and is proactive when it comes to taking advantage of and capitalizing on small mistakes and turnovers given up by opponents. All-in-all, an athletic two-way player with tremendous hockey sense and work ethic; his refined abilities will afford him the chance to become a game-changer wherever he plays. (Curtis Joe, EP 2015)”

This kind of praise suggests that Jaremko has a lot of the more subtle elite skills that others (including Greer, for example) have to be taught or have difficulty incorporating into their game. And while he does not seem to possess the mass or big shot of a power forward, he seems to have more of the hand-and-eye coordination and mental sharpness of a Gretzky or Datsyuk. While his goal production is impressive, his pace of over two assists per game suggests he has incredible vision in transition and sees scoring chances before they develop.

Because he is a left-hand shot, he would be looking to replace the same players as Greer, though perhaps another year later than Greer.

His first year at Minnesota State University will tell us a lot. If his numbers drop appreciably like Greer’s have at BU, he may not be quite the monstrous talent it appears he could be at this juncture. His size could come into play there. But the Blues could be looking at another Tarasenko—or more—if they just reach out and take a risk with this guy. Speaking of which, how cool would that be, having someone like Vladi Tarasenko to mentor him as he comes up into the Blues organization?

Let us know what you think of these draft prospects, Blues fans!

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