St. Louis Blues Riding Right Wave For Cup Run

The St. Louis Blues have all the right things going for a deep playoff run in the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs. At least as of the opening puck-drop of Game One of their quarterfinal series with the Minnesota Wild, the Blues can check off all the major items teams and coaches look for entering the playoffs.

Strong Seeding And A Likelihood Of Home Ice Through The Conference Finals

The Blues have the number two seed in the Western Conference, meaning they will have home ice through the Conference Finals against any team not named the Anaheim Ducks.

While players often downplay the advantage of home ice, every coach and every player wants it, and fans who know the game are aware that history slants heavily in favor of home teams, especially in those all-important Game Sevens.

Arguably the most important advantage of home ice has nothing to do with fan support or team performance but with the fact that the home team gets the last substitution, and can get more of the matchups it wants on the ice than the visiting team. In a close series that can be another difference-maker, especially if the home team is good at winning faceoffs in the offensive zone that night.

It is also far from a foregone conclusion that the Ducks will make it to the Conference Final. Like the Blues, the Ducks have a reputation the last few years for strong regular season teams that exit early in the playoffs. Indeed, Bruce Boudreau-led teams in general have suffered this fate, going back to the President’s Trophy-winning Washington Capitals in 2009-10, who lost their first-round series against the eighth-seeded Montreal Canadiens.

Sure, there have been exceptions across all sports like the Los Angeles Kings that have won the Stanley Cup on the road. But this has never been and is still not a winning recipe for a world championship. Just knowing that the Blues will have home ice against all the teams in their division gives them a psychological edge that will most likely matter in every series they play.

Jun 13, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; The Stanley Cup is on the ice after the Los Angeles Kings defeated the New York Rangers in second overtime during game five of the 2014 Stanley Cup Final at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Even as abysmal as the Blues were at the end of last season, they won their first two home playoff games against one of the elite teams in the NHL, the Chicago Blackhawks. Enough said.

Ending On A Winning Note

Last season the Blues lost their last six regular-season games in a row, even losing to teams who rested their star players and for whom the games were meaningless. After their first two wins at home in their first-round series against the Blackhawks, their collapse mirrored the end of their regular season.

This year the Blues won five of their last six games, and all but one were against teams who made the playoffs. Their lone loss, 1-0 to the Winnipeg Jets, only transpired due to a ridiculous no-goal call and numerous other officiating gaffes that made the game arguably the worst-called one-sided game of the Blues’ entire season.

Health And Depth

The St. Louis Blues have both going into the playoffs this year. Just as critical to the Blues’ demise in last season’s playoffs as their downward spiral—and in significant part the cause of it—was the plethora of injuries the team suffered in the final month of the season.

With a half-dozen players injured before the playoffs, including Vladimir Tarasenko, David Backes, T.J. Oshie, and Vladimir Sobotka, the Blues could not congeal again as a unit in time. Oshie was still out as the playoffs began, and Blackhawks defenseman Brent Seabrook’s hit on David Backes knocked him out of the series for Games Three and Four, during which time the Blues were clearly not the same team.

Feb 26, 2015; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; St. Louis Blues forward Patrik Berglund (21) celebrates with the bench after scoring against the Winnipeg Jets during the second period at MTS Centre. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports

This year the only scratches in Game One against the Wild will be healthy ones. When Vladimir Tarasenko and Alexander Steen returned from their injuries for the finale against the Wild, they made immediate and game-deciding contributions. Tarasenko scored their second goal and assisted on the third, while Steen assisted on both the second and third goals scored within 90 seconds of one another.

Both goalies are healthy as well, and in addition to providing a one-two punch in goal, the Blues boast two juggernaut lines, the Steen-Oshie-Backes (“SOB”) line and the Schwartz-Lehtera-Tarasenko (“STL”) line. Except for the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Blues can roll two lines with more collective points between them than any other team in the NHL.

Next: STL Line Needs Vladimir Tarasenko Back Before Cup Run

That kind of power will keep opposing coaches up late at night. The Blues have five players with over 50 points and nine with over 40 points. (By comparison, the Blackhawks have four players with over 50 points and nine with over 30 points, and so do the President’s Trophy-winning New York Rangers.)

Moreover, with center Paul Stastny and veteran forward Steve Ott keying the third and fourth lines, the Blues can roll four balanced lines on the attack. This is huge in the playoffs, if one or two star players’ sticks go silent for a spell. Lately the fourth “grinder” line of Steve Ott-Marcel Goc-Ryan Reaves has been both the most punishing and hard-working line of the four.

The St. Louis Blues scored 248 goals during the regular season, more than any playoff team except the Bolts and the Rangers, and more than any team in the Western Conference except Dallas. A couple of the most infrequent scorers have recently had success. The oft-maligned Patrik Berglund has scored a third of his 12 goals in the last two weeks of the season. Jori Lehtera, who had scored only one goal in his previous 11 outings, netted two in the season finale.

The Blues’ depth on the back line is well-documented, and they made acquisitions at the trade deadline that have shored up the blue line even more. With Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester, Kevin Shattenkirk, and Barrett Jackman all healthy and productive, the Blues front one of the best blueline rosters in the NHL.

Apr 9, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues defenseman Alex Pietrangelo (27) during the first period against the Chicago Blackhawks at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Blues also added blueliner Zbynek Michalek from the Coyotes at the trade deadline, a reliable, mobile defender with superb defensive-zone skills and a big right-hand shot that can contribute on the powerplay. Newcomer Robert Bortuzzo, 6’4, 215 pounds, also picked up at the deadline from the Pittsburgh Penguins, is a solid, physical, no-nonsense addition to the D-corps. If one of them goes down, Peterri Lindbohm, a younger and nearly-as-big version of Bortuzzo, can be called up to take his place. Blueliner Carl Gunnarsson, after a couple early puck management errors, appears to be settling in to a more stable presence on the back line.

Hot Goaltending At The Right Time

The knock on the Blues for years has been their goaltending. Last year they sent off Jaro Halak and traded at the deadline for Buffalo Sabres stalwart/Double Agent Ryan Miller, whom an underworld figure must have secretly and lavishly paid by the soft goal.

Following the unrepentant Miller’s release, Brian Elliott took over the starter position and has played well, it seems, with a 26-14-3 record, a 2.26 GAA, and a .917 save percentage. He had five shutouts.

Elliott does splendidly, until he doesn’t, which generally transpires every third game when he lets in 3 or 4 of the first ten shots and the Blues go down in flames. (See Dallas Stars 4-1 February 17 victory where they scored 3 goals on their first 6 shots, and Columbus Blue Jackets 7-1 victory February 6 where they scored 4 goals in their first 14 shots as two such examples.) This is a problem for a team aspiring to win the Cup.

Backup Jake Allen finished 22-7-4 with a 2.28 GAA, a .913 save percentage, and four shutouts. Hitch protected Allen well for most of the season, only starting him against non-elite teams, and he did very well in those contests. Then, Hitch started Allen against the high-flying Montreal Canadiens on February 24, which the Habs won 5-2. Allen’s save percentage was a geriatric .783.

Granted, the Blues, as they sometimes do, committed puck management errors and surrendered multiple odd-man breaks, but the notion Allen could steal those kinds of games did not seem any more plausible than it was with Elliott.

Hitch has given both his goalies the supreme motivation to play beyond their means and in the closing four games of the season, both men met the challenge.

However, Allen redeemed himself a month later in back-to-back road contests against the Detroit Red Wings and the Pittsburgh Penguins, playoff-bound teams, on March 22 and 24 respectively. Allen played strong in the Detroit game, allowing only one goal in regulation off a weird bounce, and lost in OT off a controversial broken-stick goal. In Pittsburgh he only gave up two goals and the Blues won in OT, 3-2.

Hitch’s Brilliant Ploy

Dec 29, 2013; Dallas, TX, USA; St. Louis Blues head coach Ken Hitchcock watches his team take on the Dallas Stars during the game at the American Airlines Center. The Blues defeated the Stars 3-2 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Then in the crucial last week of the season Hitch started Allen in three consecutive games, and Allen stood on his head in every one. He made numerous highlight-reel saves including an early 2-on-0 break and kept all but one of 39 shots out of the net against the Blackhawks on Easter Sunday en route to the Blues’ win. He was awarded first star. Allen was awarded second star in the second game in spite of losing 1-0 to the Peg. In the second game against the Blackhawks he saved 21 of 22 shots and was first star.

In the final game of the season, Hitch started Elliott, probably both to humor his starting goalie and to see how he would fare in the last game, knowing that Allen had possibly set the table to get the nod in the first game against the Wild in the first round. Elliott played strong, keeping it scoreless with a spectacular early sequence and saving 23 of 25 overall.

Hitch has given both his goalies the supreme motivation to play beyond their means and in the closing four games of the season, both men met the challenge. Nothing is more defining of playoff success than a hot hand in goal, and until proven otherwise, the Blues have that as of now.

Apr 11, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues goalie Brian Elliott (1) lays on the ice with the puck trapped under him as a crowd gathers in front of the net during the third period of the NHL game against the Minnesota Wild at Scottrade Center. The Blues won the game 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports

The Blues know they will be facing Dubnyk and that is no small challenge, though chasing him in the last game either team has played may not help his confidence. As CBS Sports’ Chris Peters writes, Dubnyk is a “complete unknown” in the playoffs and Game One will be his first-ever Stanley Cup appearance.

The Wild, meanwhile, must prepare for both Elliott and Allen, as Hitch is being mum about who will get the nod to start. If the starter faulters, he has a strong backup.

NHL.com’s Louie Korac reported Hitchcock said this about the Wild series:

"“The hot hand for me in the playoffs is . . . I think you’ve really got to base on who played well against the opposition . . . Some goalies are set up for different type of opposition. [Elliott] has played more against this team and he’s played well. We like them both though . . . [W]e’ve got a veteran guy who’s had a good experience and a young guy who’s really emerging. I’ve got the best of both worlds.”"

Vladimir Tarasenko

Not much needs to be said here. Leading the Blues with 37 goals and 73 points in 76 games, Vladimir Tarasenko is unlike any Blues player since Brett Hull. In his first real playoff campaign last year, Tarasenko came into Game One of the Blackhawks series after missing a month with a hand injury and surgery and scored a goal. By Game Four he had racked up a total of four goals and led the NHL playoffs. Then against the Wild in this season’s finale, his first game back from an injury, he notches a goal and an assist.

Mar 24, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) handles the puck as Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Paul Martin (L) defends during the first period at the CONSOL Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

If you believe we have seen the best this kid will deliver, that is still a lot for any team to contend with. If, like me, you believe we are seeing the low end of what he will do later on, he may propel the Blues to the Stanley Cup Finals this year, and help them win it next year, if not now. If the St. Louis Blues stay healthy, continue to get strong goaltending, and Tarasenko does his thing, it is hard to imagine who will stop them.

Let us know your thoughts, Blues fans!

Next: Brian Elliott Should Start In Goal Against Wild