Jake Allen: The Best Goalie in Hockey Right Now?

Hey, St. Louis Blues fans, if any of you are in attendance at the Xcel Energy Center on Wednesday night, perhaps you should pack a quarter-pounder to throw on the ice. The Blues may be down 2 games to 1 at the moment, but it certainly cannot be blamed on their red-hot goaltender, Jake Allen.

Having now given up 2 goals or less in his past ten starts, Allen has nearly equalled Ottawa Senators’ regular-season sensation Andrew Hammond, to whom the playoffs have been less kind, for the “Hamburglar” title, or any other description befitting a goalie who is stealing games (or at least keeping his team in them far beyond their means).

The colorful moniker, taken from the striped mascot of McDonald’s, was rightfully earned by Hammond in perhaps the NHL’s biggest second-half story of the regular season, by tying the all-time NHL record set by Boston netminder and HOF’er Frank Brimsek in 1938-39 of allowing two goals or fewer in his first 12 starts.

But the Hamburglar reference takes a back seat to the main storyline here: newbie Jake Allen, between the performances he put together in the last week or so of the regular season against the Chicago Blackhawks (twice in five days) Calgary Flames, and Winnipeg Jets, all teams in the playoffs, along with his first three games of the playoffs, is on a tear no other top-ranked goalie in the playoffs can match.

Why Allen Is The Best Right Now

Nothing in professional sports is as impossible to define and as wildly prone to a lightning-quick reversal of fortune as hot goaltending. But by its very nature, it has to be streaky: two or three games doesn’t qualify as a “hot hand.”

The Blackhawks’ Scott Darling leads both categories in the playoffs with an unearthly .094 GAA and a .975 save percentage, but this is after only two games and, to be fair, his first game was entirely in relief. More significantly, his most recent performances prior to the playoffs were far from spectacular against teams eliminated from playoff contention.

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On April 4, 2015, Darling had a .921 save percentage and gave up 3 goals in a 4-3 win against the league-worst Buffalo Sabres. On April 11, he had a dismal .875 save percentage and gave up 3 goals in a 3-2 loss to the Colorado Avalanche. Keep in mind, these were during a must-win period when the Blackhawks were desperately fighting for every single point for playoff seeding against teams who had nothing to play for.

Next on the playoff list in save percentage is Craig Anderson at .959, who has played one whole game for the Sens in place of the faltering Hammond. Anderson’s GAA of 1.74, however, is still below Allen’s 1.69 (even after last night’s 3-0 loss to the Wild). Prior to that his last performances were abysmal. On March 28 against the hapless Toronto Maple Leafs, Anderson finished 27-of-31 for .871 with a 3.81 GAA, and on the 29th against the Florida Panthers, he finished 33-of-36 for .917 with a GAA of 3.0.

Third in save percentage after Anderson is Montreal MVP Carey Price at .939, just above Allen’s .933. However, Price’s GAA is 1.88, substantially below Allen’s 1.69. Moreover, Price’s most recent games prior to the playoffs were also poor outings. He lost 4-3 in OT to the Detroit Red Wings on April 9, going 24-of-27 for .889 and went a lackluster 19-of-22 for .864 in a 4-3 shootout win over the Maple Leafs.

Second in GAA after Darling, 1/100th of a point above Allen, is Allen’s Minnesota Wild counterpart, Devan Dubnyk, at 1.68. However, Dubnyk’s save percentage is 9th among playoff goalies at .923, compared to Allen’s 4th-place .933. Additionally, while Dubnyk’s two games on April 6 versus Winnipeg and on April 7 versus the Chicago Blackhawks were stellar (32-of-34 for .941 and 32-of-33 for .970 respectively), his final game on April 11 against the Blues was positively dismal in a 4-2 loss, going 11-of-14 for .786.

Apr 11, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues goalie Brian Elliott (1) lays on the ice with the puck trapped under him as a crowd gathers in front of the net during the third period of the NHL game against the Minnesota Wild at Scottrade Center. The Blues won the game 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports

Now let’s look at Allen the past seven games. Note: all of these are games Allen started and played the entire game. Allen presently sits in third place among playoff goalies with a GAA of 1.69 over three games and in fourth place among playoff goalies with a .933 save percentage.

This is a net performance over his past seven games of 176 saves on 185 shots for a .951 save percentage and an absolutely sick 1.29 GAA.

But he is beyond everyone in front of him when you look at performance going back over his last week of the regular season, and even the two consecutive games he started prior to that in late March against playoff teams in the Eastern Conference.

On April 2, 2015, Allen stopped 17-of-18 for a .944 save percentage in a 4-1 win over the Calgary Flames. On April 5, the Snake went 38-of-39 for a .974 save percentage in a 2-1 win over the Chicago Blackhawks. On April 7, Allen went 30-of-31 for .968 in a 1-0 loss to the Winnipeg Jets. Then, on April 9, Allen went 21-of-22 for .955 in a 2-1 win over the Blackhawks in a rematch.

For people without calculators, that’s a sick 106 out of 110 saves over four games with a .964 save percentage and a 1.00 GAA.

Then, in Game One of the Blues’ quarterfinal series against the Wild, Allen went 25-of-27 for a .926 save percentage in a 4-2 loss (they scored two empty netters that don’t count against his stats). In Game Two, the Snake stopped 24 of 25 shots for a .960 save percentage in a 4-1 win over the Wild. Last night, in Game Three, he stopped 21 of 23 shots for a .913 save percentage (excluding the empty netter).

Calculator time again. This is a net performance over his past seven games of 176 saves on 185 shots for a .951 save percentage and an absolutely sick 1.29 GAA.

Allen is, quite frankly, without peer right now in the NHL if you want to talk about the hottest goalie playing.

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Allen, as of this writing, is the only top goalie in the Stanley Cup Playoffs who is playing at a sick level over a number of games without a single bad game.

Even more impressive, when you go back to his last two starts prior to the last week of the regular season, on March 22 against the Detroit Red Wings he finished 23-of-25 for .920 in a 2-1 loss on a broken-stick goal many felt should not have counted and then the next night against the Pittsburgh Penguins in a 3-2 win he went 24-of-26 for a .923 save percentage.

Apr 2, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues goalie Jake Allen (34) blocks the shot of Calgary Flames left wing Jiri Hudler (24) during the third period at Scottrade Center. The St. Louis Blues defeat the Calgary Flames 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Jake Allen, in his last 9 starts, all against teams currently in the playoffs who were desperately gunning for every point they could get, first in the last three weeks of the regular season and then in the first three games of the Blues’ quarterfinal series against the Wild, has a cumulative save percentage of .945 and a GAA of 1.44.

It might be tempting to those who have not have witnessed all of Jake’s recent work to pass these incredible numbers off as a result of the Blues’ stellar defense and shot-blocking. Alas, much of Allen’s best efforts in this stretch have come in the absence of sound puck management and defense, often for whole periods or for most of the game.

Hardcore Blues fans who have seen every period of those games know better. The Blues let the Blackhawks pelt Allen with 39 shots in the 2-1 Easter Sunday game, and in Games One and Three of this series with the Wild the Blues’ puck management and surrender of multiple odd-man breaks could easily have doubled the score or more for the Wild but for Allen’s stellar play.

Present And Future Considerations

The worst possible decision Ken Hitchcock could possibly make right now is to start Brian Elliott in goal.

Let me say that again: the worst possible decision Ken Hitchcock could possibly make right now is to start Brian Elliott in goal. It would be in his wheelhouse to do something like this, not so much on account of Allen but to light a fire under the Blues to play a more solid game. It would be a mistake.

If Allen could get anything remotely resembling the protection Dubnyk got from the Wild last night and in Game One, there is no telling how far he could take them.

Jake Allen is, until the next game proves otherwise, not just the best goalie on the St. Louis Blues. He is the best goalie in the NHL right now. Better than Lundqvist. Better than Price. Better than Dubnyk, and certainly better than Darling.

But goaltending is the most fragile, psychologically labile position in all the major four sports. And, more often than not, a brilliant breakout campaign by a goalie who gets no support from his team at a critical juncture, such as the playoffs, may be next year’s train wreck.

In 1992-93, Curtis Joseph, the Blues’ young phenom between the pipes who inspired signs from fans in the St. Louis Arena reading “Only Jesus has more saves than Joseph,” single-handedly willed the low-seeded Blues not only to an upset but a sweep of the Campbell Conference regular-season champion Chicago Blackhawks, pitching back-to-back shutouts in Games Two and Three.

CuJo then took the Blues to seven games in the second round against the favored Toronto Maple Leafs, which the Leafs eventually won. Joseph finished the playoffs with a 7-4 record, two shutouts, a .938 save percentage, a 2.21 GAA, and was a finalist for the Vezina.

After the defeat, however, Joseph went 0-4 the following year in the first round, with a .905 save percentage and a bloated 3.66 GAA, and an almost identical GAA in 1994-95 with an even worse .865 save percentage. CuJo was never the same again with the Blues, until he was traded to Edmonton in 1996.

For every story of a goalie who performs like Allen is now and delivers the same sort of performance the following year, there are ten more who go the route of CuJo.

If Allen could get anything remotely resembling the protection Dubnyk got from the Wild last night and in Game One, there is no telling how far he could take them. The Blues need to step up and support Jake Allen far beyond the slipshod manner they have employed in two-thirds of this series to this point, not only for the obvious reason, but for their future success as well, for the team as a whole and for their netminder.

Let us know your thoughts, Blues fans!

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Why Allen Is The Best Right Now

Present And Future Considerations

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