St. Louis Blues: Cup-Worthy, In Need Of Rebuild

The St. Louis Blues are that rarest of sports franchises at the moment: a team that has been on the cusp of greatness the past several seasons that has also clearly demonstrated it is in need of a team rebuild.

OK, maybe not a Buffalo Sabres or Florida Panthers type of rebuild, but a rebuild nonetheless.

Most of the core players who have underachieved in near-historic proportions the past four years in the postseason need to go. It is impossible to imagine the circumstances under which this same group (and, regrettably, under the same coach) could plausibly engineer a complete turnaround and win the Stanley Cup next year.

T.J. Oshie. David Backes. Barret Jackman. Alexander Steen. Paul Stastny. Steve Ott. Jay Bouwmeester. Brian Elliott. These players have been the face of the St. Louis Blues for the past several years.

And they are all names that have invariably had a “1” or a “0” next to them to represent each player’s total offensive output each of the first-round no-shows the past three years.

OK, lumping Brian Elliott in there isn’t fair. But he has let down the Blues equally in other ways during that time. And with Jake Allen clearly coming into his own in the home stretch of the regular season and in most of the first-round loss, his services are really no longer needed.

What Is The First Thing The Blues Need To Do?

This one is a no-brainer: they must first sign Tarasenko. And if you think $6 or $7 million per is gonna get it done, you must have just emerged from a time capsule. Back in March, I wrote about what Tarasenko is likely to wind up with, and concluded that he would likely be signed for between $8 million and $9.5 million per year.

While I still believe that range is valid, given his stellar performance in the first round against the Wild, I believe it is more likely he will sign for between $9 million and $10 million per year.

Preparing for the stratospheric salary he will secure–if not with the Blues, then with another team–means fathoming Vladimir Tarasenko as a hockey player, including not only what he already brings to the St. Louis Blues, but what he will bring in the future.

And what might that be, you ask? The Stanley Cup, especially if he continues to improve, as his numbers to this point in his career indicate, and any other Blues players can actually score.

Feb 20, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) as seen waiting for a face-off during the second period at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports

The critical factor here is that both during the regular season and in the playoffs his numbers have risen appreciably over last year, and there is no indication whatever that he has “topped out” in any sense. This is important.

When you sign a superstar to a bridge contract, you are basing the salary on how he is performing now to see how he will perform later. When you sign him to a multi-year deal, you are paying for future performance. Everything about this kid’s career so far points to the conclusion that he is just getting warmed up.

He has only gotten to play in one playoff series the past two years, but in that time he has scored 10 goals in 12 games . . . No player in the NHL over the past several years has come even close to that kind of a clip

Ken Campbell of The Hockey News recently echoed these sentiments as to Tarasenko’s worth to his team. Campbell mentions that if Tarasenko gets an offer for somewhere between $8 million and $9 million per year that other teams will have to drive up the price and that to match it the Blues may well wind up paying $10 million to $12 million per year for his rights.

Blues GM Doug Armstrong has made it clear that the Blues intend to sign Tarasenko before the July 5 deadline when other teams will then be able to submit offer sheets and those sky-high offers can come. But why on earth would Vladimir Tarasenko sign for 6 or 7 million dollars a year for a long-term contract when he knows he can get millions more? Unless his mom is his agent?

Campbell marshalls impressive stats to illustrate Tarasenko’s worth to the team compared to the NHL’s other premier players.

Tarasenko, in addition to leading the Blues with 73 regular-season points and 6 postseason goals in just the first series, scored a total of 24 goals (including SO goals) in 2014-15 that either tied the score or put the Blues ahead, second in the NHL behind Alex Ovechkin. 16 of those goals put the Blues ahead, third behind Ovechkin and Jonathan Toews, who each had 17.

Of those 16 goals, 10 put the Blues ahead for good in the game, second only to Toews.

While these stats are impressive, the one that carries the most weight concerns his postseason production. Because the Blues have underachieved on historic levels on that stage, he has only gotten to play in one playoff series the past two years, but in that time he has scored 10 goals in 12 games.

There is nothing in his play to this point to suggest his production would fall off in successive series. Why would it? Last year he scored four goals against the Blackhawks. This year he scored six in the same number of games against a stingier, more disciplined team.

No player in the NHL over the past several years has come even close to that kind of a clip. This year’s leader, Tyler Johnson of the Tampa Bay Lightning, has 12 goals in 21 games. Corey Perry scored an impressive 10 goals in 16 games for Anaheim.

Apr 11, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues center Jori Lehtera (12) is congratulated by Vladimir Tarasenko (91) after scoring a goal during the third period against the Minnesota Wild at Scottrade Center. The Blues won the game 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports

Tarasenko’s agent’s job will be to point all of this out, and he will.

While it could be lower, and it could also be higher, let’s say that the Blues sign Tarasenko for between $9 million and $10 million per year. I believe his final salary will be somewhere in that range. Now we can look at everything else.

What Else Do The Blues Have To Do?

Well, the first thing is that they will have to shed a ton of cap space to make room for that huge salary. This is problematic, given the Blues’ current and long-term salary cap issues.

On June 2, Bleacher Report’s Lyle Richardson ranked the top ten worst teams with long-term cap issues, and the Blues were number ten. The Blues currently have over $56.3 million invested in 15 players for the 2015-16 season. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman believes the salary cap for next year is likely to settle around $71 million.

That leaves only $14.7 million of space to work with, before the Blues must ink both Tarasenko and goalie Jake Allen to new deals.

The Blues also have more than $40.4 million sunk in 9 players for the 2016-17 campaign. And for 2017-18, they have over $20 million invested in 5 players.

Fortunately, this will not be as daunting as it might otherwise be, with the bevy of no-show, overpaid athletes the Blues are currently carrying. This is easier, for example, than what the Chicago Blackhawks and the Los Angeles Kings are looking at, who have even steeper numbers to deal with and far fewer underachieving players.

This does mean, however, that the Blues may have to get creative. Here’s an interesting idea: trade T.J. Oshie with his $4.175 million per salary and Barret Jackman with his $3.25 million per salary to the Lightning for Hedman and his $4 million salary, which is fixed until 2017-18, along with a draft pick.

Apr 20, 2015; Saint Paul, MN, USA; St. Louis Blues forward T.J. Oshie (74) protects the puck from Minnesota Wild forward Nino Niederreiter (22) during the first period in game three of the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Xcel Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

That’s a net cut of $3.425 million off the Blues’ cap space over the next two years, the pickup of an extraordinary young talent with proven deep-run performance, and an extra draft pick to help compensate for this year’s fallow return.

Here’s another alternative: trade Jay Bouwmeester and his $5.4 million salary along with T.J. Oshie and his $4.175 million salary to the New York Rangers for Rick Nash ($7.9 million). That will shave off $1.675 million and give the St. Louis Blues a top-six that includes Vladimir Tarasenko and Rick Nash. Wow.

May 22, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; New York Rangers left wing Rick Nash (61) scores a goal past Tampa Bay Lightning goalie Ben Bishop (30) in the first period in game four of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

A straight-up Oshie-for-Nash trade probably won’t satisfy the Rangers, and at any rate that would only increase the Blues’ cap burden.

However, given the ongoing vilification of the Rangers’ D-corp in light of their Conference Finals loss, Bouwmeester and his blue line stability could be attractive to the Blueshirts.

Here’s a straight-up one-for-one trade involving Oshie that would be the greatest trade that sounds terrible of the entire off-season: Oshie for the Rangers’ Chris Kreider, currently at $2.6 million. This guy was huge for the Blueshirts in this year’s playoff run, and while his 21 goals and 25 assists in 80 games are not that far off from Oshie’s 19 goals and 36 assists in 72 games, his 7 playoff goals and 2 assists in 19 games are miles beyond Oshie.

This included clutch goals in Games Five and Six of the Rangers’ series against the Washington Capitals that took the Blueshirts from a 3-1 deficit to a 3-3 tie in the series. He also scored the game-winning goal in Game Four against the Lightning and led the team in playoff goals.

Jun 6, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Brent Seabrook (7) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the third period in game two of the 2015 Stanley Cup Final at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

What the Blues need, of course, is a Corey Perry or a Marian Gaborik who can step up and score repeatedly and often in the playoffs, the way Tarasenko can. But the Blues can’t afford those players. Landing Brent Seabrook, who may well be a casualty for the cap-strapped Blackhawks, would be a spectacular upgrade, but is likely to cost in excess of $8,000,000 per year.

Sit back for a minute and imagine Lucic and Backes on the same line if they keep him. Some faint-hearted opposing players may phone in sick just to avoid playing them.

Instead, Army and his scouting staff need to reach down deep and look for mid-range players whose are affordable but whose playoff performances match or even exceed their regular-season numbers.

Using Bouwmeester or T.J. Oshie to engineer a trade with Boston for left winger power forward Milan Lucic, who at $6.5 million is likely to be an upcoming casualty, is another possibility. Our own Kate Cimini made the point a couple weeks ago that with Hitchcock having the reins for one more year, the pressure will be on Hitch to retool the roster to make his system work or prove to fail.

Bouwmeester is not getting $5.4 million because he is a dependable defenseman, which he mostly is. He is getting that hefty salary because in the past he has also been a significant offensive contributor, consistently tallying between 20 and 30 assists every year. In 2014-15, however, he finished with a paltry 2 goals and 11 assists in 72 games. In the playoffs he was not only held pointless but made a couple very costly poor plays.

Lucic is as tough a customer as they come, but his numbers in the last two postseasons in which he has played are still better than Oshie’s. In 2013-14 he had 4 goals and 3 assists in 12 games. Especially since Backes can play center, sit back for a minute and imagine Lucic and Backes on the same line if they keep him. Some faint-hearted opposing players may phone in sick just to avoid playing them.

Mar 26, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Bruins left wing Milan Lucic (17) during the third period against the Anaheim Ducks at TD Banknorth Garden. The Anaheim Ducks won 3-2 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

With Oshie and Dimitrij Jaskin the Blues are in sore need of upgrade at RW. Another trade that a lot of fans would see as lopsided that would benefit the Blues greatly is a one-on-one trade of Oshie for the Minnesota Wild’s Nino Niederreiter. Currently making $2.67M per until 2017, he notched 4 goals and a helper in 10 playoff games and was a skilled yet vexing, physical presence throughout the series against the Blues.

These are but a few examples of directions in which the Blues could go. There are an almost infinite amount of possibilities, but this gives at least the general flavor. Keeping Backes and Steen and jettisoning the others, and adding Hedman and/or Lucic or Niederreiter would give Hitch a serious upgrade to his system.

May 3, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Blackhawks goalie Corey Crawford (50) makes a save on a tip from Minnesota Wild right wing Nino Niederreiter (22) during the third period in game two of the second round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the United Center. Chicago won 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Paul Stastny, based on last year’s numbers and his playoff no-show, is barely worth half his $6.5 million salary. But, like Oshie, other teams might bite on him. His faceoff skills are always an asset.

On the other hand, at least in this author’s opinion, the grinder line of Ryan Reaves, Patrik Berglund, and possibly even Chris Porter have earned another year, and their salaries make them good beads to slide down that abacus come salary cap time. What they would get from these players in trade is minimal.

Mar 10, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing Ryan Reaves (75) during the game against the Winnipeg Jets in the first period at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Steve Ott and the Blues found out that the agitator role has become a much-diminished one in the Stanley Cup playoffs, easily the most disciplined playoffs I’ve seen in decades, and there is little else to recommend him, though there are probably plenty of teams who would love to have him on their side.

His salary at $2.6 million is not so prohibitive that keeping him on will seriously compromise the Blues’ plans. The question is a more philosophical one: is his role one that the NHL has outgrown? If so, paying $2.6 million next season for it makes little sense.

Carl Gunnarsson and his $3.15 million salary simply has to go. Same with Zbynek Michalek.

What The Blues Must Not Do

What the Blues cannot afford is to trade players who have consistently wilted in the postseason for other, more highly-paid players who have also consistently wilted in the postseason. An Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, or Tyler Seguin, aside from a massive cap hit, simply puts the Blues in the same lamentable position they are already in, and is the financial equivalent of injecting an air bubble into the carotid artery.

Along those lines, while Nash is attractive for his regular-season production, his playoff history leaves something to be desired, and that should be a concern for the Blues in any negotiations regarding Nash, or any other marquee player like him. At least he did finally show up in the last couple playoff games, but it was really a case of too little too late.

Apr 24, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues goalie Jake Allen (34) blocks a shot against the Minnesota Wild during the third period in game five of the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scottrade Center. The Minnesota Wild defeat the St. Louis Blues 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The STL line has chemistry that is worth leaving in place, and those three players plus Jake Allen, Shattenkirk, Pietrangelo, Steen, and possibly Backes with Hitch in place another year, along with Robert Bortuzzo and prospects Petteri Lindbohm, Robby Fabbri, and Ivan Barbashev, are a talented and dynamic group around which to build a team of players who can compete and come up big in the playoffs as well as the regular season.

Tell us your thoughts on trades you think should happen, Blues fans!

Next: St. Louis Blues Rumors: Blues Interested In Craig Anderson

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