St. Louis Blues: The Potential Re-Signing of David Backes

The St. Louis Blues will have a tough decision to make this offseason on one of the franchise’s top players. Many believe a re-sign may be out of the question.

David Backes has been one of the top producers for the St. Louis Blues since 2008-2009. He’s amassed 454 points (204 Goals, 250 Assists) in his career with the Blues in ten seasons.

He has absolutely been a key player for the Blues and it hasn’t changed this season, as he has 39 points (19 goals, 20 assists) through 73 games right now. It might take a hot stretch to get Backes his third straight 50 point season, but he still has a pretty good season without the nice round number.

It might take a hot stretch to get Backes his third straight 50 point season, but he still has a pretty good season without the nice round number.

Backes will be entering the postseason healthy for the second season in a row, so hopefully this allows for a nice run for him and for him to finally get the chance to lift Lord Stanley.So, it is clear the Blues will have a tough decision to make on the 31-year-old center.

So, it is clear the Blues will have a tough decision to make on the 31-year-old center. So, let’s take a look at some comparables and what they tell us about what the future may hold for David Backes.

David Legwand

The first player I want to take a look at is David Legwand, who is 35 and is a nearly identical player to Backes.

In 15 seasons with Nashville, Detroit, Ottawa and Buffalo the Detroit, Michigan native has 566 points (210 Goals, 356 Assists). While his point production is a bit lower than Backes’ he is still a very comparable player to Backes.

The important thing to note here is that Legwand signed a contract extension in 2008 for six years at age 28, four years younger than Backes will be in May. In the eight years since the extension, Legwand has 299 points, slightly more than half his production in his career. However, once you factor in his age, you see a drop in production after his age 31 season, as he has just 125 points in the four years since turning 32.

However, once you factor in his age, you see a drop in production after his age 31 season, as he has just 125 points in the four years since turning 32.

Then you factor in that nearly half of those points came in the 2013-2014 season with Detroit and Nashville (51), and it looks even worse for Legwand. Since that season he has just a total of 40 points in 150 games with Ottawa and Buffalo.

So, Legwand definitely offers some concern for a potential David Backes contract extension, as Backes is only getting older.

Shane Doan

There is another guy to look at here that gives some light into what an extension with Backes might look like and it is Shane Doan.

Doan has been in the league since 1995-96 when he broke into the league with the original Winnipeg Jets and ever since the 1999-2000 season, has been putting up solid numbers year in and year out. Throughout his 20 seasons, Doan has 941 points (393 goals, 548 assists). Those are some pretty impressive numbers, as like Backes Doan has goal totals at or around 30 for most of his career.

Like Backes, Doan became a free agent around age 31 in 2007-2008. Since that season has put up fairly consistent numbers for the Coyotes, putting up over 50 points for five straight seasons after his new deal with the Coyotes.

In his 37-39 seasons, his numbers have dropped slightly, but including this season he still has over 20 goals in two of those three seasons. Doan does play RW instead of C, so there is a slight difference, but many have thought a move to RW could make Backes more effective.

Vincent Lecavalier

The third and final player we will look at for comparison is a very extreme example of regression. That player is Vincent Lecavalier. A player who was one of the best forwards in the league for his first ten years in the league.

Starting in 1999-2000 Lecavalier set the league on fire with his prodigious production that included a 108 point season (52 goals, 56 assists) in 2006-07 and a 92 point season (40 goals, 52 assists) in 2007-2008.

After that Lecavalier put up some solid three straight seasons above the 50 point mark, and a 49 point season after that. In 39 games with the Lightning in 2012-2013, Lecavalier put up a decent line of 10 goals and 22 assists.

Lecavalier was a free agent after his age 32 season, and signed a 5-year $22,000,000 deal with the Philadelphia Flyers. Lecavalier was actually courted pretty hard Blues’ GM Doug Armstrong, but he obviously helped the Blues out by not signing with them.

This is due to Lecavalier’s historic regression, as he fell pretty hard with Philadelphia — totaling 58 points in parts of three seasons with the Flyers.

Summation

These are deals that are fresh in mind, as we prepare for Backes’ free agency this summer. As a big fan of Backes, I am hopeful a deal is worked out between him and the Blues. The concern here is that the Blues have potential deals for Jaden Schwartz, Jake Allen, Brian Elliott, Kevin Shattenkirk, Joel Edmundson, and Alex Steen all coming up in the next two years.

Currently, they sit at having $2, 574, 934 in cap space according to spotrac. In terms of money coming off of the books, they have about $8,566,667 coming in relief. However, unless a trade is made to remove contracts like Patrik Berglund, Jori Lehtera, or Jay Bouwmeester it does not seem like there is the space to afford deals to both Backes and Schwartz this offseason.

Next: Stastny's Performance May be the Key Factor for Blues

Guys like Backes don’t grow on trees, but neither does money. With the cap likely going down next season, I am glad I am not a member of Blues’ management this offseason.