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St. Louis Blues On a Crash Course to Meet Blackhawks in First Round

By Steven McNeil |
Mar 9, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing Troy Brouwer (36) celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the Chicago Blackhawks during the third period at Scottrade Center. The St. Louis Blues defeat the Chicago Blackhawks 3-2 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 9, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing Troy Brouwer (36) celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the Chicago Blackhawks during the third period at Scottrade Center. The St. Louis Blues defeat the Chicago Blackhawks 3-2 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The St. Louis Blues have five games left in the regular season and it is going to take a sparkling next five games to win the division. Which means they will face the Blackhawks in the first round.

The Chicago Blackhawks have played dismally in March, but it has not moved them lower than third place in the Western Conference and Central Division, and it likely won’t move them lower than that position as we head toward the playoffs. This lines them up for a rematch with their 2014 first round opponent in our St. Louis Blues.

The Blues are currently tied with the Dallas Stars for first in the division, but Dallas does hold the tie-breaker in ROW.  This means that it is going to take a lot for the Blues to come away with the division title after the last five games of the season.

Sports Club Stats has a great statistical measurement of the different playoff opponents the Blues could face in the first round, as well as where the Blues would finish with their different point totals. As of right now, the Blackhawks hold the greatest percentage chance of being the first round matchup for the Blues.

To get above a 30% chance to finish first in the division the Blues need to come away with at least seven points in their next five games. That gives them three wins and one overtime/shootout loss in those last five games, meaning they can only lose one out of their next five games in regulation.

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If the Blues do this, then they would easily fend off the Blackhawks for second place and would hold onto home ice advantage, but this may not be good enough to overtake the Stars.

In order to get a higher percentage chance to win the division and win the rights to face last season’s tough first round opponent in the Minnesota Wild, the Blues would have to either go 4-1-0 or 3-0-2, making the room for error much smaller.

While the Blues next three games are very winnable, they aren’t going to be pushovers. They will play Boston on Friday, then go to Colorado and play the Avalanche who have had good success against the Blues this season, Arizona is a team on the rise and will be looking to finish the season strong in their hopes to make the playoffs next season.

However, the last two games will be against Chicago and Washington who are two of the best teams in the league. The Blackhawks will be looking to knock their potential playoff opponent down a notch and will also be trying to get their game right ahead of the playoffs. On top of that Chicago is always a tough place to play for the Blues.

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While there is a chance Washington may be resting a few key players to make sure nobody is injured, they are the best team in the league and will be wrapping up a President’s Trophy winning season, while looking for revenge against the Blues who embarrassed them last week in a 4-0 shutout.

This will also likely feature T.J. Oshie’s return to St. Louis, and he could be hungry to perform in front of his former teammates and former home crowd. So, we cannot count out the Caps coming into town and beating the Blues as a playoff tune-up.

If the Blackhawks are the first round opponent, the Blues need to be on their A-Game. The offense needs to be as good as it has been this month, and it will be important for them to continue to push like they did last night.

The defense needs to continue to be suffocating and limit the opportunities that guys like Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, and Jonathan Toews can get. The Blues continually left Kane open in 2014, and that cannot happen again. The Blues’ new shutdown line in Alex Steen, David Backes, and Patrik Berglund need to body up Panarin and Kane and not let them get comfortable.

I thought last night was the perfect example of how the Blues have evolved over the course of the season, last night the Blues took an early first-period lead that was eroded by the end of the first period. Before that happened, Ken Hitchcock was interviewed and stated that he was worried that the team was going to fall asleep and let the Avalanche back into the game like they had done in the past.

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The Blues answered these concerns in the second period with a strong two-goal period and kept their foot on the Avalanche’s throat.

With this type of performance and the suffocating D not letting guys get open, the Blues can beat the big bad Blackhawks.

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