St. Louis Blues Rumor Mill: Latest On Kevin Shattenkirk

The Stanley Cup Finals aren’t even over and the rumor mills are already cranking. The St. Louis Blues are heavily involved in these rumors.

There are several rumors making the rounds at this point and time. Some include draft picks, some include players, some involve free agents to bring in and some involve players leaving.

For now, let’s streamline the focus to Kevin Shattenkirk. The puck-moving defenseman could be on the move quicker than anticipated.

One of the likely trade partners being discussed is the Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers are in need of defense and have an abundance of options to trade in return.  They are also in a similar cap situation as the Blues.

The question is, what would come in return? We’ve already discussed their unwillingness to part with their #4 overall pick. So, if they are not willing to deal their potential, then what could they offer the Blues that would make them willing to part with a top four defender?

According to people who cover the team on a regular basis, the Blues could actually haul in top six forwards in return for Shattenkirk. That sounds great, but it could prove to be a double-edged sword.

Both Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall earn $6 million per year. Some will ask how the Blues could afford that if they are unwilling to give that sort of money to David Backes or just slightly less to Troy Brouwer.

It’s not exactly an apples to apples comparison. The numbers being discussed regarding the Blues’ own free agents are with the understanding of the Blues’ current roster. Trading Shattenkirk for a $6 million player would actually only add $1.75 million to the payroll.

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The double-edged sword part comes with the length of contracts. If either of those players lived up to their contract, it’s no problem. If they don’t, then you are locked in for the rest of the decade at a relatively high price.

Being able to justify the price, even if you can afford it also plays into what you want to pay your current group. GM Doug Armstrong has openly stated that getting a deal done with Jaden Schwartz is his top priority.

He made $2.35 million in 2015-16. Depending on if the deal goes to arbitration or the Blues can work out a long term contract, Schwartz could bring in anywhere from $4-6 million per year.

So, the Blues would have to figure out projections in terms of affordability for ownership and sustainability in terms of revenue streams. Even though Hall or Nugent-Hopkins would not raise the payroll considerably by dealing Shattenkirk’s contract, you’d still be potentially paying five players $6 million or more for at least two more years and four players that much for at least the next four years.

That doesn’t include the likes of Backes or Brouwer, who could bump that number up. The team also has to consider Jay Bouwmeester, who is earning just under $6 million until 2019. If the Blues can afford it, it’s not a bad thing to have cost certainty with top line players. The only worry becomes trying to fill out roster spots when even fourth line players are likely to want raises.

The Detroit Red Wings have also become interested in Shatenkirk.

The names of Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar don’t have the marquee value of the Oilers’ players, but they would provide a bit more flexibility. As always, there is a little more downside too.

Nyquist would basically be a straight up salary swap. He’s making $4.75 million per year. Tatar would actually save the Blues money since he’s pulling in an average of $2.75 million. The downside would be years. Nyquist is actually sewed up for a good while, until 2019. Tatar’s contract expires in 2017, which though saving money, puts you in the same boat of having to either extend him or make a deal like in the same time frame you had with Shattenkirk.

The Blues also have to decide if any of those players work statistically. Nugent-Hopkins is still young enough to keep developing, but he’s coming off a rather down year. After scoring 50 points or more in every full season, he only had 34 last year. Granted, he was injured for a good while, but in his rookie season he had 52 points in only seven more games played.

Hall has also been a little bit up and down. He’s gone from the 40’s to 50’s to 80, down to 30’s and then up to 65 last season. He’s also a little injury prone as he has only played a full 82 games once. Both Hall and Nugent-Hopkins are both minus-players as well. While they would be around far past Ken Hitchcock, it might be tough for them to adapt in one season to his grittier style.

Tatar has been less flashy, but a bit more steady. He’s a plus-player, has played a full season in two straight seasons and 73 games in the season prior to that. He’s averaged 23 goals and 47 points the last three years.

Nyquist is hit or miss defensively, but very similar to Tatar in terms of production. He was +16 in his first real season, but -12 and -2 after that. He’s averaged 24 goals and 48 points the last three seasons.

In terms of the Blues style of play, the Red Wings players would be a better fit. They’re a bit tougher and more defensively polished. In terms of pure talent, clearly you can’t go wrong with any, but the Oilers guys are the bigger names.

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If forced to choose, Nugent-Hopkins might be more of the fit. The Blues need a top-line center who can produce points. If someone like Patrik Berglund was included in a potential Shattenkirk deal, then Hall, Nyquist or Tatar make more sense because it creates more room on the wing and gives you more freedom to sign a center via free-agency.

Right now, those are just rumors. Expect to hear more teams and possible swaps in the coming weeks. There is unlikely to be any concrete news until the draft, which is June 24-25, but it’s still fun to ponder the possibilities.