St. Louis Blues Monday Matchups: Jaden Schwartz

Most of our Monday Matchups for the St. Louis Blues pit a player against another. Today we’re taking a different approach and simply looking at the benefits and pitfalls of Jaden Schwartz’ potential contract.

The St. Louis Blues made it clear from the outset of the offseason that Jaden Schwartz was their top priority. Despite the fact that Schwartz is priority one and also a restricted free agent, word came out that his negotiations could drag well into the summer.

When Schwartz was originally a free agent two seasons ago, he had very little leverage. So, he signed the two year deal worth his average, which ended up being $2.3 million. As is the case in any sport, it had it’s good side and down side.

The deal was a steal in the initial year, when Schwartz put up 28 goals and 63 points. It ended up being a bit of a downer in 2015-16, when Schwartz only put up 22 points. Granted, that was due to injury and he was only able to play 33 games, so 22 points isn’t too bad for an average per game.

Now that Schwartz has more production under his belt, he wants more money as any free agent does. With a combination of value brought to the Blues and his managing company/agent, Schwartz might actually drive the price too high.

As with any negotiation, each side is going to do their best to get the most on their side. So, Schwartz is going to want to maximize his earning potential for money and length, while the Blues must attempt to not put themselvs into cap hell like other teams – looking at you Chicago.

The problem arises with a recent radio conversation. Blues beat writer, Jeremy Rutherford was on 101 ESPN and said Schwartz may actually be looking for something a lot closer to Vladimir Tarasenko money than many originally thought.

While this could just be typical posturing so that player and team can meet in the middle, it brings up several questions. Mainly, is he worth that type of money.

Negatives

For as talented as Schwartz is, he’s been a high 20 goal scorer in the two years when he really produced. Sure, he might have a big season or two, but you’re paying Tarasenko to get 40 goals.

Schwartz has skill and speed, but is he really likely to go from a career high of 28 to 40+? Seems a stretch.

If you look at comparable players from 2016, Jeff Skinner makes an average of $5.5 million and Taylor Hall makes an average of $6 million per year. Those guys have the potential to put up bigger numbers than Schwartz, but Schwartz hasn’t had the sample size they have. So, he could make the argument that there is more in him.

Even if there is, the likelihood that he’s going to emerge as a legitimate scoring threat on a consistent basis seems far fetched. Schwartz is more than capable of playing on the top line for the Blues, but Tarasenko money is for closers to paraphrase a line from Glengarry Glen Ross.

The argument against Schwartz getting that kind of money is the same as those against David Backes.

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Fans value his presence and his services, but sometimes we overvalue what we already have. Again, like with Backes, can you legitimately argue for paying someone $6.5-7 million when they’re not going to score at least in the mid-high 30’s?

The Blues already have some high dollar contracts and aren’t getting the kind of point value in return. If they gave high dollar contracts to Backes and Schwartz, you would be paying up to five players over $6 million and only expecting high 30’s or 40’s from the goal category from one player.

In a rare turn of events, many of our twitter followers seemed to be on the same page. Usually my opinions seem to be an outlier.

Positives

Schwartz is clearly a big part of this team. He scored a goal in his very first game coming back from injury.

He’s more than capable of being a top line player. From a goal production standpoint, he’s a little under where you want for that kind of money, but he’s very good in terms of point production. In terms of comparable producers, scoring in the high 50’s and 60’s, there are examples of people getting the kind of money Tarasenko is getting.

There are fans who are on his side for wanting such numbers as well.

Overview

In the end, this is likely just posturing. Schwartz is a good player and deserving of a spot on the Blues’ top line.

However, he is simply not worth $7 million. If that’s the kind of money he wants/gets then the NHL is likely headed toward another lockout sooner, rather than later.

This is a business and Schwartz is more than welcome to seek the maximum he is worth. Maybe he is worth that kind of money to the Blues. When compared to similar players around the league, however, he isn’t worth that money in the grand scheme of things.

$5.5-6 million seems a fair value and likely where they will meet. Personally, I’d rather give him extra years than more money. If there is any dip, it is usually easier to dump years on another team rather than dollars.

Next: What Moves Can the Blues Make to Move Up the Draft?

If Schwartz wants more than $6 million, it might be difficult to keep him. On the other hand, it seems almost implausible that the Blues would open 2016-17 without Schwartz, Backes or Troy Brouwer – Steen also, due to injury.

It’s a little bit scary to hear that he wants that much money and negotiations could linger into August. A deal will almost surely get done. It may take longer than many had expected, but usually a team’s priority isn’t allowed to walk out the door.