St. Louis Blues vs Nashville Predators: Five Keys To Victory
The St. Louis Blues and Nashville Predators will face each other for the first time ever in the playoffs. The two are evenly matched, so there are certain things that must be done to gain victory.
The St. Louis Blues and Nashville Predators might be two of the most evenly matched teams left in the playoffs. Sure, you can point to the potent offenses of Washington and Pittsburgh. New York and Ottawa will be an interesting series too.
However, almost since their inception, the Blues and Predators have been evenly positioned against each other. Once Nashville grew out of their expansion diapers and put on big boy pants, it really became a rivalry.
The fact that these two teams have never met in the playoffs is almost surprising. Some of that has to do with the current format, but plenty has to do with both teams failing to live up to expectation on certain occasions.
The Blues and the Preds have had solid teams in the past that always seem to find a way to not get it done. Now, both teams seem poised to make a run to glory after surprising first round dominance against the top two teams in the Western Conference.
With the ways these teams can cancel the other out, the series will boil down to pretty simple terms. Each one will have to win all or at least the majority of the following categories if they expect to win.
Dump And Chase
This sounds almost counter intuitive. Fans, and some pundits, generally hate the dump and chase game.
However, even the most skilled teams have to send the puck into the zone and track it down now and then. So, the team that can get this little nugget right is going to have the best chance to win.
Why is this one so important? Because of the goaltenders.
Both Jake Allen and Pekka Rinne are exceptional puck handlers. These two are some of the best since Martin Broduer, who was the man responsible for the league implementing the trapezoid to limit goaltender puck handling.
Rinne, especially, was instrumental in shutting down the Chicago Blackhawks’ offense and it was not just for shot stopping. For all their talents, the Blackhawks could not get through the neutral zone with possession.
So, they tried to dump it in and put pressure on. They could never get it cleanly around the net though and Rinne would thwart almost every chance.
Allen is a little slower out of his net, but no less adept at handling the puck. Due to this, Nashville will try more possession into the zone, which gives the Blues more chances to clog things up.
Whichever team can fling the puck around the boards with enough precision to escape the goaltender’s wrangling yet keep it in the zone, has the best chance of winning.
That team will have more offensive zone time. They will have more chances to score and tire out defenses that are predicated on speed and precision.
It will be tough. A rim around seems like an easy task, but with goaltenders trained to stop pucks even on the boards rim, it is not as simple as it sounds.
Goaltending
Speaking of goaltenders, the men themselves are going to be huge to this series. What will be interesting to see is just how huge.
Both guys were top three stars for their teams in their first round wins. You could make a case that they were the star of their respective series.
However, this topic has the feeling of one of those football games that is predicted to be a shootout by everyone. The score usually ends up 13-9 in a defensive struggle.
That is not to say these guys won’t play well. Allen and Rinne are too good to play poorly at this stage. Yet, they played so well in the first round that you almost wonder if they can live up to their own lofty standards.
Until Game 5 messed things up a bit, Allen had a goals against under 1.00. Even now, he has a 1.47 GAA and a save percentage of .956 in the playoffs.
Rinne, though under much less pressure, is even better statistically. He’s currently at 0.70 GAA and .976 save percentage.
The question for these guys is actually how much the layoff hurts them. Goalies are not like scorers or hitters in baseball. A layoff is not going to turn them ice cold.
It can affect timing and hotness though. A goaltender in stride, especially in Allen’s case, is used to seeing game action shots and lots of them. Practice can only do so much to simulate that.
Both goaltenders were on top of their games coming out of the first round. Rinne has to shrug off the rust a little more than Allen does as Nashville completed their sweep two days before the Blues won.
As mentioned, don’t expect either of these guys to play poorly. Shaking off the rust first will be key though.
Similarly to the Minnesota series for the Blues, scoring first is probably going to be key with both goaltenders coming into the series in form.
Neutral Zone
Springboarding off another topic from the original one is the neutral zone play. Both teams want to do different things offensively, but getting space or keeping it from your opponent in the neutral zone is going to be paramount.
The Nashville Predators are not a dump and chase team if they can prevent it. They want to utilize their speed, gain the blue line with possession and set things up from there.
A lot of that has to do with their defenders being the ones to actually carry it in. St. Louis cannot allow that.
It made for plenty of heart wrenching games, but the Blues did an excellent job of clogging up the neutral zone against Minnesota. Neutral fans will say it made for some boring bits of play, but that’s how you stop a high-powered offense.
St. Louis will have to do that again. Though they finished in the final playoff spot, only four teams in the Western Conference finished with more goals than Nashville.
Nashville likes to gain speed through the neutral zone and take it in with possession, often with their speedy defenders. The Predators had three of their top ten scorers as defenseman and that includes a down year (40 pts) for PK Subban.
Conversely, the Predators are going to want to do much of the same that they did against Chicago. Stand up at the blue line, force dump-ins and rely on Rinne to stop things as they go around.
The Blues are not as much a possession team entering the zone as any of us would like, so they are going to have to find ways to break down the pressure.
That is why the neutral zone is so important. The team that imposes their game plan the best on the middle third is the one that is going to have the most success.
Take away time and space and force it into a short rink game. Both teams’ goaltenders are good enough to stop that kind of offense, so the fewer breakouts the better. Clogging up the middle sounds so boring, but it will be necessary to win again.
Star Power
While none of them are recognized as much as they should be by the national media (likely due to being in the MidWest), they both have some star power. Vladimir Tarasenko, Filip Forsberg, Paul Stastny and Victor Arvidsson are just a few of the guys capable of taking over a series.
On top of that, neither team relies solely on their big guns. Nashville got more from their names than the Blues did, at least statistically, but both teams run three to four lines.
Still, you get the feeling that the guys with the most skill are going to have to find ways to be the man in this series.
Vladimir Tarasenko had a very good series against Minnesota. He was denied by posts, good saves and good defending. Still, you get the feeling one goal will not suffice from him if the Blues are to win.
Conversely, the Blues are better defensively than they get credit for. Nashville will need their top guys to find new ways to score against a team more concerned with stopping them than Chicago was.
It sounds overly simple to say the stars have to shine. Most people assume they will or won’t and the supplemental players need to step it up.
These teams are too evenly matched for that. The third and fourth lines are just about equal. So, it is up to the leaders and skill guys to find ways to make those special plays.
Pure Will Power
This one again seems simple, but it is the hardest to summon. No matter how finely trained we are, human nature is to never do things exactly as they were before. Try as we might, something always changes.
With both teams doing similar things well or doing something well that negates what the other does, it will all come down to who wants it more. That saying is so cliche, because everyone wants to win. It might be better to say the team that is willing to go the extra step to get what they want will win.
The Blues under Ken Hitchcock were a great example of that. The team wanted to win. They were told how to win. Too many nights, they did not have that will to go the extra mile though and that led to their downfall.
The Blues have played enough tough playoff games over the past couple years to know what they need to do. Knowing and doing are different though.
Lessons can be learned but not implemented. That’s why winning is so tough.
It is the team that can take everything they have done wrong, fix those issues and continue to do the things they did right that has the best chance. There are questions for both regarding this.
Will Nashville have any let down after appearing to take down the top seed so easily? Might St. Louis have used up too much energy defending for their lives in three of the five games?
Time will tell for all of that, but the team that can push through all the muck is going to be harder than hell to beat.
St. Louis clogs up the middle and keeps chances to the side. Can Nashville grind their way through that and put dangerous chances on net?
The Predators are a very fast team and get the puck out of their own zone quickly to spring attacks. Can the Blues slow them down and keep possession in the offensive zone enough? They cannot be one-and-done in terms of offensive threats in this series.
Next: See How Well Our 5 Reasons Against Minnesota Stacked Up
It’s up to the players to find that little bit extra within themselves. They are going to find themselves in situations that seem like they cannot be overcome. Each one must find a way.
The team that does that more often than not will find themselves with four wins at the end of this series.