The St. Louis Blues are poised for a big offseason in terms of moves to improve the team. However, they have to look to their own first and a big defender will be key to what they can spend elsewhere.
Free agency is always a tricky bit of water to tread. The market fluctuates for all teams and all players and the St. Louis Blues are no different.
Before the Blues can really dive into the deep end of either the trade or free agent waters, they have to lock up their own players. First among those names that will be potentially a free agent this summer is Joel Edmundson.
Edmundson is definitely a name that St. Louis does not want to slip away. The big question is how much he will cost, though.
There are going to be many factors that determine the price tag for Edmundson. One will be the length of the contract. Another will be the structure of it. The last factor could be who decides the contract.
We’ll start with that last point. What is meant by who decides the contract is basically bringing up the idea of arbitration.
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Personally, I feel it is rarely beneficial to allow a contract to go into arbitration. I can definitely save you some dollars if you are strapped for cash. It can also damage relationships.
We can go on and on about guys being professionals, but they are human. If you hear the things said about you in an arbitration hearing, it can be difficult to deal with because your employer is essentially arguing why you are not valuable. Not everyone deals with that well.
If St. Louis and Edmundson are interested in a deal, hopefully they can avoid the judge’s ruling. Arbitration is usually a last resort.
RFA vs UFA
Another factor in Edmundson’s price will be the structure of the contract, which plays into the length. If St. Louis extends Edmudson a qualifying offer, he could cost as little as $1.2 million according to CapFriendly. That seems unlikely, but perhaps he would be willing to take a small offer at first for a big payday sooner in his career.
The other option regarding structure is a bridge-contract. Whether it would be a one or two-year deal, Edmundson might bet on himself and just take a small deal now so that he is eligible for unrestricted free agency later.
This would be beneficial to the Blues in the short term. You’d only have to give Edmundson a small raise. This would definitely help out this offseason as the team looks to make a big splash or two.
However, you run the risk of it costing you down the road. Edmundson could cost more in a season or two than he does right now. So, you’d either be paying more later or potentially losing the player later.
The long term deal
The long term deal is the most beneficial to both parties. The player gets security and the team has the knowledge of what they’re working around for the future.
You can also save money if you are smart about the deal. Just look at Vladimir Tarasenko. He’s only earning a little more than $7 per season and averages over 30 goals per season. There are other players in the league getting just as much for an average of 10 goals fewer. The Blues locked him up at the right time.
St. Louis need look no further than Nashville for a comparable. When they were looking for new contracts at similar stages in their careers, Mattias Ekholm was in the same boat as Edmundson.
He was scoring in the teens for points, making a name for himself within the market and only making just north of $1 million per season. Nashville rewarded him with a six-year deal worth an average value of $3.75 million. Another comparable is Jake Muzzin, who got a raise up to $4 million from $1 million
Jumping from $1.2 million to almost four is a bit high for us cheapo fans, but that’s about what it will cost – either now or potentially more later. It might be smart for the Blues to buy-in now before it costs more later.
Fitting in the cap
Overall, something in the neighborhood of $3.5 would fit right in with the Blues current structure. Edmundson is not as good as Colton Parayko right now and Parayko is getting $5.5 a season.
Most would rank Edmundson as the third best defender on the Blues right now. Getting paid the fourth most is fair.
Also, despite the big jump from his current contract, mid-threes would not break the bank. The Blues are currently listed with around $12 million in cap space. That might increase if the salary cap ceiling gets bumped up as rumored.
If it stays the same, things get tight with only $9 million to spend. If it gets increased, you could have as much as $17 million to spend, depending on how high the cap actually goes.
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Blues fans don’t want to get burned. Some fans are already souring on Parayko and he has plenty of years left on his deal. Edmundson is just coming into his own though. He had a great run in the World Championships, showing some offensive flair.
If he can stay healthy and play a full season, he would be worth a four or five year contract with a good raise. Signing him would limit needs too. The Blues have to improve up front. The less worry about the blue line you have, the more you can focus on that.