St. Louis Blues: Pros/Cons Of An Ilya Kovalchuk Signing

The St. Louis Blues are reportedly involved with plenty of names, either in the trade market or free agency. While it is good to leave no stone unturned, some stones are better left alone.

The St. Louis Blues know they have improvements to make and holes to fill if they want to return to contender status for 2018-19. Doug Armstrong has reportedly had any perceived constraints taken off of him this summer.

However, as much as fans complain about Armstrong’s constant need to preserve the future, there are some players that might be a little too much in the present to be worth it. Mainly, Ilya Kovalchuk is the person that fits that mold.

There are minor rumblings that the Blues might be in pursuit of the winger. St. Louis is reportedly thought of as a second-tier option, but an option nevertheless.

Kovalchuk is a player that brings some very interesting upside to him. His talents are very straight forward and would be quite useful on a Blues team that struggles offensively at times.

However, there are definite drawbacks to a Kovalchuk signing. There are question marks regarding age, length of term and the translation of production from league to league.

So, let’s dive into the good and the bad of this possibility.

Pros

1.) Scoring

While the Blues main concern this offseason has widely been reported in the center position, you need scoring regardless. If you can find someone that will supplement Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn and Jaden Schwartz with consistent goals, that is hard to pass up.

The main issue with the Blues, among several others, is they become easy to defend. When you don’t have depth across your lines or up and down your roster, defenses focus on certain guys.

If those guys cannot overcome the pressure, the offense sputters and your offense goes cold. We’ve seen that happen far too often, especially in 2017-18.

Kovalchuk could provide that outlet. If nothing else, he would open up the avenues for other guys for the first few months. Even if he did not get off to a hot start, teams would focus on him just for his possibility of scoring.

On top of that, he is just a pure scorer. Prior to leaving the NHL, he was scoring anywhere from 30-50 goals a season. Injuries and a general malaise forced a bad year for him in 2012-13, but the talent is still in there.

Kovalchuk has actually gotten better with age in Russia. After a poor season or two off the bat, he scored 63 goals and 141 points over the last two KHL seasons (113 games total)

We have seen guys like Jaromir Jagr continue to put pucks in the net at an advanced age, if given the right scenarios.

2.) Power Play

Let’s face it – the Blues power play was just awful in 2017-18. They went from an average-to-good power play under Ken Hitchcock (usually in the top 10 in the NHL) to last in the league. Anything would have to be an improvement on that.

Kovalchuk is not a special teams god, but he can score and he can draw attention. That is something the Blues power play sorely lacks.

Kovalchuk was rarely top of the league in PP scoring, but he was solid. In the NHL, he was averaging around 13 power play goals per season, which would have led the Blues last season. He even had 27 one year, but there is no reason to ever expect that many.

If he could be a specialist, that would be more than enough for St. Louis. Contribute another 5-10 power play goals to an anemic offense and the Blues probably make the postseason last year.

In the KHL, he did average 1.10 power play goals per game. Even if you cut that in half or by 75%, that would be more than a sufficient number to help the Blues out.

Cons

1.) Age

The old saying goes that Father Time is undefeated. You can take pills, get massages, train until you are blue in the face, eat avocado ice cream or do yoga. Eventually, your body defies you and you simply cannot perform up to a certain level any more.

2.) Production Questions

As I said, if he could give you KHL numbers over 60 games, then that would be fine. However, even though it is likely the second best professional league in the world, it’s impossible to tell how KHL production translates to the NHL.

For example, Vladimir Sobotka scored 18 goals and 34 points in 44 games in one KHL season. His 11 goals in 81 games for the Blues last season were a career high.

So, can you expect Kovalchuk to actually score anything close to 30 goals again? Impossible to tell and expensive to try.

Beyond just the translation, there was little consistency to Kovalchuk’s numbers. While his last two seasons were amazing, his first couple years in the KHL were all over the place.

In 2012-13, albeit in a season that had already begun, he had 18 goals and 42 points. The following year it was 16 goals and 40 points. 2014-15 saw a rise to 25 goals and 55 points, but the following year dropped down to 16 goals and 49 points before leaping back up these past two seasons.

The number of games fluctuated each year, making you wonder even more about his durability in a more physical league. It also makes you wonder which numbers are the ones you could predict NHL scoring off of. Even if you expect a small dip in transition, is it a dip from 16 goals or 31 goals?

3.) Price And Term

As with any free agent, the asking price is a gigantic factor in whether you bring someone in. The price for Kovalchuk is all over the board.

Jeff Gordon’s story, linked in the opening, suggests he is looking for three years and around $18 million. Do the math and that averages out to around $6 million per season.

For an elite goal scorer, $6 million is a fair price. But combine the age with the production question, in addition to the fact he’d be 39 by the time the contract ended and $5-6 million is a big ask.

Now, some online chats suggested the pay might come down as low as $3 million. That is much more palatable for a try at a solid goal scorer, but anything more than a one or two-year deal seems scary.

For all we know, Kovalchuk might be one of those guys that can play until he is 40. If he plays at the same level as his Russia days, then it would be fine. It’s a large risk when it is more likely he will suddenly drop off the production cliff, either due to age or injury, though.

Final Thought

If the Blues announce on July 1 they’ve come to terms with Kovalchuk, I will not throw a fit. I will attempt to see the positive and hope he brings an added element to this team that helps them.

The Blues need talent, pure and simple. If you can acquire it and it will help you win, by all means do so.

That said, I would not personally do this deal. The Blues will have cap space, but I’d rather spend it on younger players. Let the teams like L.A., San Jose or the New York teams take the risk.

It would stink to miss out on a goal scorer that could have been had for over half off his previous NHL contract. However, I just don’t see him being built for the NHL any more.

Next: Blues Pursuit Of Mike Hoffman Should Probably End Now

Unless he’s in the perfect scenario, which I don’t think the Blues are, I see his goals numbers being cut in half. 8-15 goals is not enough to get out of $5 million and the Blues already have guys doing those numbers.

We will see what happens. I will stay consistent with last summer, however, and pass on this possibility.

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