Bleedin' Blue
Fansided

St. Louis Blues: Are Blues Playoff Chances Cooked Like A Thanksgiving Turkey?

By Dave Stobbe

ST. LOUIS, MO. - MAY 05: Blues players celebrate a goal in the third period during game five of the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Nashville Predators and the St. Louis Blues, May 05, 2017, at Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO. St. Louis won, 2-1. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ST. LOUIS, MO. - MAY 05: Blues players celebrate a goal in the third period during game five of the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Nashville Predators and the St. Louis Blues, May 05, 2017, at Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO. St. Louis won, 2-1. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

The St. Louis Blues have a slim chance to make the NHL Playoffs according to the statistical probabilities of past seasons, at least since the 2005-2006 season.

The bad news is that 77% of the teams in a playoff position at American Thanksgiving, or as we in St. Louis call it Thanksgiving make the playoffs. That seems like pretty tall odds for a team that is dead last in the central division and tied for second to last in the Western Conference.

The St. Louis Blues do have a couple of advantages working in their favor to buck this trend. First and foremost is that they have played fewer games than any other team in the conference and division. Second is how close both the division and the wild card races are at this point.

It is incredible that the Blues have played, except in the case of the Canucks, five fewer games, and in general three games less than the rest of the conference. These three games give them potentially up to a six-point advantage on the rest of the teams. Equivalent to the difference that separates them from the wild card right now.

More from Editorials

In their division, the Blues have played anywhere between one and three fewer games less than the rest of the division. Now they are six points out of a playoff spot in the division; those three games loom large.

While the Blues look to be primed to be the exception rather than the norm of the Thanksgiving rule, it will require the continued good play. It also helps that the Blackhawks have seemingly thrown in the towel with the firing of Joel Quenneville.

The bad news in the prospect of being the exception and not the rule is the sheer number of teams between the Blues and a playoff spot. The Blues have to leapfrog four teams in the division to make the playoffs.  In the conference, it is five teams between the Blues and a wildcard spot.

While it does not appear to be a large number of teams when you look at numerically, it’s getting the teams ahead of you to cooperate. The problem comes in to play you figure that Blues not only have to play winning hockey the rest of the way. They also have to play better than those teams in front of them as well.

Not that this impossible, it is just that the laws of probabilities are against them. Sure the Blues can go on a streak while a couple of teams slide, but it is unlikely that all the teams ahead of them will.

Now hopefully the coach of the Blues (Mike Yeo, Joel Quenneville, or coach to be named later) can use this as a motivational tool for the team. Challenge the team to be only the 5th team to make the NHL Playoffs since the 2005-2006 season.

Home/Editorials