The St. Louis Blues are in an awkward position as we close in on the midway point of 2018-19. They seem to be a failed experiment, but that does not mean they have to start from scratch.
The English language is such an interesting mishmash of intent vs. perception in how it is used. St. Louis Blues fans, and really all people, can use a certain word or phrase and might have completely different intentions behind it.
That said, it is safe to say that most Blues fans ranting about wanting the team blown up are not leaving much to read between the lines. They want to start over and rebuild this team.
There is no way to paint with broad strokes and say these are all younger fans that do not remember the dismantling of the early 2000’s team and the mess that followed. There are likely just fans that are tired of the status quo and think a rebuild is the way to start anew. Nonsense.
Speaking of the English language, there is an old phrase that says you should not throw the baby out with the bathwater. It basically means we should not be hasty in trying to get rid of something we do not want.
Even if the 2018-19 Blues miss the playoffs for the second year in a row, you do not want a total rebuild. Anyone who says they do does not have a real clue at what that might look like.
The focus of successful rebuilds is that of the recent incarnations of the Chicago Blackhawks and Pittsburgh Penguins. They built dynasties the likes of which have not been seen since the Edmonton Oilers or New York Islanders of the 1980’s.
There is a lot of pain to go through to even attempt that. The Blackhawks were garbage for a lot of years before they rebounded to champions. From 1998 to 2008, Chicago missed the playoffs nine of ten seasons. We all want a Stanley Cup, but I am not willing to go through a decade of mediocrity in the hopes that the Blues land their golden boy, at last, and have a GM that can build around that.
That is a crapshoot and has no guarantee of working. Also, while everyone wants to emulate those teams, they forget to look at all the failures.
The Edmonton Oilers had the top pick in the draft in several consecutive years. Despite the constant promise they were getting there, they missed the playoffs 10 consecutive seasons and have only been there twice in 15 seasons.
Winnipeg has been building something for a long time. They are just now getting those pieces to coalesce and form a contender.
Buffalo has had some high draft picks too. They have been about as inconsistent as any franchise in the league and when they land a big name, the player usually wants out by the time the team is getting anywhere. Don’t think for a second that St. Louis might not be that same kind of market if you try to start completely over.
There is no guarantee of anything with changing of guards either. New Jersey has never been able to replicate their greatness after their championship runs.
Toronto has been on the cusp for years and they just keep hitting the reset button.
It just is not worth it. Yes, you have a few years of being able to draft high, but you have no guarantee that will lead you any further than you have already achieved. In fact, since 2000, only four of all the first overall draft picks have won Stanley Cups and those were Crosby, Ovechkin, Fleury and Kane.
On top of all that, fans have no true concept of when you really need a rebuild. We are all far too hot tempered and emotionally invested to make those kinds of calls.
Tons and tons of Blues fans, including myself, were ready to start over and clean house following another first round exit in 2015. Gut the locker room and get some guys in there that wanted to get the job done (sounds familiar, hmm?).
All the Blues really did was make a bold move to trade away TJ Oshie and acquire veteran forward Troy Brouwer. While the issues behind the scenes seem a little deeper now than they did then, there is no reason a similar fix might not be all this team needs.
Right now, the Blues have Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan O’Reilly and Colton Parayko locked up to team friendly deals through 2021-22 (add one more year in the case of the two forwards).
You have Brayden Schenn under contract through 2019-20. There have been rumblings of putting him on the offer table, but I don’t think that would be smart unless he is part of the locker room problem. Schenn just had a 28 goal and 70 point season in 2017-18. You can make the argument that you should sell high, but I feel he has proven himself on the ice in production and providing an example.
What this team really has to decide is whether the current lack of production from players like your captain, a former potential candidate for the Norris Trophy, is a blip or something that will continue. Even then, that doesn’t mean you automatically trade away someone like Tarasenko, a consistent scorer with inconsistency within a season, or Petro just for the sake of it. You cannot put your trust in unproven rookies alone.
Then there are several contracts potentially coming off the books after this season too. St. Louis has nine players that are currently on their NHL roster or IR, set to be a free agent of some sort. If you think any of those players are part of the current problem, you just let them walk and use the money spent on them elsewhere.
Of course, that would potentially mean sticking out the 2018-19 season as is. That does not sit well with plenty of people who don’t want to let the season be called a wash before it’s even half over. At this point, however, there are only so many moves to make within a season. Many might not have the impact you would like.
We circle back to an idea that has been floating around for awhile that the locker room problem might be either Alex Pietrangelo or Alexander Steen. Even if not, they might prove to be your only valuable trade assets if you want to keep a solid core without starting over.
We all get it. We want the best for this team and are starting to think they don’t have those top end superstars that can carry them to the promised land.
Even so, you just can’t start from scratch. A true rebuilding process is too long, arduous and might lead this franchise right back to where it is now – just look how the core of those late 2000’s teams turned out.
All this team needs is a little retooling. A piece here and there and the right person or persons removed and this team can rebound back to where it was. The bad thing is the Central Division continues to be the toughest division in hockey, but there is the right talent to come back and contend if they can find the right mixture in this recipe. There is no need to go back to the store and start over from scratch.
So, the next time you get your panties in a bunch and start yelling to blow it up, think about what you’re actually asking for. Tweaks can still save this team. True rebuilds guarantee nothing.