The St. Louis Blues will go into their 2019-20 season with almost the exact lineup from the season before. That does not mean we can expect or rely on the same numbers.
When the St. Louis Blues opened the 2018-19 season, they knew they had talent and knew they had a shot at going somewhere. They did not know how high they would get by the end of the season.
Despite that talent, just about everyone not named Ryan O’Reilly struggled out of the gate. St. Louis cannot afford that kind of start to 2019-20.
The Blues will go into this upcoming season truly looking to defend their Stanley Cup championship. Many teams say that, but only hold it true as a franchise name as there is a decent amount of turnover. The Blues will likely have everyone back except one or two names. The scary thing is, as of writing this, we are Perron days away from opening night – i.e. 57 days away, if you can believe it.
Returning all your players does not mean anyone can rest on their laurels, especially David Perron. If anything, the Blues will need more out of Perron this coming season than they have asked of him before.
Perron was right about his average in a Blues sweater in 2018-19. 46 points was just four shy of his best in St. Louis, but fell short of the point totals he has hit in Edmonton and Vegas.
When Perron started 2018-19, he was hot and cold. He scored a hat trick just three nights into the season and had 10 points in the first 10 games.
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However, he went cold for extremely long stretches. He only had one assist in the second 10 games.
Much of the season went like that. Goals would come in bunches and then he would go silent for what seemed like months.
If the Blues are to defend their title, and with almost everyone in the division getting stronger in the offseason, St. Louis will need more consistency from Perron. It would be nice for him to get point totals he has achieved elsewhere, but one step at a time.
Really, even if you spread Perron’s 46 points out a little more evenly, it would help. Instead of getting hat tricks in blowout games, if he just scored one goal every third game or so, it increases the team’s chances of winning that night by a lot.
The Blues could also benefit from Perron distributing a little more. He has proven he can do it, too.
In his best year in St. Louis, Perron had 35 assists. His career year, in Vegas, Perron had 60 points because he dished on 50 goals for his teammates.
The Blues shouldn’t even expect those kinds of numbers. But something close to, or above, 30 assists would really help out the team.
Granted, those were different circumstances. Perron was either playing higher up the lineup or in higher leverage situations, i.e. more power plays, but he can still generate that kind of offense if/when he puts in the work.
The thing that might hold Perron back is the Blues own philosophy. Craig Berube gave this team a clear identity when they returned to being that hard to play against, defensive oriented team.
Nobody will accuse the Blues of being boring like the 1990’s trap-style New Jersey Devils. Still, they try to play a 200-foot game as much as possible and Perron was buying into that. Anytime you spend more time defending, you will have less energy for the offensive zone. It is simple energy expenditure and energy within the body is finite.
That said, we are not asking Perron to be a star for this team or to carry the load. All the team needs from him is just a little bit more than 2018-19.
It is a fine line for Perron as he proved in the playoffs. Despite seven goals and 16 points, the forward was only a plus-4, meaning he was on the ice for at least 12 goals against.
Nevertheless, I think Perron can still be more consistent. I think the Blues will not have an early season like they did in 2018-19, thus everyone around Perron will be able to help him better and vice versa.
Players don’t typically go up in points in their 30’s, but Perron almost had 50 points and dealt with injuries. If he stays healthy, and that’s always an if for any player, I think he’ll get to 50.
I see 27 goals and 30 assists for 57 points. That would set a new point total for Perron in a Blues uniform and be just the bump the team would need.
It would be nice for him to get 30 and 30, but that is not an absolute must the way it might be for some of the top line guys. 27, 30 and 57 would be just the bump up from his 2018-19 numbers to give the team a boost and also allow Perron to keep focused on whatever he can provide defensively as well.
If nothing else, score 40-plus points and stay out of the box and you’ll make a lot of fans happy. Offensive zone penalties have been a plague on his career.
I see it being a decent year for Perron though. He’s still got some wheels, the hands are still sick, hasn’t shown signs of slowing yet and is still a capable second line forward, even if he should be on the third line a little more often. One last bump up in numbers before the inevitable decline of age is nothing unreasonable to expect.