St. Louis Blues: 100 Points Not Off The Table For Tarasenko

St. Louis Blues forward Vladimir Tarasenko is off to the hottest start on the team, but can he turn his hot start into a 100-point season in 2019-20? After a slow start in the goal column, Tarasenko has hit his stride with 10 points (3 G, 7 A) in nine games so far this season.

St. Louis Blues fans have long awaited Vladimir Tarasenko to be the next Brett Hull, acting as a perennial Hart Trophy contender while collecting 50 goals and nearly 100 points per season. If you are reading this article, you, like me, are one of the fans guilty of taking the talented Russian for granted. And like me, you should probably realize that he plays in a different era of hockey and will never have the supporting cast as the legendary Brett Hull.

All of this to say: maybe we should lower our expectations a little bit for our star winger. I know I am about to make a case for scoring in triple digits for the first time, but it seems as if we have a gloomy outlook on his young career. It just seems a little bit unfair to put him in Hull’s shadow.

Anyways, let’s take the torrid start and run with it for a little bit. The only other time he has ever come close to this current point pace was in 2014-15 when he put up 73 points in 77 games. There have been three seasons in which he has scored more than 70 points and two more that he scored over 60 points, but this could finally be the year that he makes the leap to triple digits.

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The biggest difference this year is that he is dishing out assists at a higher rate than in past seasons. The whole league knows that he can bury the puck, but the biggest factor between Tarasenko and 100 points is his ability to collect assists.

In 2018-19, six players scored over 100 points. All six of these players had more than 50 assists. Five of them had more than 60.

Tarasenko’s average goal total seems to be near the mark, but his highest season assist total is 36 assists. I imagine a 100-point season for Tarasenko would probably look like 40 goals and 60 assists. This would mean a four-goal increase and a 24-assist increase in his current career highs. Seems kind of farfetched, right?

On the bright side, 91’s linemates are also finding a ton of success. Brayden Schenn is nipping at his heels with nine points on the year and an impressive six goals. Jaden Schwartz has a respectable seven points in nine games.

The case for Tarasenko reaching this lofty milestone will rest entirely on the play of Schenn and Schwartz. This is their third season together, and I would imagine that they continue to improve the more they play together. Familiarity can very well lead to more points for all three of these players and could propel Vlad to a career-high in assists.

In Schenn’s first season with St. Louis, he posted a career-high 70 points (28 G, 42 A), and last season he put up 54 points (17 G, 37 A). Schwartz’s career-high in points is 63, set as a 22-year-old in 2014-15. I do not doubt that this line will continue to progress into one of the best lines in the NHL while propelling Tarasenko to a higher number of assists.

A career-high in assists would help bridge the massive gap between 36 and the 50-60 needed for 100 points. The talent on his line could even propel him to 50 goals, lowering his expected output in assists. With 50 goals, we are only talking about a 14-assist increase in his career-high, making this a whole lot more realistic.

Overall, the conditions are set for Tarasenko to put up 100 points this season, despite the daunting 30-point gap. It may not be very likely, but he is a gifted goal scorer with familiar and talented linemates. Even if he does not reach 100, the door is wide open for Vlad to post a career-high in every category in 2019-20.