The St. Louis Blues 12-3-5 returned home from a brief trip to Columbus where they lost another game in overtime to meet the 9-9-2 Anaheim Ducks.
The St. Louis Blues not having lost in regulation in their previous nine look to keep the point streak going and get back to collecting two points where they’ve only amassed two points in their previous two dropping both in overtime.
The Blues have been the beneficiaries of some bounces throughout the point streak. Bounces that have up to this point masked the deficiencies in the team’s overall 5 on 5 play. I noted in a previous report card that thankfully the Blues have been able to capitalize on those bounces and through solid special teams have been winning games that they probably should’ve lost.
5 on 5 play was this team’s bread and butter on their run to the championship last season. This year, however, The St. Louis Blues are playing 5 on 5 the way they did in the first half of last season.
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That poor play would continue at home against the Ducks and the bounces, well, they stopped going the Blues way and the poor 5 on 5 play was laid bare for all to see.
There were no bounces going the Blues way this game and the power play failed to mask the 5 on 5 deficiencies. Turnovers were turned to goals for the Ducks and the home team failed to turn the tide.
After one of the worst starts leading to dead last on Jan 3rd of last year, the Blues finished 10th in the NHL in Corsi For % at 51.22%. In 2019-20 the Blues Corsi For % is 50.06%. That’s a 1.16% drop off from last season and the Blues still have a winning record.
What’s even more telling about the poor 5 on 5 play is the high danger chance for %. At the end of the regular season last year the Blues were generating high danger chances at a 52.72% rate. In 2019-20 it’s drastically different. It’s at an abysmal 42.53%. That’s over a 10% drop off from last season.
Normally I do a report card after each game, but to save from repeating myself over and over I decided to just say that the grades for nearly every facet of the game is an F. Aside from Jordan Binnington, who also wasn’t in A grade form, but some of that was due to the poor play of the team in front of him.
I wanted to spend some time touching on the High Danger Chances For %. The Blues are controlling the puck for half the game. Not dominating in puck control as we’ve seen the second half of last season.
Remember that the first half of last season was so bad that the fact the Blues did what they did in the second half makes their Corsi For % in the end so dominant. They’re Corsi For prior to the magic run last season was sub 50%.
Much like their High Danger Chances For % is today. What this is telling us is that 5 on 5 we are not dominating the puck control game as we keep hearing the players talk about. When we do, we are just holding the puck on the outside and taking shots from low percentage scoring areas.
Something we were doing a lot less of through the second half of last season. Last season we were turning the puck control game into scoring chances from high percentage places. you can review all this information for yourself on Natural Stat Trick here.
On this site, you will also see that the Blues are generating less scoring chances for than they are giving up. It’s not a recipe for success and also suggests that although this team says they don’t want to get into track meets with the opposition they are doing just that and losing.
5 on 5 play was and must be going forward the focus of this Blues team. What is causing this drastic fall-off is up to interpretation and more than likely is a multi-faceted issue.
Over Confidence? Resting on their laurels of last season? Lack of cohesion on the defensive end? Missing key players and not just the obvious ones on Alex Steen and Vladimir Tarasenko, but a puck control guy like Pat Maroon.
All very possible. I mentioned that eventually the power play would cool off and we would see that the 5 on 5 play would not be good enough if the Blues didn’t change their tune and start playing better shut down hockey.
Binnington has been nearly as good after a “slow” start in stopping the high danger chances against, but over the course of an entire season and with the number the Blues are currently surrendering it can’t hold up for long.
The team in post-game interviews keeps saying we have to find ways to get to the front of the net. We have to start burying the puck. Well, according to the analytics you won’t, if you don’t start buckling down defensively and stop turning the puck over.
The team has called up Klim Kostin and I believe that he has what it takes to fill that big body, puck controlling void that was left when Doug Armstrong allowed Maroon to walk.
I can’t support that claim too much with analytics as there isn’t much on prospects, but from what the coaches in the AHL are saying it sounds like Kostin is figuring out the North American game and has developed a brand of hockey for himself that will carry over well into the NHL.
With some time and experience, I think he does what the Big Rig started doing for the Blues last season in the second half and in the playoffs. It may not result in 20+ goals this season, but it could result in 20 less high danger scoring chances against and that to me for this team is just like scoring 20 goals for.
The bottom line is this team needs to get back to the defensively responsible and puck controlling style they had last season. Don’t get me wrong I am ecstatic to be sitting at 12-4-5 a quarter of the way through the season. It’s way better than where we sat last year.
I’d be miserable if the Blues don’t start correcting what we have been seeing even during the point streak that came to an end against the .500 Ducks. I begged for better special teams. Particularly the power play, but I’ll take a mediocre power play and top-notch 5 on 5 play any day of the year.
You will lose more games playing sub-par 5 on 5 than you will ever win having the best power play in the league. The Blues didn’t need the NHL’s best power play to win the Championship last season and having one in the top five this season with the second to worst High Danger Scoring Chances For % in the league won’t win you much of anything. Not against playoff-caliber teams.
Craig Berube where are you at man!? I call you the Blues Whisperer, but I think it’s time to start yelling and throwing some chairs!
Drop the puck!