It’s no secret that the St. Louis Blues are on fire to start the season, currently pacing the Central Division through 23 games. While the defending Stanley Cup champions and their fancy retro jerseys might pass the eye test, I thought it might be fun to dig a little bit deeper into some of the advanced analytics that have contributed to their early success.
The only team that has more points than the St. Louis Blues through a quarter of the 2019-20 season are the Washington Capitals (36 points). Their Strength of Schedule (SOS) is ranked 19th out of the 31 teams and they lead their division by five points heading into November 22.
Needless to say, this is the start to the season that the fans had hoped for (besides going to overtime most nights). Let’s look at the players that have been a key to the team’s good start.
David Perron
David Perron has been essential to the Blues’ early success, pacing the team in points with 21 (10 G, 11 A) while burying FIVE game winners already. His plus/minus sits at a mediocre plus-1, but his shooting percentage is sky-high at 17.9%. He also averages 18:15 time on ice (TOI) per night.
The number that sticks out the most to me is his Point Shares (how many points an individual player has contributed to the standings). Perron is fourth on the team in point shares with 2.4 total and 1.9 Offensive Point Shares. St. Louis would not be where they are in the standings without this veteran winger.
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Brayden Schenn
Brayden Schenn currently sits right behind Perron with 20 points (11 G, 9 A) on the season and has impressed early on with his ability to finish a play. The Saskatoon native has accumulated 2.5 Point Shares and centers the “Sasky” first line that has impressed over the last few games.
Schenn’s Corsi For Percentage is excellent at 52.5 percent and his linemate, Jaden Schwartz, is even higher at 53.4 percent. This first line has been excellent at maintaining possession of the puck and it has a lot to do with this man’s offensive output.
The only knock against Schenn is the sub-par faceoff performances. Currently, his Faceoff Win Percentage sits at 48 %. It could be worse, but most people expect a better faceoff performance out of a first-line center.
Jay Bouwmeester
Everyone knows that Jay Bouwmeester is no offensive forward, but his offensive output is troubling. He is last on the team with -0.3 Offensive Point Shares. Simply put, him being on the ice deducts from the team’s offense.
This brings up the question: Is pairing Justin Faulk with Jay Bouwmeester hurting Faulk’s offensive output? Faulk has only collected six points on six assists so far and nobody has an answer for his slow start. It is not all Bouwmeester’s fault, but it is something that the Blues should consider.
On the bright side, he has the most Defensive Point Shares on the team with 1.5. The crazy thing is, he has only laid 11 hits on the season. Metrically, the best defensive player so far on the Blues does not throw his weight around. Pull from that what you’d like.
Vince Dunn
Now it’s time to talk about the most underrated defenseman on the team, Vince Dunn. Dunn has done it all this season. He’s buried four goals, stayed out of the box (4 PIM), and has played strong defense with 1.4 Defensive Point Shares.
His best stat is his Corsi For Percentage. When Dunn is on the ice, the Blues control the puck 55% of the time. They start in the offensive zone 56.6% of the time and Blues goalies save 93% of the shots with Dunn in the game. The 23-year-old has done incredible work on the underappreciated third defensive pairing.
Jordan Binnington
Jordan Binnington is exactly who Blues fans have been wanting for a long time. Coming off a 40-save shutout against Calgary, Binnington’s numbers are eye-popping looking like a sure-fire Vezina Trophy contender.
His 11 wins this season are tied for the league lead. He sits in fourth with a 2.19 Goals-Against Average (GAA) and sixth with a .926 save percentage. In 18 starts, he has piled up 11 quality starts with no Really Bad Starts (RBS, save percentage under 85%).
The advanced analytics reflect his performance with a GA% – goals allowed % relative to the league, 100 is average, lower is better – of 80 and a Goals Saved Above Average (goals saved against the league average goalie) of 9.86. All around, Binnington has shown that he is the guy the Blues can completely rely on.
Overall, the first 23 games could not have gone much better for the St. Louis Blues. With so many players living up to their expectations and more, there is no reason to expect anything less than a deep Stanley Cup playoff run.