The St. Louis Blues are caught between a rock and a hard place regarding their captain. It might be Doug Armstrong’s biggest challenge.
St. Louis Blues have enough reasons to dislike the Nashville Predators. Besides being a division rival, and some very chesty fans – as in brash, not a sexual term – Blues fans have another reason they should gather a large bag of coal and send it to the southeast.
The Blues knew they were going to have a particular problem come the offseason of 2020 anyway. Then, the Predators made things worse by giving a rather large contract to Roman Josi.
After the 2019-20 season, the Nashville defender will have a cap hit of just over $9 million. Normally, you just shrug and say teams can pay whatever they want, because it isn’t always an apples to apples comparison.
The problem the Blues run into is it is an apples to apples discussion when talking about Pietrangelo vs. Josi. Thus, the Josi contract directly affects the Blues in their potential negotiations with Pietrangelo.
The two defenders are similar players. Josi is slightly more offensive minded and some analysts would say Pietrangelo is a slightly better overall player, but the gap is not as big as Blues or Nashville fans would like to believe.
Josi’s career bests are 15 goals and 61 points (different seasons, oddly enough), though he will set a new goals record this year since he already has 14 goals through 36 games. Pietrangelo’s best numbers are 15 goals and 54 points. He might also crack a new best for goals since he has nine already, but that is not a given.
Pietrangelo has better defensive point share numbers and more consistent numbers. Again, the difference is not astronomical.
Josi is normally in the fours or fives. Petro is up and down, with his best numbers in the sixes. The overall point share numbers are pretty similar.
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The playoff numbers are on the same path too. Pietrangelo has more numbers, but their best two playoff seasons are almost identical. Pietrangelo’s best years had 19 points and 10 points. Josi had 14 points and nine.
Additionally, both are the team’s captains. So, you cannot argue one has more importance to the locker room than the other.
So, how can the Blues justify a lower offer to the only captain that has ever won a Stanley Cup with the Blues? Their rival just paid a large sum for their captain who has yet to win a Cup and they put up similar numbers.
The Blues will almost have to rely on the idea they are trying to keep together a winner and Pietrangelo’s salary will have to adhere to what their current salary cap situation is. Whether Pietrangelo is willing to accept that or not is the unknown quantity.
The issue the Blues have is that this situation is not black and white, cut and dry. As much as fans will make this about the financial situation, that is not the only thing at play here.
One of the other problems the Blues have is they don’t really have anyone suited to step into their lineup yet. Niko Mikkola is a promising prospect and has the build for the NHL, but he has yet to play an NHL game.
The Blues brought him up due to injuries, but he was sent back down to San Antonio without suiting up. It is unrealistic to think he will simply jump right into the lineup as a replacement for one of the team’s better defenders if Pietrangelo is wearing a different sweater in 2020-21.
Jake Walman and Mitch Reinke are other names the Blues are interested in within their system. Walman is finally looking like a pro player in the AHL, but based on preseason games, he still has a ton to learn. Reinke seems like a good player, but his ceiling might not be that high.
So, as much as fans like these guys’ potential, the reality is the Blues don’t have the next Pietrangelo waiting in the wings.
Colton Parayko is good enough to take over the top spot as a right handed defenseman. The Blues also have a good player in Justin Faulk that would fit quite well as the second righty. Even then, that thins the ranks and also leaves you without a more defensively responsible player since Faulk is more offensively oriented.
Of course, the Blues could add a current NHL defenseman in free agency or via a trade. However, that would spring the inevitable chorus of boo birds asking why they did not just throw money at Pietrangelo instead of going the cheap route.
Zach Bogosian, Torey Krug, Justin Schultz and Tyson Barrie will all potentially be free agents this summer. Again, the savings you would get with any of those could be minimal and they’re all around Pietrangelo’s age too, so you’re not getting younger and fans will wonder why you didn’t just keep Pietrangelo.
That circles back to the financial aspect of it. Clearly, there are some fans out there that say just pay the man for time served and not looking like he’s slowing down.
The problem with that is, while the Blues are currently in a championship window, they have obtained that championship and kept their window cracked for a long time by being financially responsible. We can argue whether they have overpaid certain players, but even those contracts never truly broke the bank.
Paying Pietrangelo $9-10 million-plus might be OK for a season or two, but eventually you will start losing your up and coming players because of deals like that. Look at Chicago.
Nobody that supports the Blackhawks would give up their three Stanley Cups in the last decade for the world. However, they are paying for it now by being relegated to one of the league’s worst teams with no relief in sight as those big contracts are on the books for many years to come.
Some might argue the Blues could probably absorb one big contract. I argue the Blues, as a franchise, are better suited to have many mid-to-high level contracts as opposed to one or two elite contracts and trying to fill out the rest with low level deals.
The problem fans have is we have no clue who wants what or what the team is actually willing to give. There have been almost no negotiations and if there were talks, there is only speculation as to what they entailed. There is no concrete reporting and not for lack of trying.
Nobody wants to lose Pietrangelo. While many fans were ready to ship him out after the 2018-19 season, the reality is that was just typical fan unrest. Most fans would love Pietrangelo to be able to retire with the team that drafted him.
However, pro sports no longer allows us such sentimentality. The business side, both for the team and player, require them to make decisions that we simply cannot identify with.
Maybe the lure of family could keep Pietrangelo in the Note. His wife is from St. Louis and his triplets were born here.
On the flip side, if a team is willing to pay him $10 million or more, that is hard to pass up. Wives always have other wives to lean on in new cities and the children are young enough that a move would not be hard to deal with.
You do have to take living conditions into consideration too. Canadian taxes are higher and Toronto is more expensive to live in, so maybe the extra $2 million per season is not as enticing. Nobody has explained how the Maple Leafs can even be in the mix given their cap situation, but I digress.
It all boils down to this being a big mess that likely won’t be resolved until after the season.
Sure, the Blues could trade Pietrangelo, but are they really going to alter their locker room that much while attempting to repeat as champions? I think not.
Will they be willing to let their Stanley Cup captain, who is also on pace for a career year in 2019-20, walk in free agency or will they worry it would be a PR nightmare? Personally, I still stand in the camp that they cannot afford to pay him anything over $8.5 million. I just feel it handcuffs them too much for future seasons.
I’m not in charge, though, and neither are you. This ultimately boils down to Tom Stillman, Doug Armstrong, Pietrangelo and his agent. One thing is for sure – it is a complicated situation with no easy answers.