St. Louis Blues: Projected 2020 Stanley Cup Playoff Lines
It appears the St. Louis Blues will be heading to Edmonton to take part in the new playoff format set in place by the NHL in response to the COVID-19 shortened season. What will their lines look like?
The St. Louis Blues’ roster did not change very much from last season, so the predictions made in this article are a little bit easy to guess, but they are still worth discussing. Most fans know which players click and what lines the Chief likes to throw out there at the beginning of the game.
The one change from the regular season to now will be the addition of scoring winger Vladimir Tarasenko. His addition could push another forward down the line. Or, Craig Berube might throw a curveball and put Tarasenko somewhere unexpected.
We will dive into that in the coming pages.
Hopefully, this team can pull off a repeat this season and find a way to keep the band together for a couple of years in an attempt to move their status into a dynasty. Wishful thinking aside, 2020 is not over yet and it is time to make predictions on playoff lines.
Forward Line One: Sammy Blais–Ryan O’Reilly–David Perron
The Ryan O’Reilly–David Perron pairing is a no brainer. They have found nothing but chemistry since O’Reilly arrived from Buffalo two years ago and the numbers speak for themselves.
Perron posted 60 regular-season points and nine game-winning goals. The man known as ROR put up 61 points and three game-winners.
Last year’s postseason speaks for itself as well. O’Reilly was the Conn Smythe award winner with 23 points (nine in the Stanley Cup). Perron was also solid with 16 points and seven goals.
The questionable pick for this line is Sammy Blais. There are many people who would say that Jordan Kyrou belongs on this line or at least somewhere in this lineup, but he has not showed quite enough to throw him into a starting spot in the playoffs just yet.
Blais did not impress this season after only 13 points in 40 games, even after a hot start. However, he does a phenomenal job of laying the body and maintaining possession of the puck.
This is exactly the type of player that a duo like O’Reilly and Perron, with this much offensive chemistry, needs. They need someone who gets to the dirty areas and does not turn the puck over.
Forward Line Two: Jaden Schwartz–Brayden Schenn–Vladimir Tarasenko
Again, this is a no brainer despite the tease earlier that the Blues might do something different. Brayden Schenn and Jaden Schwartz work together so well and with Vladimir Tarasenko coming back, there is no reason not to reassemble this line once again.
The controversy here is that they are placed on the second line rather than the first.
At their peak, this line started most games and earned a ton of ice time over the O’Reilly-Perron line. This used to be the line with the most offensive firepower, but not anymore.
O’Reilly is fantastic at winning faceoffs and he should be out there for as many as possible – including the first one of the game. Additionally, the success that he and Perron have found on the first line is undeniable. This should be the go-to scoring line heading into the playoffs.
Still, it shows the depth the Blues can showcase. If you can put together a line featuring Schenn, Schwartz and Tarasenko and not have it be considered your top line, you’re in pretty good shape.
Forward Line Three: Alex Steen–Tyler Bozak–Robert Thomas
This was a line that the Blues used a decent amount earlier in the season but abandoned after a couple of weeks. Personally, I loved the way that this line worked together.
Tyler Bozak and Robert Thomas make a great possession duo combining their faceoff ability with their ability to skate well with the puck. This was also a line that got Alex Steen’s offense kick-started for a time.
I wrote an article about this line five months ago that will give a little bit of backstory on why I think this will be the Blues’ third line. In summary, there was a five-game stretch where Steen posted six points, Bozak posted five points, and Thomas posted four.
They seem to play a complementary style. They’re all workhorses, but have skill to go along with it. If they get it going like they were earlier this year, we could easily have the best third line in the NHL playoffs.
Forward Line Four: Ivan Barbashev–Oskar Sundqvist–Jacob De La Rose
Ivan Barbashev and Oskar Sundqvist have been mainstays on this fourth line all season – and they do a great job. Sundqvist has posted 23 points and Barbashev has posted 26 points. They play a solid game and I could not ask much more from the fourth line.
Things get kind of hairy on that right-wing slot though. Mackenzie MacEachern has more time on the ice this season for the Blues, but I believe that Jacob de La Rose will get the initial nod for a couple of reasons.
First, the playoffs are a different animal than the regular season. It is significantly more physical, and De La Rose plays on a different physical level than MacEachern does.
De La Rose is thicker at 6-3, 215 lbs and he tallied 88 hits to MacEachern’s 82 in 17 fewer games.
The second reason I think he wins the spot is that Craig Berube is the head coach.
He is going to opt for the guy who will give him the most physicality on a fourth line that already has some scoring talent (relative to the fourth line). De La rose may not start every game, but I think he will get a solid chunk of time to prove he belongs on the fourth line.
Some people might want to slot Steen into this line and that would make sense given how good he was there during last year’s postseason. However, de La Rose doesn’t fit with the third line as well, so Steen gets put further up.
Defensive Pairing One: Justin Faulk–Alex Pietrangelo
I will be honest, this line straight up does not work very well. But, because the other two defensive lines make more sense, this is the only option.
Plus, these guys are two massively talented players. They should eventually be able to find a way to work together – right?
Alex Pietrangelo had a fantastic regular season with 52 points and three game-winning goals. He averaged just over 24 minutes of ice time per night and collected 4.3 defensive points shares. The captain showed himself as one of the best defensemen in the game of hockey.
Justin Faulk, on the other hand, has not lived up to the contract extension going in next year. He posted just 16 points and 2.3 defensive point shares compared to 35 points and 4.9 defensive point shares last season with the Carolina Hurricanes.
The new Blues defenseman has received a lot of hate from fans this season, but it is not time to give up on him just yet. He is still a legitimate threat and my colleague Todd Panula recently wrote about why we should continue to have faith in him.
This does not change the fact that we have two right-handed defensemen accustomed to playing the right defensive slot on the same line. They seem somewhat awkward together, but hopefully, they can figure it out if they find themselves sharing ice.
Defensive Pairing Two: Marco Scandella–Colton Parayko
On this line, we have two strong shutdown defenders. Colton Parayko has an incredible reach and the Blues have loved Marco Scandella’s play so much in 11 games that they gave him a contract extension.
In those 11 games, Scandella has nearly one defensive point share and a plus-four. He is a fantastic left defenseman to complement the big man.
Parayko on the other hand collected 3.6 defensive point shares and 28 points on offense. His plus-eight and 23 minutes of ice time per night show that he is not only capable of locking things down, but that the team trusts him to do so.
Both guys have the trust of the team and will most likely be the go-to lockdown defense line. Parayko and Jay Bouwmeester had that honor in 2019. I would not be surprised if this duo play a lot of minutes against the opposition’s top forward line since Scandella has filled in quite nicely.
Defensive Pairing Three: Vince Dunn–Robert Bortuzzo
Vince Dunn might be a little bit too low in the starting lineup, but he will matchup with Robert Bortuzzo really well. Dunn is a quick player with strong defensive skills while Bortuzzo is a bruiser through and through.
Neither guy posted a ton of offense this season, but the advanced metrics showed that they contributed a ton to the team defensively. Their plus-minus stats speak for themselves as well.
Dunn leads the team with a plus-15 this season. Interestingly, Bortuzzo sits in third with a plus-12, besting guys like O’Reilly, Pietrangelo, and Parayko.
An argument could be made to put Dunn on the second line with Parayko. I really think that Berube will pair some young speed with brute force on the third pairing. Plus, the Scandella/Parayko pairing was just too good, even if we only saw it for a few games.
Goalie: Jordan Binnington
No doubt about it, the starting goalie for the St. Louis Blues heading into the playoffs will be Jordan Binnington. He had a fantastic playoff run last season and will get another shot this year.
He was an all-star in the 2020 All-Star Game in St. Louis. There is no reason why this cold-blooded puck stopper would be out of the net later this month.
Binnington had his fair share of shaky starts last postseason, but he stilled ripped off the most wins in one playoff run for a rookie goalie with 16 against 10 losses. He had a .914 save percentage and allowed just under two and a half goals per game.
This season he won 30 of 50 games played with 3.56 goals-against average and a .912 save percentage. The advanced metrics say he was a slightly above average goalie (97 GA%-) but Blues fans know he was really good outside of a small cold stretch that brought his stats down.
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Whenever this man is in net, the Blues have a chance every single night. Combined with the team in front of him, the Blues should be strong contenders to take their second consecutive Stanley Cup.