There is no denying the St. Louis Blues made some savvy moves, both in the offseason and with an in-season coaching change that brought Jim Montgomery to town. It shows us that better days are ahead, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this team turns into a contender next season.
Unfortunately, it’s looking less and less like the case this year, with the Blues playing some of the most inconsistent hockey in the NHL. But hey, at least inconsistent is better than playing a consistently bad game like their division rival, the Chicago Blackhawks.
Yeah, small joke to those whose allegiance resides in the Windy City. Anyway, what’s causing so many inconsistencies in Gateway City? We can point to three completely migraine-inducing statistics that might just be the culprits.
Special teams, especially the power play
You can’t compete in the NHL’s best division without some sound special teams play, and the Blues have none of it. Their power play is especially bad, converting just 15.58 percent of its opportunities following Friday's matchup, while the league average was 20.86.
You’ll notice a common theme throughout the rest of this article, and it discusses another two areas where the Blues are lacking when they have the puck. And it’s why, if they’re not going to consistently score, they need their defense, goaltending, and penalty kill to be in sync.
Unfortunately for the Blues, none of this is the case, and their penalty kill is doing its job 76.67 percent of the time. No, that’s not far under the 79.14 that makes up the rest of the league average, but when the team isn’t scoring, it’s especially detrimental.
Actual goals for vs. expected goals for
Given how anemic the Blues can be when they have the puck, I was shocked to see that their expected Goals For (xGF) at 5-on-5 wasn’t bad. That number resided at 69.7, or 2.9 above the NHL average.
Now, let’s shift gears to actual Goals For (aGF) and the Blues had just 59 after their matchup on Friday night with the Florida Panthers. Not only does that number display quite a difference; 59 aGF is six goals below the league average.
This shows us that when the Blues have a good look, they’re not capitalizing, and it’s why they’ve slacked in finding twine all season. The next and final statistic sheds even more light on this issue.
Creating scoring chances
Again, when you’re 26th in the league with just 86 goals for after the Blues Friday night matchup with the Florida Panthers, there are a few reasons behind it. Not only can’t the Blues finish plays, they have a tough time making anything happen.
Just take one look at three statistics at 5-on-5, and it drives the point home:
- Corsi For: 47.9
- Scoring Chances For: 46.4
- High-Danger Chances For: 46.4
This tells me the Blues, while putting themselves in good positions to score, just aren’t creating enough. No, these numbers wouldn’t be as much of an issue had they converted a few of those expected goals into actual goals, but that hasn’t been the case.
Something’s got to give, and either the Blues start putting pucks in the net when they have a chance to, or they need to create more scoring chances. But improving neither nor isn’t a recipe for success, especially when you’re dealing with the mighty Central Division.