Dylan Holloway exploded onto the scene in 2024-25 with a breakout campaign of 26 goals and 63 points in 77 games played. The 23-year old proved himself to already be one of the core pieces of this Blues roster despite his age, and could be set for another massive step forward.
However, not all progression is linear in the NHL. Is there some regression due for the young forward who had such an exciting young season? Or could he take the next step into stardom and prove he is not just one of the best young forwards on the team. but one of the best young forwards in the league?
A sophomore slump?
Dylan Holloway had such an impressive season last year that there is a case against his production, and some reason to believe that could have been an outlier.
Holloway always showed flashes of potential but never this consistently, and there is no guarantee he can repeat with the same performance this year. A sophomore slump could be in order.
Holloway scored 63 points in almost a full seasons worth which is an 82-game point pace of 67 points. This blows his previous career marks out of the water, as the season previous he paced for 19 points in a full seasons worth with just nine points in 38 games played.
This could point to last season being more of an outlier rather than the expectation. Furthermore, it is completely normal for young players to take a step back after their first taste of big league action as the league adjusts to their level of play. A sophomore slump could be a natural next step in a still promising career.
Finally, there is one statistic that points to a step backwards for Holloway. His shooting percentage landed at a terrific 14.6%, meaning that number of shots he took were converted into goals. This number was fourth on the team of all qualified skaters and could point to some lucky bounces going his way, as this shooting percentage is a very high mark for a young skater to achieve.
If his shooting percentage regresses to the mean, so too will his goal totals and by extension his points. This is the case for a lateral step or a slight step backwards for Holloway this season.
A young and ascending player
There is always the possibility, however, that Holloway will only improve as he is still a young player who is learning how to play in the NHL.
Holloway had his taste of the NHL level in Edmonton, though he didn't receive much real opportunity. In Edmonton, Holloway was competing for ice time, whereas he had the runway to consistent playing time in St. Louis. This could indicate that what Holloway showed last year is simply what he always could have done if he was given the chance in Edmonton.
Furthermore, he should still have more to learn. Entering his age-24 season means Holloway has not even finished growing into his body yet and could still have some areas of his game to refine. The natural aging curve for forwards would suggest that most NHL players are not fully developed until their age-27 season or so, meaning there could be several steps for Holloway left to take.
It would be perfectly reasonable to expect some level of growth from Holloway this coming season, given his extremely young age and clear talent and ability. Holloway is on the fast track to becoming a star or even superstar winger, and could find himself at that level even this coming season.
Whether he fails to capitalize on the potential of last season or succeeds in giving back on the promise of his skillset only remains to be seen for this coming season. Dylan Holloway had a terrific season as a 23-year old, and is set for a big year to prove to Blues fans who he really is as a skater and what his career as a Blue could look like.
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