St. Louis Blues fans hoping 19-year-old right wing Justin Carbonneau would force his way into the NHL quickly may need to adjust the timeline. The 2025 first-round pick has five goals in 15 minutes with the Springfield Thunderbirds, and the underlying numbers are really showing he may not even be a midseason call-up.
Growing pains in Springfield
Any case for patience for Carbonneau starts with his production. Carbonneau scored 51 goals and 80 points in 60 regular season games for Blainville-Boisbriand last season, with a 1.33 point per game pace. Now in Springfield, he is at 0.53 and his shot totals have fallen from 5.2 per night to 3.2. His total attempts have even dropped from about 9.4 per game to roughly 5.5. For a rookie forward, he is still doing well, but has had to endure the adjustment to playing against older, stronger opponents.
According to InStat Hockey, Carbonneau averaged 19:58 of ice time in his first five games, with a 25 minute game on Sept. 25, but is down to 16:31 over his last five. He has not scored a goal in his last eight games and only two points in his last five. The first 15 games of his AHL career is certainly a small sample size, but this is the best opportunity for him at this point in his career.
A crowded forward group
The roster is ready for another scoring threat to be added to the lineup. There’s no denying that. However, the Blues have 14 forwards on the roster with a combined cap hit of $55.6 million. The Blues have Robert Thomas ($8.125m), Pavel Buchnevich ($8m), Dylan Holloway ($7.75m), Mason McTavish ($7m), and Connor McMichael ($6.75m), all signed through 2031. On the right side, Jimmy Snuggerud (22) has held down the top line role, while Buchnevich is trying to reclaim his form on the third line and playing a penalty-killing role, all playing ahead of Carbonneau on the depth chart.
Openings will eventually come. Pius Suter ($4.125m) is set to become an unrestricted free agent after this season, and Snuggerud, Jake Neighbours, Jonatan Berggren will be restricted free agents. The 2027-28 group will not look exactly like fans see on the current 2026-27 roster.
Carbonneau will undoubtedly have additional competition if fellow forward prospects make an extended push. Aleksentari Kaskimäki is already showing he is capable of holding down a bottom-six role for the Blues, while Otto Stenberg has had his fair share of NHL games already and while he has now jumped off the page, he has already added 11 points in 35 games to date. Carbonneau will also have international competition as well if forward prospect Dmitri Buchelnikov intends to leave the KHL to the United States. The 23-year-old Russian forward is already playing a middle-six role in the KHL with CSKA Moskva with nine goals and 12 points in 25 games.
For now, the Blues have little reason to rush the 19-year-old who is still learning where his shots will come from. There’s next 20 games in Springfield should give both the Blues and fans whether a spot on next’s seasons roster makes sense, or if he could be looking at an extended stretch in the AHL will be needed.
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