The St. Louis Blues announced the extension of defenseman Philip Broberg on Saturday. The deal came in at six years, worth $48 million. That’s an $8 million cap hit for the 24-year-old blueliner.
On the surface, this deal is a home run for the Blues. They got a solid, young defenseman for a cap hit below market value. When looking at other similar extensions this season, namely New Jersey Devils Luke Hughes, Anaheim Ducks Jackson LaCombe, and Montreal Canadiens Lane Hutson, the Blues actually got a bit of a deal with this contract.
Now, you could argue that Broberg isn’t in the same category as Hutson, LaCombe, or Hughes. But that’s because he’s not the same type of defenseman.
Broberg is mainly a defensive blueliner with some offensive upside. Broberg has scored two goals and 14 points in 45 games this season. But his underlying numbers look fantastic for a team with such a porous defense.
Yes, the Blues are 29th in the league with a 3.44 GAA, entering Saturday’s action. But that’s a team stat. When looking at individual numbers, Broberg has excelled at keeping high-danger chances low when he’s on the ice.
MoneyPuck shows 85 low-danger unblocked shot attempts while Broberg is on the ice. That’s four fewer chances than Colorado Avalanche elite defensive defenseman Devon Toews. It’s also lower than other top-flight defensive blueliners like Filip Hronek, Brady Skjei, and Vladislav Gavrikov.
If you look at the number of shot attempts with Broberg on the ice, a total of 155 attempts have occurred. However, only 58 of those have actually hit the net. 37 have missed, with 60 getting blocked.
Those underlying numbers explain why the Blues took such a massive swing on Broberg. He’s the only truly good defensive defenseman on the club. Sure, better offensive numbers would be nice. But that’s not really why the Blues are betting on Broberg over the next six seasons.
Blues buying out Broberg’s early UFA years
It’s also worth pointing out that the Blues have bought out Broberg’s early UFA years. This summer, Broberg would have been a restricted free agent. However, that won’t be an issue anymore. In fact, his extension will take him to age 31, when he would become an unrestricted free agent.
That situation means the Blues have bought themselves time by locking in Broberg’s most valuable years.
Suppose that the two sides had agreed on a three-year bridge deal. That sort of contract would have walked him straight into UFA status by the time the deal concluded. At that point, Broberg’s market value, assuming he remains a solid defensive defenseman, would not be $8 million. It would likely jump over $10 million, given the cap dynamics likely to unfold in two or three years.
Ultimately, the Blues got a huge bargain on Broberg. The former first-round draft pick gets paid, while the club locks in cost certainty. The early prognosis is that this deal will age very well as the cap rises.
The only caveat here is that Broberg might see some backwardation in his performance. However, that doesn’t seem likely, at least from what we’ve seen so far.