Dalibor Dvorsky went as the highest Blues pick since Alex Pietrangelo in 2008 and had about as high expectations as any Blues prospect in the last decade.
Dvorsky’s strengths mainly come from his elite shot as well as being responsible in all three zones, and though we’ve seen the positives on the defensive side of his game, he’s only recorded 24 points in his first 84 games at the NHL level.
Why his time may be limited
Head coach Jim Montgomery has not shied away from criticizing the offensive output of the young centerman and has publicly stated they’re looking for further strides there.
Additionally, Dvorsky has only seen 12:34 of average ice time to start this season, which adds to the frustration on his end because his limited ice time makes it very tough to contribute.
Though the frustration is understandable, this lack of playing time is most likely warranted, as his offensive rating ranks in just the 18th percentile, with his defensive rating also at just the 35th percentile, according to HockeyStatCards.com.
These stats, in combination with his ice time, could be preceding a shocking move to send him down to work these things out in the AHL.
How would the Blues respond to this move?
The Blues have a lot of talent with NHL experience in the AHL right now, but the name that feels most intriguing is Jack Finley.
For a team lacking physicality on its fourth line, Finley’s massive size at 6'6" and 227 pounds could really bolster that aspect, and sliding Pius Suter, who’s had a bounce-back offensively to start this year, to the third line would make a lot of sense as well.
Additionally, looking long-term, if Justin Carbonneau pushes his way onto the NHL roster, he’s going to demand a top-nine spot in the offense, and right now, Dvorsky is certainly the one who would clear that spot for him.
How may this affect Dvorsky’s career?
A demotion to Springfield wouldn’t necessarily mark the end of the line for Dvorsky. It took Jordan Kyrou until his third season to establish himself as a full-time NHLer, and we saw him go on to have a long career in St. Louis.
However, we also saw another former top prospect, Klim Kostin, similarly get sent down in his third season with the team, but he never made it back to the NHL for the Blues and was then traded to Edmonton a few months later for next to nothing.
Interestingly, among these top prospects, Dvorsky is 21 years old, which is a year younger than Kostin was when he was last sent down and a year older than Kyrou was when he was. It’s fair to expect that if he were to be sent down, his career outlook would fall somewhere between these two.
Of course, all of this could be immediately thrown out the window if Dvorsky gets hot and forces Montgomery to give him more minutes, but the time for waiting for this is running out.
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