Recently, the Athletic published their top 100 prospect list, and Dalibor Dvorsky found himself at 38th and in "tier 4". Scott Wheeler of the Athletic compiled a list of the NHL's best 100 prospects, but the ranking for Dvorsky compared to his peers was lower than Blues fans might expect.
Dvorsky ended up as the third-ranked prospect in the Blues system, behind Justin Carbonneau (30th) and Jimmy Snuggerud (27th), both in the tier above him. To have Snuggerud and Carbonneau above Dvorsky is debatable, but an understandable claim; however, to have Dvorsky an entire tier behind the two top wingers in the Blues system is a decision that doesn't make all too much sense.
Has public opinion soured on Dvorsky? Is he becoming an underrated skater who could once again surprise the NHL with his ability at his young age of 20 this season? This ranking indicates that to be the case.
Prospect status, prospect fatigue
Dalibor Dvorsky was drafted 10th overall in 2023. He was a projected top-5 or top-7 pick, depending on where you looked, so the fact that he fell to the Blues at 10th overall was a stroke of great luck for Doug Armstrong and the Blues.
Last year on Scott Wheeler's list, Dvorsky placed 51st out of 100 prospects. This means that he did climb up 13 spots, but still finds himself on the periphery of the upper echelon of NHL prospects.
Given his draft pedigree as a top-10 pick and pre-draft status, Dvorsky entered the Blues' system with lofty expectations. However, these rankings are not as indicative of his prospect status. Does this mean he has been disappointing during his time so far in the Blues system?
Far from it, to be clear. Dvorsky put up 88 points in 52 games in the OHL for the Sudbury Wolves and went over a point per game in their playoff run. He followed up that excellent season with 45 points in 61 games in the AHL, a very impressive showing in international competition, going over a point per game again, and a call-up to the NHL.
What is likely happening with Dvorsky at this point is a bit of prospect fatigue, or the idea that when a player is a prospect for so long and makes fans and scouts wait, that can be equated to their stock falling. In reality, this is not the case; it is just an example of the natural impatience of sports fans.
Dvorsky entered the Blues system as one of their best prospects and should still retain that moniker. He is an excellent skater and showed off a very impressive level of hockey IQ during his time in the AHL and in his two-game cup of coffee at the NHL level.
His tools, especially on the mental side, and his developmental path are eerily similar to that of a current Blues superstar.
Like his predecessor before him: Robert Thomas
Like Dvorsky, Robert Thomas entered the league as a 19-year-old. He, however, played almost the full season versus Dvorsky's two games. In his first full season, Thomas scored 33 points in 70 games played, just under half a point per game, and very impressive for his age.
Dvorsky will be entering his first full season of NHL play this coming year, so if he matches that 0.5 PPG pace, the comparisons to Thomas will only grow stronger.
The two often draw comparisons both as top prospects in the Blues system, as top-six centers with impressive playmaking ability, and as players with some of the best on-ice hockey IQ Blues fans have seen in recent years.
Dvorsky's best tool is, by far, his mind and his vision. In his first NHL game, Dvorsky helped start a sequence for a goal with a spectacular behind-the-back pass. He didn't end up earning a point on the play, but still impressed with his vision and IQ. This parallels Thomas' calling card, his playmaking, and his talent as one of the best passers in the entire NHL.
Dvorsky has taken all the right steps to follow in the footsteps of a skater like Thomas, so there really is no reason his perception in the NHL should be dropping. For a more expanded discussion, check out the most recent episode of my podcast, the Note News podcast, to hear more about Dvorsky and the rest of the Blues' prospects on the Athletic's top 100 prospect ranking.
Dvorsky is taking all the right steps to become the next great Blues player. He has the draft pedigree and the production at minor league levels; all that is left for him is to prove it at the NHL level.
There is no reason to think Dvorsky can't do it. He has shown exactly what we had hoped for up to this point and is right on track to impress with the Blues club. If the public opinion on Dvorsky has dropped as someone not on the same level as a Jimmy Snuggerud, then the public is about to be very surprised by what comes next.