There's been a fair bit of NHL action the last couple of days, with many teams signing young players to eight-year contract extensions--and today in particular. Drake Batherson (Ottawa Senators) and Ryan Leonard (Washington Capitals) both signed eight-year deals this morning, and Noah Ostlund (Buffalo Sabres) signed a max-term contract last night.
Teams are rushing to get these deals done because, at midnight tonight, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) goes into effect. Starting tomorrow, the maximum number of years a contract can carry will be seven. That benefits players (they can take another crack at the rising cap at a more reasonable age) and teams (less risk as a player ages), but one of the drawbacks will be cost certainty and control for front offices. Gone are the days of Jack Hughes-level players signing eight-year, $8-million AAV deals; the Philadelphia Flyers' offer sheet of Leo Carlsson has changed the league.
The St. Louis Blues, at time of writing, have a few players it may be wise to lock up for eight years.
The players it'd make sense to sign
There are three players on the Blues who should be in the discussion for an eight-year contract extension before the new CBA takes effect at midnight: Jimmy Snuggerud, Jake Neighbours, and Logan Mailloux.
Snuggerud has clear top-of-the-lineup goal-scoring potential, Jake Neighbours has been named part of the new leadership group, and Logan Mailloux looked like the real deal after the Winter Olympic break last season. All of them have one year remaining on their current deals, but locking up long-term could be in the Blues' best interest.
Why it would be good
Cost certainty and team control are key here. For the organization, having all three players locked up until age 30 and beyond--the primes of NHL players--would bring stability to the lineup. As the cap continues to balloon, a high cap hit now will be a smaller percentage as the years go by, setting the Blues up to take major swings at high-priced players should they become available in the future.
For the players, it's tens of millions of dollars that you're guaranteed to make. Injuries and regression can undo a player's career and limit their maximum earnings if they choose to take shorter-term contracts. Knowing exactly how much money you're going to make for the next eight years is solid financial security. Plus, as part of the new CBA, contracts can't be as front-loaded with bonuses; signing now would guarantee a major payday early on, instead of being spread across the length of a contract.
Why it won't happen
The reasons it'd be good for all three players and the Blues are the same; the reasons they're unlikely to get eight-year contracts today are unique to each situation.
The Blues would surely love to have Jimmy Snuggerud locked up for eight years, taking him through this age-30 season. However, it's unlikely Snuggerud would be too keen to sign that contract, because it would limit his potential earnings. Let's do some back-of-the-napkin math here.
This season's cap is $104 million; 10 percent of that is $10.4 million. If Snuggerud signs a contract with that cap hit for eight years, by the backend it'll be a paltry cap hit and potentially one of the most efficient contracts in the league. That's good for the Blues, but less so for Snuggerud, because 10 percent of the cap in four years would mean several million more per year in salary.
We've already seen this summer that players going from their ELCs to their first contract--especially high-end ones--are taking shorter terms than in the past. Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson, and Macklin Celebrini all signed for five years; elsewhere, Jamie Drysdale and Trevor Zegras signed for four years with the Philadelphia Flyers. All of these players will get another crack at the league's rising revenue while they're still in their primes.
It'd be surprising to see Snuggerud commit to eight years when there's so much potential money on the table if he signs for a shorter term.
Logan Mailloux, on the other hand, would probably be stoked to sign for eight years. He's struggled a lot at the NHL level, as many young defensemen often do, but flashed some serious potential late last season. The Blues would be betting that those two months of elevated play are the real deal--a risky proposition. The cap hit would probably be much lower than Snuggerud's, but that won't matter if Mailloux's development once again stalls out; it'd be a long-term contract for an underwhelming player that the Blues would be stuck with. The savings potential is high if Mailloux blossoms, but the chance it backfires is probably too great.
The most interesting candidate for an eight-year extension tonight is Jake Neighbours. Let's be honest: Neighbours probably tops out as a middle-six winger who's good for about 25 goals a year. That's not the kind of player a team always wants under contract for eight years, nor does a young player want to bet against themselves and their ability to improve and earn a bigger payday later in their career.
Neighbours, however, is 24 years old--the cusp of his prime--and just had an "A" stitched to his sweater. Pardon the pun, but the kid bleeds blue and is an integral part of the team. The Blues would likely love to make him a Blue for (potentially) the rest of his career, and Neighbours seems like the kind of "team first" player who would accept a max-term extension.
Ultimately, it'd be a surprise if any of these three players signed an eight-year deal before the clock strikes midnight. If we were to bet on one, though, it'd be Neighbours.
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