For years, Pavel Buchnevich has been one of the most productive players for the Blues. Ever since he was acquired from the Rangers in 2021, he's been a lock to score around 60 points and is someone that the Blues have built their roster around. If the Blues were gonna have any success this season, Buchnevich was going to be a big reason for this. But with the Blues struggling this season, many of the guys they thought they could count on did not live up to expectations. Was Buchnevich one of these players?
Expectations for the 2025-26 season
Going into the season, Buchnevich was expected to be one of the most important forwards for the Blues. He was slated to play on the top line alongside Robert Thomas and Jimmy Snuggerud. Although he saw a dip in point production, he was still expected to be a strong point producer for the Blues. He was not going to be the 70-plus player he once was, but he still could get around 55 to 60 points. This should be the top five on the Blues.
While Buchnevich was seen as a 55-60-point player, many thought he would need to take another step forward. If the Blues wanted to make the playoffs, they needed Buchnevich to be the player he was back in 2021-22. It would provide the team with the offensive production they needed.
Performance
It was not the start to the season that Buchnevich would have hoped for. Over the first two months of the season, Buchnevich only tallied three goals and eight assists for 11 points. However, this production took place in two stretches: at the beginning of October and at the end of November. Between October 28th and November 21st, he recorded only 1 assist in 13 games. This poor play earned him a lot of criticism. There were even calls for him to be benched.
But in December, Buchnevich turned his season around. In 15 games, he registered four goals and six assists for 10 points. This strong play continued as in January, he notched two goals and seven assists for nine points. Although he took a step back in February, he still managed 11 goals and 7 assists for 18 points over the final three months of the season. This gave him a grand total of 20 goals and 28 assists for 48 points. Not great, but better than what was expected in November.
His metrics were decent as well. According to Natural Stat Trick, he had a 49.79 CF%, 50.89 SCF%, and a 49.42 xG%. He also allowed only 467 scoring chances and 193 high-danger chances. He also seemed to be a good fit alongside Jake Neighbours. According to Moneypuck, lines with Buchnevich and Neighbours produced a 55.55 xGoals% and a 7.2 xGoals For. It's clear that Buchnevich is able to get the most out of Neighbours, which is great for his development.
Grade: C
Where do we go from here?
While Buchnevich put up his worst point total as a Blue, he still can be a valuable piece for the Blues moving forward. His hot stretch during the last few months of the season shows that he is still able to produce at a solid level. He's the type of player who could fill a spot on the Blues' middle six. He can be someone that the Blues can rely on for 40-50 points a season. He can also provide some veteran leadership to the young guys on the roster.
Of course, this is all based on whether the Blues decide to keep him. With Alexander Steen set to take over as General Manager and the Blues entering some sort of re-tool, it is not a guarantee that Buchnevich will be back. Sure, they would be selling him at his lowest, but could still land a decent return of draft picks or a young player. It would also open a spot on the NHL roster for one of the young guys to take. It's a tough decision that the Blues will have to make.
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