With the 2024 NHL season winding down, there's nothing really left for St. Louis Blues fans to do other than decide whether they're rooting for Matthew Tkachuk and a couple of ex-Blues to win the Stanley Cup, or whether they'd like a Canadian team to win for the first time since 1993. The Blues themselves have been out of the conversation for over a month and, since the season is still going, things have been quiet.
Despite this, the 2024 offseason is shaping up to be one of the biggest in recent memory, but not necessarily for the reason you might think. Whether the Blues go all in and make so many deals that Ron Caron's head would spin, or they make no deals at all, the 2024 offseason will definitively prove whether the Blues are rebuilding or retooling.
The argument about what the team is doing and the difference between the two phrases has been going on for a couple seasons now. The Blues kept the last parts of the 2019 team together and it blew up in their face in 2022-23. They made a few alterations and made some small improvements for 2023-24, but it still wasn't enough to think they're a contender any time soon.
Doug Armstrong admitted his own failures in building the team when he had to fire the Cup winning Craig Berube as coach. Drew Bannister did what he could with the team, but they had the same issues even after the post-firing bump.
St. Louis Blues: To rebuild or not
So, which direction do they go this summer? Do they make trades and jump into the free agent pool or do they stand pat and promote some exciting prospects prior or during the 2024-25 season?
In poor editorial fashion, I'll say I don't know what they should do. Both have their merits and both have drawbacks.
What I do know is, whichever way Armstrong goes, he's making a decision that will impact the team for the next three to five years. Can he open up a new window or will we be waiting that long until a window can be looked through?
If Armstrong jumps into the free agent pool or makes a big trade, he is investing in the immediate future. Although there are no concrete leads, due to the season being active, there have been rumblings this might be the route the Blues take.
Take this rumor with a grain of salt, but there have been whispers that filtered down to Jeremy Rutherford, which makes them at least semi-legit, about the Blues looking into acquiring another Tkachuk. Clearly Florida is more than happy to have Matthew, so the only one potentially available is Brady Tkachuk.
Adding a player that has increased his goal totals each of the last three seasons and eclipsed the 80-point plateau once is clearly a big move. The question would be what does Ottawa expect in return.
While Jordan Kyrou has fallen out of favor with many fans, are you gaining that much if you add 37 goals compared to 31? Both players have career highs of 37 goals, with Tkachuk having the higher career high for points.
Tkachuk is younger, but not by enough to make that a deciding factor. If you could swing a deal with only Pavel Buchnevich and a draft pick going the other way, that would probably be a great deal since I'm just not sure Buchnevich is an $8 million player. That's rumored to be what he wants, so the Blues have a decision to make, whether it's a trade or re-signing him.
If the Blues have to trade away two current NHL players, I would still expect them to use the extra salary cap room in free agency. You don't add a player like Brady Tkachuk just to surround him with prospects and nothing else. That's essentially just doing what Ottawa did prior to 2023-24, just with warmer weather for him.
Will the St. Louis Blues add any new major additions?
Perhaps Armstrong doesn't have an offseason like we saw with adding Ryan O'Reilly, Tyler Bozak and Pat Maroon, but if you make a trade that size, you're pushing chips onto the table for next season. Tkachuk is under contract through 2028, but you would need to capitalize on that move quickly.
The flip side of that idea is that the Blues do nothing. Fans like myself would be upset at this idea, but it could actually make sense.
St. Louis has been busy making sure to sign actual contracts with the vast majority of players that have been drafted over the last couple summers. Not all of them are close to being NHL ready, but the Blues have restocked the cupboard very quickly.
The Blues could eventually be the NHL's version of the Swedish national team. They've drafted and signed Leo Loof, Theo Lindstein, Jakub Stancl, Simon Robertsson and Otto Stenberg.
St. Louis also has high hopes for names like Dalibor Dvorsky, Zachary Bolduc and Zach Dean and others. While you can't put all your eggs in the prospect basket, St. Louis has enough youngsters that they can pair with names like Jake Neighbours and Robert Thomas, who will both be seasoned veterans by that time, that you might still have a great mix.
The trouble with that plan is that takes time. Bolduc is likely to be on the main roster for 2024-25. Dean and Dvorsky have a shot at making the squad if they have good preseason camps too.
The rest are at least a couple years away and with anyone coming out of Europe, there is always the question of whether they stay and play pro leagues over there or come to the United States to play in the AHL. A select few have juniors as their option for the next season or two.
If the Blues do nothing in the summer of 2024, Armstrong is sending a clear message that he intends to hand the keys to this team over to that group of talented, but unproven prospects. They're all exciting at this point, but the difference between prospect and pro is vast.
I still like Kyrou, but he's a great example of how you can be a 100-point player in junior and not find that same success in the NHL. There are intangibles that don't always click with every player out of the gate.
Even if someone is talent ready for the NHL in a year or two, it might still take them another three or more years for it to all fall into place. That's the biggest reason why I, personally, have always disagreed with the fan mentality of blow it up and start over.
Look how many top draft picks the Edmonton Oilers had and it has still taken them 18 years to get back to the Final. There's no guarantee.
Making trades and signing free agents has no guarantee either, but you have a more proven track record of in-league success. As a fan, I would take that route, but that's not automatically what I think the team will do.
As disappointing as the last couple seasons have been, the Blues aren't that far off from being a playoff team. Make some strong additions in 2024 and then you give plenty of time for the prospects to truly come up when they're actually ready.
If you do nothing in 2024 and just hand the team over to the young players in 2025 and beyond, it's a double-edged sword. Maybe you get the hockey version of the Atlanta Braves where you only need to worry about signing everyone to long-term deals. Or, you could end up with the Blues under Mike Kitchen or Davis Payne, where they tried to hand it over to the youngsters with one or two vets and it got them nowhere.
For now, we can keep arguing about which way is better. Some fans will always think the Blues should just trade everyone they don't like, get more draft picks and build it back in about five years. Others, like me, want that thrill of a playoff chase, even if you're not a true championship contender.
In a month or so, we will know which way Armstrong is going. If he makes some moves, the team is looking to get back at it in 2024-25. If they stick with their current roster, it means they're investing in the prospects and the rebuild is on as they let older players just lapse out of their current deals.