3 mistakes the St. Louis Blues and Doug Armstrong cannot afford to make this offseason
St. Louis Blues general manager Doug Armstrong has a chance to turn his franchise back into a true contender for the 2024-25 season.
For a team that finished 2022-23 with 81 points and saw many key players leave that season, the St. Louis Blues didn’t backslide any further in 2023-24, even if they didn’t do enough to punch a ticket into a wild card despite enjoying an encouraging run late in the year. It shows that an organization doesn’t always need to tear everything down and rebuild, but simply restructuring could be the better way to go. Continuing with such a mentality will do general manager Doug Armstrong and the Blues well.
But when you finish the current season with 92 points, a total that would have put you in the playoffs had you been in the Eastern Conference, that also screams that you need to do anything and everything you can to return in 2025. Luckily for the Blues, they have enough talent left on this team, even in a “retool phase,” to become one of those eight teams to play in the postseason next year.
St. Louis Blues have the talent, must avoid mistakes in the offseason
Armstrong should be hoping he can do enough to catapult the Blues back into the NHL Playoffs, but doing so will require a mistake-free offseason. For one, playing in a division alongside the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, and Winnipeg Jets means Armstrong can’t just be satisfied with a good product, but a great one.
This is, of course, assuming there is no realignment with the Arizona Coyotes going inactive and their personnel heading to Utah. But even if someone like Colorado, for example, jumped to the Pacific with Utah following, St. Louis would likely find themselves competing for a spot with a team like the Edmonton Oilers. So no, it wouldn’t get any easier if the NHL swapped Colorado for Edmonton.
So what makes for a mistake-free offseason from Armstrong and company? Let’s talk about three potential errors the Blues longtime general manager cannot afford to make over the summer.
Getting the coaching hire wrong will set this franchise back
Drew Bannister performed well enough to where he’s at least getting a long look, and rightfully so. Bannister finished the year with a 30-19-5 record, good for 65 points in 54 contests and between 97 and 100 across 82 matchups. For context, the latter number suggests the Blues may have unseated the Vegas Golden Knights this season with the 82-game adjustment, even if they have the weaker lineup on paper.
If Armstrong wants to hire someone other than Bannister, he needs to make sure that the coach can lead this team to at least 100 points next year. Should he bring in someone and the Blues either regress or keep relatively the same points total, everyone will rightfully point the finger at Armstrong and shout, “Why didn’t he just keep Drew Bannister on board?”
Bringing in an experienced coach like Lindy Ruff would have been ideal, but the Buffalo Sabres got there first. That said, Ruff isn’t the only one out there who could bring in an elite standard and get the most out of the current lineup with perhaps another solid addition or two.
Overall, Bannister looks like the lower-risk, higher-reward type, so he may be the “safe selection” here. That said, it may not be worth the risk to roll with anyone else, especially if Bannister was on pace for 45 to 46 wins and 7 to 8 overtime losses. Unless he can get a seasoned veteran with a better track record, Bannister may be the guy.
Bringing back any and all unrestricted free agents
When you look at the Blues pending unrestricted free agents, they are a pedestrian few, with Kasperi Kapanen, Samuel Blais, and Marco Scandella leading the way, all of whom would do more harm than good to bring back.
One reason is that none of the above factored in as major contributors for the Blues, so opening spots in the lineup brings about one of two potential outcomes. They can either call up more prospects into full-time roles should Armstrong and his to-be-named coaching staff identify anyone ready for the NHL, or two, bring in better quality talent.
Each route has its own pros and cons, as bringing more prospects into the big club will make the team younger and open a wider potential window of success long-term. But the downside is that the Blues may not make their big return to the postseason until 2026. This may be disheartening to a fan base who saw its team get a little closer to the postseason than they may have anticipated this year.
Rolling with more established talent could put the finishing touches to fuel at least a wild card contender and that 100-point goal. But, it would also come at the expense of prospects who could otherwise be in the NHL for 2024-25.
Trading away key players won’t do Armstrong any favors
Sending the Blues into more than just a roster restructure was a major possibility before the 2024 trade deadline, and Armstrong could have reaped some monster rewards at the right price. But that should no longer be the case heading into the summer, and by the looks of things, it won’t be.
But, smokescreens can arise during this time of the year from all 32 general managers, so we can’t just assume Armstrong isn’t seriously considering trading a few players he doesn’t see playing for the Blues in 2025-26 and beyond. While doing so might make sense to some, it’s not the best idea out there, thanks to how the Blues managed to stay in contention this past year.
Despite no-trade clauses, Pavel Buchnevich, Brandon Saad, Kevin Hayes, and Nick Leddy are all players who could realistically move elsewhere, but each has played important roles for the Blues. Instead of trading those with another year or two left on their respective deals now, Armstrong would be better off waiting and seeing how this team performs in the regular season.
If the Blues don’t look like contenders as the 2025 trade deadline approaches, Armstrong should still get a good haul for a couple of those players listed above. Others like Colton Parayko and Torey Krug could also be the subject of trade talks, but again, it makes sense to wait.
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(Data provided by Hockey-Reference)