Why the St. Louis Blues have the right offseason strategy
While the St. Louis Blues have not had a flashy offseason, their strategy to add scoring depth could result in a Wild Card spot. They may not be contenders for the Stanley Cup, but they are sticking to their long term goal: to remain competitive during their current retool.
As expected, the NHL has had a very active start to the offseason. Central Division rivals have gotten in on the fun. The Nashville Predators signed big name players, the Chicago Blackhawks have added $26 million in salary, and Utah HC have overhauled their blue line. The St. Louis Blues, to their credit, have been active, but their moves appear modest in comparison. But could this more measured approach be exactly what the Blues need?
The lack of scoring depth in the 2023-24 season
Unexpectedly, the Blues found themselves competing for a playoff spot down the stretch last season. Between Drew Bannister's coaching, Robert Thomas' emergence as a 200-foot player, and the elite goaltending tandem, there are several reasons why the Blues exceeded expectations. But what kept them from claiming a Wild Card spot?
The Blues had 6 players score 20+ goals (Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich, Jake Neighbours, Brandon Saad, Robert Thomas, Brayden Schenn), but their offense dropped off after that top tier, with only 3 other players scoring 10+ goals (Alexey Toropchenko, Kevin Hayes, Colton Parayko).
For reference, the top teams in the NHL last season had ~10 players with 10+ goals, and had a relatively even split between players with 20+ goals and players with 10-19 goals. For example:
Team | Number of players with 20+ goals | Number of players with 10-19 goals |
|---|---|---|
Florida Panthers | 5 | 5 |
Edmonton Oilers | 5 | 5 |
New York Rangers | 5 | 4 |
Dallas Stars | 8 | 3 |
If the Blues want to compete, they need to improve their secondary scoring.
How the Blues are addressing their needs
Let's make some predictions about the Blues' goal-scoring in 2024-25, assuming that they roll out the roster as currently constructed.
Between Kyrou, Buchnevich, Thomas, Neighbours, and Saad, it's safe to say the Blues will have at least 5 players score 20+ goals. But what about the secondary scoring?
It's reasonable to assume that Schenn and Toropchenko will score between 10-19 goals. If given a full season, Zach Bolduc should be able to get it done, after scoring 5 goals on 38 shots in 25 games. Recent additions Alexandre Texier and Mathieu Joseph both did it last year and could do it again. Lastly, one or two of Radek Faksa, Kasperi Kapanen, Justin Faulk, and Parayko could reach double digits.
That gives the Blues 5 or 6 players with 10-19 goals - a respectable mark.
By extending Buchnevich, the Blues hold on to one of their primary goal-scorers. Signing Kapanen and trading for Mathieu Joseph, Texier, and Faksa, has allowed St. Louis to bolster its secondary scoring. Furthermore, by taking a more measured approach, Doug Armstrong and the front office have left room for young players like Bolduc to take steps forward.
No, it isn't that simple - however...
The secondary scoring issue is not the only problem the Blues have.
Defense
The blue line in St. Louis was better in 2023-24 than it gets credit for, as highlighted ina recent piece from David Crum. Still, beyond Parayko, the lack of scoring and blocking is an issue that will need to be addressed if the Blues hope to return to contention. Pierre-Olivier Joseph and solid two-way forwards Faksa and Mathieu Joseph may help next year, but in the long run, St. Louis will need to do more.
Superstar Scoring
One thing that contenders like Florida, Edmonton, Dallas, and New York have have in common is high-level scoring. Sam Reinhart, Leon Draisaitl, and Artemi Panarin provide top-tier goal-scoring that the Blues simply do not have. Perhaps Kyrou could cross the 40-goal threshold, but it certainly isn't guaranteed.
However...
Doug Armstrong and the St. Louis Blues have been very clear about the team's current situation. They have repeatedly committed to their current retool. However, they still want to remain competitive during that time, as Armstrong expressed during the Blues' press conference announcing the plan for Alex Steen to take over as General Manager.
I told our leadership group that I have a plan. Their job is to disrupt my plan. Their job is to ... [show] that we're capable to make a push.
The St. Louis Blues are not Stanley Cup contenders. However, their offseason strategy thus far has, to some extent, addressed their current needs, which may be enough to push them into contention for a playoff spot. More work is needed, but remaining competitive during the retool helps build a winning culture for young players.
The intentional, measured approach that the St. Louis Blues are using to develop their scoring depth may just be the right strategy this offseason.
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