The St. Louis Blues, against all odds, have a winning record in the eight games since the Winter Olympics break last month: they are 6-1-1, and have outscored opponents 25-14. For a team in need of some levity, winning a few games late in the season is a good morale boost for the players on the ice.
As far as the draft lottery is concerned, however, it is bordering on a disaster.
According to Tankathon at time of writing, the Blues have the fifth-best odds to win the first-overall pick at the 2026 NHL Entry Draft--that's an 8.5 percent chance. Technically, they're tied with the New York Rangers with 67 points in the standings, but the Blues have the tiebreaker with 24 regulation wins. If the Blues had the fourth-best odds, it would a 9.5 percent chance at making the first selection.
That one percent difference may seem negligible, but in reality, it can make quite a difference--one need only revisit last year's draft lottery to see why.
In 2025, the New York Islanders won the draft lottery, jumping from 11 up to number one; then, the Utah Mammoth unexpectedly won as well, catapulting from 14 to fourth (teams can't move up more than 10 spots in the lottery). That was great luck for those teams, but about the worst case scenario for the Nashville Predators and the Philadelphia Flyers, specifically. Those two teams had the third- and fourth-best odds, respectively, and then drafted fifth- and sixth-overall.
Picking as close to the top of the draft as possible is critical for rebuilding clubs. Finishing the season with the fifth-best odds is all well and good for the Blues, but they're far more likely to move back in the draft order than pick at five. This data is from last year's draft lottery, but it holds true this season as well: if the lottery were held today, the Blues have a 24.5 percent chance of selecting fifth, a 44 percent chance of falling to six, and 14.2 percent odds of dropping to seven (teams cannot fall more than two spots).
No prospect is a sure thing, regardless of draft spot, but the 2026 draft isn't as dynamic as the one's we've seen the last few years, with only one or two players separating themselves as the true cream of the crop. Moral victories late in the season are great for the players, but it could throw a wrench in the rebuild if they continue to play themselves out of the best lottery odds.