The St. Louis Blues have gotten off to a relatively confusing start to the season. After securing their first win against the Dallas Stars in their season opener, they proceeded to go on a losing streak, prompting the coaching staff to make lineup changes in an attempt to revitalize the team’s struggling offense. One of those changes involved replacing Pavel Buchnevich with Jonatan Berggren, creating a top-six opportunity for the Swedish winger.
Since then, Berggren has not only been a solid replacement but has also proven to be a terrific linemate for Mason McTavish and Connor McMichael. With the second line’s effective playmaking and offensive production, it raises the important question: With McTavish and McMichael locked up long-term, is there a spot for Berggren in that future?
Berggren’s early season production
Berggren signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Blues in the offseason, keeping him with the organization. Now that he’s beginning to develop into the player the Detroit Red Wings envisioned him becoming before placing him on waivers, and subsequently losing him to the Blues, it’s worth considering what his potential could be when given the opportunity to succeed and the faith of the coaching staff.
Heading into the season, there was a strong likelihood that the Blues would give Berggren an opportunity to prove himself, given his offensive prowess. However, following last season's inconsistencies, he needed to earn both his roster spot and playing time. Berggren has helped drive offensive production alongside McTavish and McMichael on the second line, as well as with his previous linemates, Dalibor Dvorsky and Jake Neighbours, on the third line.
Through seven games this season, Berggren has averaged 14:42 of ice time per game, recording two goals and two assists for four points. It’s also worth noting that all four points have come in consecutive order, giving him a four-game point streak. In addition to those statistics, he’s shown excellent offensive awareness, both through his playmaking ability and his ability to create shooting lanes for himself. However, the area of his game that has shown the most improvement is his defensive play.
Berggren has been an excellent defensive winger to this point of the season, showing the ability to disrupt passing lanes, apply pressure in the neutral zone, and create takeaways that have led to offensive scoring opportunities. In fact, his defensive development has earned enough recognition from the coaching staff that he has begun receiving opportunities on the penalty kill.
Berggren’s future with the Blues
The quality of Berggren’s play has been everything the Blues could’ve asked for through their opening games. He’s been terrific in the offensive zone, creating opportunities, driving the net, and making excellent passes that have generated quality scoring chances. When combined with his defensive efforts, there are plenty of positives to take away from his performance. However, when considering his overall impact, the question now becomes: What does his future look like?
If Berggren develops into a 40-50-point player this season, he could command a significant payday from the Blues to remain with the organization. For reference, and as a baseline for this article, we’ll use McTavish’s and McMichael’s contracts as a guideline: a $7 million AAV.
Assuming that contract valuation is what Berggren seeks following a productive season, general manager Alexander Steen would need to carefully evaluate the implications of an extension. By signing Berggren to a long-term deal, the Blues could effectively limit opportunities for prospects such as Justin Carbonneau, Madox Dagenais, and Dmitri Buchelnikov to earn roster spots. Given their play styles, these prospects specifically would likely benefit from a role in the top-six rather than the bottom-six roles. However, the Blues’ top six already solidified long-term, assuming they also sign Jimmy Snuggerud to an extension, Berggren’s current position could be the only remaining opening.
The thought of signing Berggren to a contract carrying a $7 million AAV isn’t necessarily unreasonable, assuming his production continues on its current trajectory. However, the biggest question would be how many years he’s been seeking. If Berggren is looking for that AAV but is willing to negotiate on term, there’s certainly a scenario in which the Blues retain him for another year or two while their prospects develop. However, if he’s seeking a long-term commitment, it seems increasingly unlikely that he’ll remain with the Blues beyond his current contract.
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