The St. Louis Blues entered play at the beginning of this season with a myriad of questions. One major point of intrigue on the roster was rookie forward Zack Bolduc and how much of an impact he could make in his first full season of play.
At the outset of the year, the question was whether Bolduc could establish himself as an everyday player worthy of ice time; now, the only question is how high he can climb.
A Zack Bolduc origin story
Last season, Bolduc only got a cup of coffee with the team as a 20-year-old prospect. He played in 25 games, registering only 9 points with 5 goals.
Bolduc looked promising with a wicked shot release, but his play style still looked raw and unrefined. His role coming into the year was a guaranteed bottom-six forward who had to scrap to remain on the roster with all the other ancillary depth forwards.
This isn't to say Bolduc was some nothing player with low expectations. Bolduc was drafted 17th overall in the 2021 NHL draft, and a first-round pick comes with expectations. The question for Bolduc was not if but when he could establish himself as at least a solid depth piece.
Defining a breakout: offense, defense, production
In his first run of play this season, Bolduc looked promising but still raw as a 21-year old rookie.
Under Drew Bannister in his first 16 games, Bolduc registered almost 183 minutes and tallied 5 assists with a plus/minus of +2. This mark is solid for such a young player, but certainly nothing more than a depth piece on a roster.
As with many things this season, everything flipped once Jim Montgomery took the helm.
Offensively, Bolduc had an excellent season for a rookie. He finished with 19 goals and 17 assists for 36 points and a plus/minus of +20 in 72 games played. This ranked him 7th in points among rookies this season and 4th in goals for that squad.
He was one goal shy of a 20-goal mark, which is very impressive for any depth forward; Zack Bolduc is only in his first season of NHL play. On top of that, he went goalless in his first 16 games with Bannister, so he put up 19 goals in only 56 games played under Montgomery.
Montgomery quickly identified Bolduc as a threat to the power play, and he ended up scoring seven of his 19 total goals.
The other category where Bolduc stood out among the crowd was defensively. Bolduc finished this year as not just one of the best defensive rookie forwards in the NHL, but one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL.
Per Money Puck, he finished first among forwards in on-ice expected goals against per 60 minutes (minimum 500 minutes TOI) and fourth in that same statistic when filtering for just 5-on-5 play.
Bolduc's plus/minus of +20 is far and away the best mark among rookies this season, double the second-place Jackson Blake (CAR). This shows Bolduc's impact as not just an offensive goalscorer but also a stalwart defensive winger.
Where does the ceiling go for Zack Bolduc?
With such an impressive rookie campaign, one can only dream of the potential heights for a player of Bolduc's caliber, draft pedigree, and age.
So what can Blues fans expect of no. 76 in the coming years? Well, one thing is for certain: Doug Armstrong and Alex Steen are going to make sure that he stays wearing the Blue Note for a long time to come.
I believe a young Zack Bolduc plays a very similar game to an all-time Blues great, with the 5th highest goals and points in franchise history. It is a lofty comparison with many expectations, but a young Zack Bolduc looks eerily similar on the ice to a young Vladimir Tarasenko.
Following the legacy of Vladimir Tarasenko
Perhaps serendipitously, Tarasenko was taken 16th overall (one pick before his potential successor) in the 2010 NHL Draft. Tarasenko was drafted as a young and fast forward with a ridiculous ability to shoot the puck. However, almost every aspect of his profile was raw and needed a lot of development.
Tarasenko received some Calder votes in his rookie season, scoring 8 goals and 19 points in 38 games, but his second season which was his first full run is also eerily similar: 61 games, 21 goals, +20.
Tarasenko scored two more goals in fewer games, but if we look at Bolduc's pace under Montgomery, the comparison becomes much stronger. Of course, both players ended with the exact same plus/minus.
A young Tarasenko was defensively great and offensively fantastic. In his later years, he leaned much more into his offensive profile, but during his prime, Tarasenko was a true two-way threat to score, and he could sure shoot on the power play as well. Tarasenko did play with more speed than Bolduc and was also very good at drawing penalties, which is not a skill Bolduc currently possesses. That being said, Bolduc is just beginning his developmental curve and already looks defensively better than prime Tarasenko.
This is a very high mark when comparing an NHL player with only 45 points in 97 career games played, but I see a lot of similarities in watching the two players on the ice grow in very similar ways. Jimmy Snuggerud and Dalibor Dvorksy have been in the minds of Blues fans for years now as the next wave of St. Louis Blues greats, but perhaps there is already a forward making an impact who will surpass the careers of his peers.