The St. Louis Blues stated they needed to upgrade somehow, once the 2024-25 season was over. They had a roster that won a franchise record number of games in a row, but that was still necessary just to get into the final wild card spot.
So, the team must be asking themselves how big do they try to go and how much of a jump can you make in one offseason. Can one player take you from the final playoff spot to a championship?
That's debatable in any summer, but it's definitely unlikely with this free agent crop. Nevertheless, you always want to improve when you can, so the prevailing fan desire is always to sign the biggest free agent out there.
In the summer of 2025, that's likely to be Mitch Marner. The current Toronto Maple Leafs winger is coming off a career-high 102 points in the regular season and 13 points in 13 playoff games.
Given that, it should be no surprise that he's rumored to be asking $12 million as a starting price for negotiations. We can have discussions about whether he's worth that, but the bottom line is that he's capable of putting up points, is the top free agent forward in 2025 and the salary cap is going up, so there's no way he doesn't get the total he wants.
Circling back to the Blues, if Marner is the best out there, should they be in on him? The simple answer is no.
For what he provides, it simply would not improve the team enough to be worth the change in the roster. It's not as simple as just plug and play.
If you factor in the likely LTIR relief the Blues will get from Torey Krug's contract, St. Louis will have a little more than $11 available in cap space. That's clearly not enough to reach Marner's rumored starting price and you know there's teams out there willing to give him more than $12 million simply because they would have to to attract him to their market.
That means you'd have to trade someone out to afford Marner. I've already suggested Pavel Buchnevich, but finding a taker might be difficult. If you listen to the horde on social media, they would still like Jordan Kyrou to be sent out. The extra $8 million in space, minus whoever you got in return, would more than make up the difference.
Why do that though? What does Marner provide that makes that potential deal worth it?
The quick answer would be points. Marner has seasons of 102, 99, 97 and 94 points under his belt. Kyrou's best is 75.
It's not as simple as that, though. Kyrou has three consecutive seasons of 30-plus goals and still seems capable of reaching 40 if he gets hot.
Marner, on the other hand, only has two 30-goal seasons to his name. Kyrou only has five full seasons in the NHL, and Marner is up to nine.
The power play goal totals for both are roughly similar if you go year by year. Outside of Kyrou's rookie year, his numbers have actually been pretty steady with not a ton of fluctuation. Marner has that 102-point season, but he's also been as low as 61 and the goals have been as low as 19 and 20 (I won't count that 16-goal year since that was during COVID).
You also have to take into consideration who Marner plays with and for. Linemates change, but when you're playing on the same team as guys like Auston Matthews, William Nylander, andJohn Tavares, it's easier to pick up points. Until Craig Berube took over as coach in 2024, the Leafs only tried to outscore their opponents, too, so Marner and his teammates weren't really asked to do much other than try to score.
When a winger has that many assists compared to goals, you have to expect a dropoff in points if the guys he's setting up won't be on the same level. It's easier to get 60-70 assists when you have a team with two 40-goal scorers and a couple others capable of picking up 30-plus.
The Blues don't and won't have that. They're a team based on team scoring, up and down the lineup, and playing defense at all positions.
Kyrou improved a lot defensively, regardless of what some would have you believe - the metrics bear it out that he was much better. So, why replace him with a player that may score less goals, play worse defense and be even more careless with the puck?
Blues fans already complain about Kyrou's defense and turnovers, but as mentioned the metrics are much improved and at his worst, Kyrou had 79 giveaways. Marner has only had fewer than 60 giveaways once in his career and is also coming off a year where he turned it over 106 times. I can't imagine Chief was happy with that, so why would Jim Montgomery want a puck coughing machine?
Where is Marner in crunch time? He just had 13 points in 13 playoff games, but he also had 13 giveaways. He had a season with 14 turnovers in 11 games. The offense can disappear too with a couple series where he only had one or zero goals.
Kyrou definitely turned the puck over too frequently against the Winnipeg Jets in 2025, but he's also got 10 goals in his last 19 playoff games, while Marner has three playoff goals in his last 20 playoff games. Even Buchnevich, who most agree has been a big disappointment as a playoff performer, has four playoff goals in 19 games with the Blues.
The reality is that if there were a way to add Marner without subtracting or shipping out a more known commodity within the roster and system you already have, the Blues would be silly not to attempt it. Given what they would have to do to alter the roster to bring him in, I don't see it as an improvement. It's a shell game where the person moving the cups is actually not guaranteed to win it at the end.
The Blues don't have the scorers that are guaranteed to finish the plays Marner might set up, so the assist totals are useless and it's just likely his assist totals will go down with any other team that's not Colorado or Edmonton. Marner scores fewer goals than the player most want to ship out, so that would be one fewer goal scorer he could even play with.
At best, the defensive abilities of Marner and Kyrou are a wash. At worst, Kyrou is better, has made the strides to improve that were asked of him and you'd be bringing in someone that often takes even less responsibility with the puck in key moments.
I get the allure. The Blues haven't had a 100-point scorer since Brendan Shanahan did it in 1993-94. That's over 30 years.
I don't see him being that kind of game changer for anyone, much less with the Blues. St. Louis needs another center, and they still need to get nastier. Marner doesn't provide that.
For the price, I'd rather keep Kyrou's goals, pay less money and add either up the middle or on defense without making the major subtraction. Marner is definitely talented, but he's not what this team needs.