The St. Louis Blues have been shut out in back-to-back games, and they've now got a 5-6-1 record through the first 12 games of the 2026-27 season. To be fair to the Blues, these most recent losses are somewhat understandable: the Carolina Hurricanes are the reigning Stanley Cup champions, and then Jacob Fowler had an outstanding 46-save game for the Montreal Canadiens. The Blues were getting their chances, but they just couldn't finish. That's become a theme of late, but there's reason to believe some positive regression is on the horizon--though it may not come in time to save Jim Montgomery's job as head coach.
Positive developments
Using Natural Stat Trick's model, the Blues are in the top half of the league in several important statistics at 5-on-5. By the skin of their teeth, they have a positive 50.80 Corsi For percentage (CF%), which is 16th in the NHL. Their expected goals-for is a tick higher at 51.55 xGF%, which comes in at 13th in the league. Even more promising, they're eighth in the league with a 55.17 High Danger Chances For percentage (HDCF%) and 14th in the league in scoring chances for with a 50.77 SCF%.
That's a lot of numbers, but it boils down to this: the process of the St. Louis Blues is sound. They are, generally speaking, out chancing and driving play better than their opponents--especially when it comes to high danger opportunities. Every one of those numbers is better than it was in the two seasons prior: the Blues are a better team now than when Montgomery arrived.
So what gives?
We've pointed out the abysmal goaltending of Jordan Binnington and why it's probably time to part ways with the veteran netminder, but there's another factor that's killing the Blues: their ability to finish plays.
Mason McTavish and Jimmy Snuggerud are tied for the team lead in goals with six apiece, but nobody else has more than three. Not everyone has to be a goal scorer, but the lack of finish from Dylan Holloway, Connor McMichael and Robert Thomas stings--they have three, two and one goal(s), respectively.
All three of them currently have some of the lowest all-situation shooting percentages and shots per 60 of their careers. In Thomas's case, his 8.3 SH% is just over half of his career average of 15.9 SH%, and his 2.7 S/60 is his lowest rate since 2020-21. It's not just these players, either--the entire team is struggling to shoot and score.
In the 2024-25 season, the Blues' team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 was 9.86, and the following season they posted a 9.79 SH%--both in the middle of the pack relative to the rest of the league. This year, their 7.75 SH% is seventh worst in the NHL.
It's a baffling drop off in shooting efficiency. The team as a whole isn't too bad with 26.7 shots per 60, good for 13th in the league, but the overall ability to finish plays has disappeared. Add in the ninth-worst team save percentage (.894), and you're looking at a lot of games lost by mediocre goaltending and an inability to score.
The good news
As we touched on earlier, the good news is simple: this iteration of the Blues is, under the hood, a better team than it was two seasons ago. They're driving play and getting more scoring chances than their opponents. Not by a wide margin, mind you, but enough to believe they should be better than their record. Unfortunately, the solution isn't a satisfying one: patience.
The Blues' big guns are going to have to lead the way, and that means shooting the puck more. Last night's loss to the Canadiens, though disappointing, was a huge step in the right direction--they were peppering Fowler all game. As Holloway, Thomas, and McMichael shoot the puck more, they're going to start going in, and that'll boost their career-low shooting percentages. We just have to hope that positive regression comes before it's too late to save the season.
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