The Blues have an important, potentially franchise-altering decision to make on Friday, June 27th, with their first-round selection at 19th overall. The Blues are entering a critical point in their timeline where roster construction moves will have to be perfect if this team wants to compete for another Stanley Cup in the near future.
Here are three reasons the Blues would be wise to stick-and-pick and make a selection at 19th overall:
Reason 1: The state of the Blues prospect system
In this upcoming draft, the Blues only have three picks (a first, a fifth, and a sixth). This means they do not have the ability to address multiple needs in the system and only have the choice to focus on one.
The Blues right now have a pretty deep but limited prospect system, with some positions that have many options, whereas other positions only run a few bodies deep.
Right now, the winger core for both the NHL team and the prospect system runs incredibly deep with multiple names of all levels of skill and pedigree. Doug Armstrong and Alex Steen built an impressive system of wingers, and that pipeline should still be flowing for at least a few years to come.
Where the organization is seriously lacking in depth is at defense and center. Center is a particularly pressing need because of the importance of the position and the need for multiple lines of competent players, of which the Blues do not necessarily have.
The only way to go about addressing this need is, of course, to make another first-round selection and fill out the system with the draft picks we do have. The high-end talent that could crack the NHL is incredibly more likely to come out of the first round, so Army and Steen should be looking to make a pick on day 1 of the draft.
Reason 2: Doug Armstrong's draft accuracy
If Doug Armstrong has earned the trust of Blues fans in any regard, it should be with his selections in the NHL Drafts. Armstrong has one of the most impressive draft records of all GMs in the NHL.
To review his tenure and accuracy in the draft, I will analyze only his first-round selections since Armstrong only has a first-round pick in the early half of the draft this year. However, even this is severely downplaying just how good at drafting Army has proven to be, missing out on key players like Jordan Kyrou, Colton Parayko, Ivan Barbashev, and Jordan Binnington.
His most recent first-round selections look promising, but they still have a way to go in their NHL careers. Some look to be the future of Blues hockey and others are serving key support roles, but just about every selection is looking to be a major hit for Armstrong (which is no small feat): Adam Jiricek (2024), Dalibor Dvorsky (2023), Otto Stenberg (2023), Theo Lindstein (2023), Jimmy Snuggerud (2022), Zack Bolduc (2021), and Jake Neighbours (2020). An impressive list of names, to be sure.
Going back to when Army was in the midst of building a Stanley Cup winning team, his draft record remains mostly great and includes two names that are running the NHL today: Dominik Bokk (2018), Robert Thomas (2017), Tage Thompson (2016).
And to start his NHL career as a general manager, Doug Armstrong managed some terrific drafts, acquiring key players for the roster for the next decade-plus of hockey. Armstrong really nailed the later rounds of the draft in this range with some of the aforementioned names, but still has some impressive names from the first round: Robby Fabbri (2014), Jordan Schmaltz (2012), Jayden Schwartz (2010), Vladimir Tarasenko (2010)
Overall, Army has proven he has quite the eye for scouting NHL-capable talent. His first-round record is comparably terrific to other NHL GMs, and especially in the last couple years has been arguably spotless. For this reason, we should trust Army in the first-round and let the Blues make their selection at 19th overall.
Reason 3: Don't overthink it
The last reason is the simplest: don't do too much. Trying to overmanage the draft and truly maximize every asset to the most minute possibility is a risky strategy that could easily blow up in their faces.
The Blues do not have a lot of draft capital, so it would be better to try a risky strategy in a year with more of a cushion, rather than gambling the whole draft on a trade up or down in the draft. They have to be careful with the limited assets they do have, and changing that plan around on draft night can be a good recipe for failure.
Sometimes, the best strategy is the one that makes the most sense, and it makes sense to not overthink the proven good decision of letting Doug Armstrong make first-round selections.
The St. Louis Blues have a big decision to make this Friday with the draft, as it could drastically alter the future of the organization. Sticking and picking at 19th overall would be a very safe and wise move for the Blues, with very little chance for a catastrophic failure.
If you are interested in who the Blues might select at 19th overall, check out the latest episode of my podcast, the Note News Podcast, where I broke down some potential names the Blues could target:
Three things are certain for the Blues organization: death, taxes, and Doug Armstrong hitting in the NHL draft. Our GM has earned as much trust as any GM can, so the organization should keep the pick at 19 and let Doug cook.