Cam Fowler just inked a three-year extension with an AAV of $6.1 million. This guarantees his future in St. Louis with defensive partner Colton Parayko as presumably the top pair.
Cam Fowler loudly announced his tenure in St. Louis with a 36-point campaign in only 51 games played. Fowler is a dynamic puck-moving defenseman who is excellent at generating primary assists and aiding on offensive chances in the opposing team's zone.
Based on what he showed last season, Fowler's extension was well-earned. If he can maintain that level of play, this will be a bargain deal for the Blues. However, there is no guarantee of that.
This deal does come with some risk attached if Fowler is unable to play at the same or a similar level for the upcoming season, and if the regression comes for Fowler, this could look like a stinker pretty quickly. Where does the true value of this contract lie, and what does the Fowler extension mean for the rest of the defense?
The likely outcome of the Fowler extension
The best-case scenario for the Blues is that Fowler is able to maintain his impressive point streak from the season previous and finish the year as one of the league's highest point-getters among defenseman; this is not the most likely outcome.
Cam Fowler is more likely to experience some regression to the mean and have more of an average season for the Blues, putting up somewhere in the 30-to-40-point total range instead of 50+. Realistically, he will serve on the top pair as a fine NHL defenseman who does well in his 5v5 minutes, but probably won't impress beyond that.
I think some regression from the absurd pace he was on last season is warranted. Pacing for over 50 points as a defenseman would have him amongst the highest in the NHL, and more likely, Fowler is just a nice NHL-level piece.
While the Fowler extension could age poorly, more likely it will turn out to be a fine NHL deal. With the rising cap, $6.1 million is not going to mean the same thing by even this time next year, and the Fowler extension could become more of an afterthought than something holding back the team.
A veteran presence on the back end
The other side of the Fowler extension that could work out quite well for the Blues is what Fowler brings to the table on the intangible side of things.
Fowler is a veteran NHL defenseman with lots of great experience to share with the younger players and help mentor them into becoming better offensive forces. This is especially relevant with guys like Philip Broberg, Logan Mailloux, and Tyler Tucker, who are all young and ascending defenseman still learning their game.
Fowler has a lot to offer on the side of generating primary assists, a critical role of any defenseman. Especially for players like Broberg and Mailloux, who have offensive upside to become something more, Fowler's presence will encourage their growth and help them achieve the heights they are capable of.
For more of a breakdown on how Fowler's extension could impact the Blues this season, check out the latest episode of my podcast, the Note News Podcast, here:
There are a lot of ways for this deal to go right for both sides, and not too many where things could get ugly. This is a relatively safe move for the Blues, and it's good they are keeping around a transitional and instrumental player to help mentor the young defenseman who are up and on the rise.