We all know the statistic: since the 2005-06 season, nearly 80 percent of teams in a playoff position at Thanksgiving will make the postseason. That means if the current standings hold for another two weeks, the St. Louis Blues will not be in a playoff spot, and the odds would be heavily against them playing hockey into the summer.
There's reason to believe the standings don't fully represent the Blues, though. First of all, they went on an absolute tear just last year to make the playoffs after a mediocre start.
Who can forget, as well, the 2018-19 team that went from the bottom of the league to Stanley Cup Champions in a few short months. Also, Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer can't be this bad forever; they're due some positive regression at some point.
Making a habit of digging yourself out of an early-season hole is no way to be taken seriously as a contender, though, and there's a reason there's so much doubt surrounding the Blues at present and for the future.
Factor in a core that might just not be good enough, and the Blues may need to take some radical action. There are three major options before them: a rebuild, a retool, and going all-in. Let's break down what each would entail and if it would make sense in the first place.
Rebuild
This may be the most extreme option, but it could be time to admit this roster's stars just aren't good enough to perenially contend for Stanley Cups. Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou are very good, even ocassionally great players--but at 26 and 27 years old, respectively, they're in their primes right now.
The Blues have some good prospects in Dalibor Dvorsky and Justin Carbonneau, but Dvorsky's only just now getting his feet wet at the NHL level, and Carbonneau's likely a few years away from being a lineup regular; they can't be counted on to turn things around in the next year or two.
Add in an aging, ineffective defense group on bloated, immovable contracts, and other veterans in decline up front, the long-term outlook for this roster is grim. This is as good as this current iteration of the Blues is going to get, and it's downhill from here. They're already showing us they're not good enough.
However, it's a complicated time to go for a full-scale rebuild: GM Doug Armstrong is stepping down this summer, and Alex Steen will become the new general manager. Perhaps part of the transition plan will involve Steen spearheading a rebuild, but that's a lot to put on the plate of a new GM's plate. Rebuilding would be a radical action for a historically even keel Blues organization, but it may be time to wave the white flag and start over from scratch.
Retool
Short of a full rebuild, the Blues could retool the roster in a way the Washington Capitals did a couple years ago en route to a major bounce-back campaign. To do this, the Blues would have to swing on some reclamation projects, and sign a couple free agents that might have more in the tank than meets the eye.
Except, the Blues already sort of retooled the roster two summers ago: they offer sheeted Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, then made a midseason trade for Cam Fowler that revitalized his career. The Blues even hired a new head coach in Jim Montgomery the moment he became available.
This summer, they signed Pius Suter and Nick Bjugstad to shore up their center depth as Brayden Schenn continues to decline and buy time for Dvorsky to take on a larger role with the team.
So, what's left for the Blues to retool? Most of next summer's big-ticket UFAs have already re-signed with their current teams, so the free agency market won't solve many problems. The Blues have decent draft assets and prospects in the system to use as part of a trade, but using premium futures for fringe moves that barely move the needle certainly isn't advisable. The retool path doesn't make much sense at this point, considering the Blues already tried it twice.
Going all-in
Of course, if the Blues decided to go all-in with this current roster, they could trade the farm and all their draft picks to try and improve. As the trade deadline approaches, they could send out some first-round picks, maybe a prospect or two, and bring in some reliable veterans to plug into the lineup. If there aren't many players available at the deadline, it could wait until the summer, too.
Long term, however, desperate moves like that would be disastrous for the health of the franchise.
Sure, adding some good players could ease the burden on the Blues' stars, but then one must ask: Are the team's stars actually good enough to win in the first place? At the moment, the answer to that question appears to be "no."
As mentioned at the top of the article, Kyrou and Thomas are in their primes now, which means now is the time to push for a championship. Except, as we've seen time and time again, the best players on the Blues just aren't good enough to match up to the other contenders in the NHL. And if that's the case, then the entire team's in trouble.
There are no easy answers for the Blues. Their star players are in their primes, their roster is littered with aging and ineffective veterans on immovable contracts, and the next wave of prospects won't be ready in time to supplement what's already here.
Of the three options, going all-in seems like the absolute worst choice. A rebuild could position the Blues better to contend for the Stanley Cup many years in the future, but that would require patience and careful execution that a smaller market like St. Louis might not be able to weather. When Steen takes over as general manager, it's likely the Blues stay the course: retool around the fringes and hope their star players are good enough to get them over the hump.
Thanksgiving is nearly here, and the Blues may have to chart a course much earlier than expected: Keep steady on, admit this season's lost and reload for next year, or commit to a teardown to start over. The clock's ticking grows louder by the day.