St. Louis Blues Face Scoring, Depth Challenges
The St. Louis Blues have proven themselves a daunting opponent against a team frequently in the first-post position in the Eastern Conference, the Tampa Bay Lightning. After a 2-1 overtime victory against the Bolts in St. Louis on a Jaden Schwartz goal, the Blues manhandled the Lightning in their own rink eight days later on their way to a 6-3 win.
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After their game against the Dallas Stars, however, the Blues have back-to-back home games against the Boston Bruins on Friday and the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday, a two-day juggernaut for any NHL team at this time. The following Tuesday, they play the Montreal Canadiens, followed by what promises to be a tough road matchup with the Winnipeg Jets, a doggedly competitive team fighting to maintain their playoff berth and finally make the playoffs. Currently in position for a wild card seed at 30-19-10, the Jets are playing far better this year than their previous three seasons, when they regularly finished their season a couple games over .500.
The first-place Nashville Predators, meanwhile, currently leading the Blues by four points, play the Philadelphia Flyers, Buffalo Sabres, Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild. That’s the difference between a combined record of 127-69-31 for the Blues’ opponents and 92-102-31 for the Preds’ opponents, or a .648 winning percentage versus a .474 winning percentage, as of the date of this posting. The way the Preds are playing right now, it is certainly conceivable they will pick up 8 out of 8 points, whereas the Blues would be doing pretty well to pick up 5 out of 8 in that same span—and could, without a great deal of effort or a bad bounce or two, do much worse.
Depth is a funny thing in sports; many teams are said to possess it, but far fewer seem able to prove it when the rubber hits the road.
The Blues will need to play their very best hockey if they are to simply keep pace with the Predators in their quest for a division title.
Fortunately, this is not as unreachable a goal as it would be for many other teams. One of the more interesting stats over the past few years involves the Blues’ dominance over Eastern opponents. In addition to having the best win-loss record over the East the past three years, this year they have the best record over Eastern foes of any team in the Western conference (17-4-2). Still, because the Blues are such East-killers, Eastern teams always seem to bring their best game against St. Louis.
Teams like the Bruins, Pens and Canadiens will always be a tough out, regardless of recent history, and while getting center Jori Lehtera back is huge, All-Star defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk’s absence is a massive void and may be having a greater effect on the team’s offensive production than on defense. When he went down, Shattenkirk’s 32 assists led all defensemen and his 24 power-play points was second among all players. The Blues were the highest-scoring team in the league both collectively and in the past several games before Shatty went down. However, in the games following his injury, the Blues have scored more than two goals in a game only twice: once in their last Tampa Bay win, and once against the hapless Sabres.
After the 2-1 win over Tampa Bay right after Shattenkirk’s injury, Blues coach Ken Hitchcock spoke of the effect that injury would have going forward, noting “[o]ur whole team dynamic has changed. What was a fourth line is now a third line.”
Depth is a funny thing in sports; many teams are said to possess it, but far fewer seem able to prove it when the rubber hits the road.
Last year the experts all extolled the monstrous depth of the Blues—until Tarasenko went out with a broken hand last year against the Preds. After that victory, St. Louis, coming out of a 7-2 tear against solid Western teams, immediately faltered, going 2-2 in their next four games before additional short-term injuries in early April doomed them to a historic 0-6 meltdown at the end that lost them not only the President’s Trophy but the #1 Conference seed and the division title in short order.
Jan 29, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) and Nashville Predators center Mike Fisher (12) battle for the puck during the first period at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
This grim run included losses against teams that rested star players because the games were meaningless. We saw both the Red Wings and the Penguins put together impressive winning streaks that same year over many weeks while crippled with injuries. Injuries are like bad coaching: you never hear about them from the teams that win, only those that lose.
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Following the uptick in scoring production in Tampa Bay, the Blues managed but one goal in regulation against the Panthers. If the Blues emerge from their Eastern homestand nine or ten points behind the Preds, the race for the division crown may be over. The Blackhawks are close behind, and to avoid opening the playoffs on the road, the Blues need to solve their offensive problems without Shattenkirk and his team-leading assist count. A rental D-man playmaker with solid power-play skills may even be a consideration if the drop in goal production continues.
No one comes to mind that the Blues would want to call up for such an important role. Cody Franson might have been a decent fit or possibility before Nashville snapped him up. The bigger names aren’t an option for the Blues given the high price tags that come with them. Even Arizona Coyotes blueliner Keith Yandle, whose 34 assists are his best talking point where the Blues are concerned, is over $5 million per year.
Andrej Sekera at $1.75 million is more in the conversation, but has half of Yandle’s assists, and the Hurricanes are likely to ask for a top prospect and/or pick in return. Granted, same-position trades are rarely to both teams’ liking, but another possibility is offering Jackman, who with only 11 assists and a $3.75 million salary is likely to be a cap hit casualty anyway. Here’s hoping, in the interim, that the Blues reclaim their league-leading scoring touch in their upcoming homestand.