Vladimir Tarasenko: What Is He Worth To The St. Louis Blues?

This is the third and final installment of a series on Vladimir Tarasenko, his prospects as the next NHL superstar and what the Blues can expect to deal with in signing him to a new contract in the off-season.

In the first installment, we looked at previous contracts the Blues had signed after an impressive season that jumped the gun, so to speak.

Next: 1/3: Is Tarasenko Another Steen, or The Next Ovechkin?

In the second piece we examined Tarasenko’s skills and scoring numbers, comparing his production to some of the all-time greats who have played the game.

Next: 2/3: Tarasenko: Hull, Meet Datsyuk

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So, how much is Tarasenko worth to the Blues? Let’s first answer that question with another: picture him coming into Scottrade wearing a Blackhawks sweater, or a Predators uniform. With Elliott or Allen still in goal.

How do you feel about that?

Is your stomach queasy just at the thought? How much is it worth not to feel that way?

Obviously a major part of the puzzle is how he does in the playoffs this season. But if last year is any indication, he will separate himself from everyone else across that venue as well.

Again.

Last year, after coming back from a hand injury that took Tarasenko out of the Blues’ last 15 games of the season, he scored 4 goals in the first four games against the Chicago Blackhawks to lead all NHL players, including two goals in Game Four’s losing effort. If the rest of his teammates had risen to his level and the Blues had advanced to the next round, he would likely have been the leading goal scorer entering the second round.

With a season like that, the kid could probably ask for $10-12 million a year and get it—if not with the Blues, with someone.

Being conservative with Tarasenko’s current numbers of 60 points in 61 games, if he finishes with 40 goals and 70 points for the year, and manages to approximate his performance in last year’s playoffs this year, a yearly salary of somewhere between $8 million per and Ovechkin’s $9.5 million per, sounds about right given the market, probably closer to Ovi’s end.

There are not a lot of players right now with a comparable age and level of performance to Tarasenko’s, but if Tarasenko is the superstar he seems to be, and that star is on the rise, Dallas Stars center Tyler Seguin might be a good point of reference. Traded by the Boston Bruins to Dallas on July 4, 2013, Seguin’s lockout-shortened 2012-13 season consisted of 16 goals and 32 points in 48 games. This was actually quite consistent with his previous 2011-12 campaign, in which he netted 21 goals and 67 points in 81 games. Based largely on these numbers, the Stars signed Seguin through 2019 at $5.5 million per year.

On the Stars, Seguin’s production exploded, and assisted in large part by his chemistry with Captain Jamie Benn, Seguin finished with 37 goals and 84 points in 80 games in 2013-14, fourth in the league in points. This year, Seguin has 29 goals and 59 points in 55 games. The Stars have the best deal in hockey right now, and it would likely be difficult to find a player with those numbers over the past two years who would sign for less than $7.5 million per today. Seguin, like Tarasenko, is 23. Like Seguin, Tarasenko is averaging a point a game, and is actually ranked above Seguin in both goals and assists.

However, unlike Seguin, it has taken Tarasenko only three NHL seasons to rise to this level of production, and unlike Seguin, whose numbers shot up only after he was traded to another team, Tarasenko is rising with the same team he started with.

It would be surprising—some would say astonishing—to see Tarasenko ask for more than $10 million per year, but it is not inconceivable, especially if he finishes strong, with say 50 or more goals, 90 or more points, and scores 8 or 10 goals in 2-3 playoff series. With a season like that, the kid could probably ask for $10-12 million a year and get it—if not with the Blues, with someone.

This is especially true if you see Tarasenko more as a Gretzky or Lemieux who is just getting started, rather than as someone who may be peaking in terms of his numbers right now.

What to do? That is a massive amount of money for one player, and with cap space issues already knocking at the Blues’ door, some hard decisions will have to be made. Fortunately, a couple of them are or should be easy enough to make even if signing Tarasenko weren’t an issue this off-season.

Cap Space And “Expendables”

Let’s start with the most basic numbers. According to spotrac.com, the St. Louis Blues are ranked 20th in terms of available cap space out of the 30 NHL teams. According to Spotrac.com, their total available cap space is a paltry $1,629,656. Moreover, while most other teams have between 25-28 active players, the Blues have only 24, and only 9 other clubs have as few active players or fewer than the Blues.

As our own Kate Cimini disclosed in last week’s editorial piece on the trade deadline and the Blues’ assets, Patrik Berglund, with under 20 points to his credit, costs the Blues $3.7 million per year and has a three-year contract in place. Her research on his UA Corsi/Against 60 numbers also revealed that Berglund is a top-notch shutdown defender, and probably worth keeping around this year, especially while blueliner Kevin Shattenkirk is out.

Next: What Do The Blues Have To Sell?

But in the off-season, at that price, Berglund, as he has been for many Blues fans for a few years now, is definitely an expendable commodity.

The other expendable asset who will almost certainly be—and really should be—a cap space casualty in the off-season is blueliner Barrett Jackman. His salary is $9.5 million for three years, or a 2014-15 cap hit of $3.166,666.67. Jackman entered the NHL with the Blues in his rookie season playing beside Al MacInnis, leading to all kinds of accolades about him being the Second Coming of Larry Robinson.

Once MacInnis retired we saw Jackman for what he really was: an average blueliner with no scoring touch and a propensity for making precisely the wrong play or pass at critical moments: a trait he has never disabused himself of in his many years in St. Louis.

Feb 17, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues defenseman Barret Jackman (5) and Dallas Stars left wing Antoine Roussel (21) fight during the third period at Scottrade Center. The Dallas Stars defeat the St. Louis Blues 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The core of the St. Louis Blues, the group of guys who hold and have held this team together for the past several years are Oshie, Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Backes, and Steen, and based on their performance this year, none of those players should be moved or have their agreements reworked. (Though a special “dumb penalty” clause for Backes might be worth considering.)

Paul Stastny, on the other hand, now 29 years old, provides another point of reference. Signed last year at $28 million for four years, Stastny’s 11 goals and 33 points in 52 games this year do not really seem to add up to $7,000,000. If Tarasenko with 31 goals in his third year has already bested Stastny’s career-high of 28 and is on-pace to end up with more points at the end of this year than Stastny has ever gotten, then Tarasenko is worth at least $9 million per, or Stastny’s numbers need to come down.

In addition, the future of the Blues may well rest in the STL line of Schwartz, Tarasenko and Lehtera, and these three players will all need to be compensated for the substantial worth they bring to this hockey club. But Tarasenko, above anyone else, needs to be a Blue next year. If you are comfortable with the image of him wearing a Blackhawks or a Preds jersey next year, go ahead and put a number down from which the Blues should walk away. But you better have someone named Stamkos or Malkin lined up to spend that money on in his place.

Let us know your thoughts on all this, we want to hear what Blues fans are thinking about it!

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