Vladimir Tarasenko In League Of His Own

After the St. Louis Blues not only dismantled and humiliated the Minnesota Wild in front of their fans but chased first-year marvel Devan Dubnyk in the second period after mounting a 6-1 lead on only 18 shots, the significance of Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko’s two goals might be overlooked.

It shouldn’t be.

Ovechkin. Kane. Malkin. None of those names are near the top of the list of goal scorers in the 2014-15 NHL playoffs. Instead, the 23-year-old Siberian sniper Tarasenko now has 5 goals in 4 games, and sits alone in first place in the playoffs scoring derby ahead of Nashville Predator Colin Wilson, who has scored 4 goals. With 6 points he is also one point behind NHL co-leaders Corey Perry of the Anaheim Ducks and teammate Kevin Shattenkirk for total points, each with 7.

In Game Two of the Blues’ series with the Wild, Tarasenko scored a hat trick, including two goals with Dubnyk in net. In Game Three the Wild suffocated the Blues, and held Tarasenko shotless.

In Game Four, Tarasenko had three shots against Dubnyk, and two of them went in. His second goal was a spectacular encore of his famously sick forehand-to-backhand tuck goal (aka the “Forsberg Move”) against the New York Rangers on November 3, 2014. Our Kate Cimini posted this GIF and article about the goal.

Peaking Now Or Just Getting Started?

With five goals already in four games, he has exceeded his entire output in the six-game series against Chicago last year. This reflects an important distinction I mentioned in a piece earlier in the year on Tarasenko: he is either peaking now, or we are only beginning to see what he is capable of.

None of the evidence indicates the former.

Some of the greatest to ever play the game have had, at least for them, “slow” starts. Wayne Gretzky, for example, scored 43 goals his first year, and notched 51 and 55 respectively in his next two seasons before setting the all-time NHL record for 92 goals and 212 points (a record he would best four years later when he would average over 200 points per season over a five-year span).

Similarly, Mario Lemieux put up the relatively humble numbers of 43 goals and 100 points his rookie year, before eventually amassing 70 and 85 goals respectively in consecutive years (including a monster 199-point season in 1988-89).

Scientists and researchers point to the “reproducibility” of results as the key to the validity of findings. In Vladi’s first postseason campaign last year he averaged .67 goals per game in a six-game series. This year, in four games, he has thus far averaged 1.25 goals per game. That means he has averaged .902 goals per game over the two postseasons.

By comparison, last season’s NHL leader in playoff goals, Marian Gaborik with the Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings, notched 14 goals in 26 playoff games, or .538 goals per game. The year before, Patrick Sharp with the Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks was the only player in double-digits, with 10 goals in 23 games.

Vladimir Tarasenko already has half that total. In his first series.

Granted, you can make the argument that scoring gets harder with each round as the quality of the opponent at least in theory should increase. And players’ success varies widely from game to game, let alone from series to series. The fact Tarasenko has scored five goals in this series in no way assumes he will match that total—or even score at all—in the next series.

Apr 18, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Minnesota Wild during the first period in game two of the first round of the the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

But everything to this point strongly suggests he will not be held off the scoreboard very long, regardless of the person between the pipes and the team he is playing. He scored 37 goals during the regular season and that wealth was spread around. His most spectacular goal of the season was against the Presidents’ Trophy-winning New York Rangers (albeit without Lundqvist in goal).

“Clutch” Means The Playoffs, Buddy

It is really not possible to overestimate the importance of the fact that Tarasenko, as a regular-season juggernaut on the ice, saves his very best for the postseason. As invaluable as top scorers are to a team during the regular season, if their performance in the playoffs is not on par with their production in the regular season, the result is usually devastating, and more often than not leads to an early exit.

A team’s strength and value to its fan base—and, ultimately, its profits—are measured in terms of the playoffs. There are many great players, even superstars, who have simply never matched their regular-season numbers come playoff time.

But the most impressive part of his game may be the way he is starting to master the art of the tip-in. His first goal in Game Two was pure Dino Ciccarelli, tipping it in even as he was being pushed over.

Alexander Ovechkin, the overall top regular-season scorer in the NHL as long as he has played, is a prime example. Except for the 2008-09 campaign when he notched 11 goals and 21 points in 14 playoff games, he has been far from stellar. Over the past four playoff campaigns, including this year’s, Ovechkin has lit the lamp 13 times in 34 playoff games, a bit better than one goal every three games.

Steven Stamkos is another, though he has had considerably fewer opportunities than Ovi. In three playoff campaigns, including this year’s, the Bolts’ sniper has scored 8 goals in 25 games. Again, Tarasenko has scored 9 times in only 10 games.

Our own Kate Cimini posted excerpts from a radio interview yesterday with Wayne Gretzky on the Imig, Montez and Moe Show on CBS Sports 920, in which the Great One, talking about the Blues and Tarasenko, said the following:

“When you get into the playoffs, the best players have to be the best players . . . I look for Tarasenko to have a big game for them tomorrow night. He’s a guy that’s gotta [sic] get that big goal . . . I had a coach that told me, ‘It doesn’t matter how many goals you get in the playoffs, it’s about getting that big goal or that big play at the right time that gives your team the lift.’ And that’s what’s imperative.”

Both last year and this year, Tarasenko has come up time and again with those big goals. Last night he scored the second goal that really put the Wild on their heels and gave the Blues the confidence to go after more. In Game Two he scored the first two goals within five minutes of each other in the first period.

In the pivotal Game Four loss to the Blackhawks last year that would have put the Blues up 3 games to 1 if they had won, Tarasenko scored twice, first when the Blues were down 2-0 to trigger three consecutive Blues goals, including his own in the third period to put the Blues up 3-2, but it wasn’t enough to win.

One of the things that makes Tarasenko so deadly is how multi-dimensional his play is. His soft hands and touch allow him to effortlessly deke d-men out of their uniforms with the fluidity of a Datsyuk, yet he also has a big shot and can execute his deadly laser wrister and one-timer from the face-off circles, the slot, or inside the blue line. He undressed Dubnyk in Game Two by putting the puck right in the tiny space he was cheating on the near post on a high, sharp-angle shot.

Getting the Blues to the next round and beyond will ultimately be the proof in the pudding as to just how far Vladi can take the St. Louis Blues on his shoulders and lead them to the Promised Land. But at this point, the only thing that has been able to stop him from scoring and scoring in the playoffs is his team’s elimination. Until that time, Vladimir Tarasenko has emerged as the NHL’s preeminent game-changer in the playoffs.

Let us know your thoughts, Blues fans!

Dec 13, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) attempts to get a shot over Colorado Avalanche goalie Calvin Pickard (31) as defenseman Erik Johnson (6) falls down in the third period at the Pepsi Center. The Blues defeated the Avalanche 3-2 in a overtime period. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

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